Da 1-1 (9-06) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released September 18, 2006, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Jason Hardegree at 202-720-3278, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. August Milk Production Up 1.6 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during August totaled 13.9 billion pounds, up 1.6 percent from August 2005. July revised production, at 13.9 billion pounds, was up 1.5 percent from July 2005. The July revision represented an increase of 6 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,680 pounds for August, 9 pounds above August 2005. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.25 million head, 88,000 head more than August 2005, but 9,000 head less than July 2006. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : From : : : : : : : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,002 9,094 4,816 5,009 43,350 45,553 5.1 Apr-Jun : 9,041 9,135 5,069 5,134 45,831 46,902 2.3 Jul-Sep : 9,060 4,871 44,134 Oct-Dec : 9,060 4,821 43,674 : Annual : 9,041 19,576 176,989 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : from : : : : : : : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,087 8,195 1,643 1,710 13,287 14,014 5.5 Feb : 8,084 8,206 1,522 1,587 12,301 13,022 5.9 Mar : 8,099 8,228 1,707 1,775 13,825 14,604 5.6 Apr : 8,117 8,240 1,690 1,727 13,717 14,228 3.7 May : 8,131 8,257 1,760 1,780 14,311 14,700 2.7 Jun : 8,138 8,269 1,690 1,695 13,755 14,017 1.9 Jul : 8,151 8,259 1,683 1,686 13,715 13,925 1.5 Aug : 8,162 8,250 1,671 1,680 13,640 13,861 1.6 Sep : 8,167 1,599 13,057 Oct : 8,168 1,637 13,373 Nov : 8,167 1,592 13,002 Dec : 8,179 1,663 13,599 : Annual : 8,138 19,857 161,582 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2006 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : From : : : : : : : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,000 9,079 1,624 1,689 14,614 15,333 4.9 Feb : 8,996 9,091 1,504 1,567 13,530 14,248 5.3 Mar : 9,009 9,113 1,688 1,753 15,206 15,972 5.0 Apr : 9,030 9,118 1,666 1,704 15,047 15,538 3.3 May : 9,042 9,137 1,735 1,757 15,697 16,055 2.3 Jun : 9,050 9,147 1,668 1,674 15,087 15,309 1.5 Jul : 9,053 9,135 1,656 1,664 14,978 15,205 1.5 Aug : 9,060 9,125 1,643 1,658 14,896 15,126 1.5 Sep : 9,066 1,572 14,260 Oct : 9,060 1,613 14,611 Nov : 9,056 1,569 14,209 Dec : 9,063 1,639 14,854 : Annual : 9,041 19,576 176,989 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2005 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, August 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : From : : : : : : : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 161 167 1,770 1,715 285 286 0.4 CA : 1,759 1,768 1,795 1,860 3,157 3,288 4.1 CO : 105 112 1,970 1,990 207 223 7.7 FL : 135 130 1,230 1,255 166 163 -1.8 ID : 468 495 1,940 1,960 908 970 6.8 IL : 104 103 1,515 1,550 158 160 1.3 IN : 157 165 1,660 1,625 261 268 2.7 IA : 196 200 1,740 1,645 341 329 -3.5 KS : 112 113 1,690 1,730 189 195 3.2 KY : 106 97 1,030 1,020 109 99 -9.2 MI : 314 319 1,830 1,830 575 584 1.6 MN : 450 450 1,510 1,525 680 686 0.9 MO : 115 115 1,300 1,185 150 136 -9.3 NM : 331 362 1,825 1,780 604 644 6.6 NY : 647 643 1,600 1,605 1,035 1,032 -0.3 OH : 270 274 1,460 1,480 394 406 3.0 OR : 121 121 1,630 1,570 197 190 -3.6 PA : 562 554 1,575 1,580 885 875 -1.1 TX : 320 337 1,625 1,655 520 558 7.3 VT : 143 141 1,550 1,510 222 213 -4.1 VA : 105 103 1,360 1,360 143 140 -2.1 WA : 245 237 1,970 1,955 483 463 -4.1 WI : 1,236 1,244 1,595 1,570 1,971 1,953 -0.9 : 23-State : Total : 8,162 8,250 1,671 1,680 13,640 13,861 1.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, July 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : From : : : : : : : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 162 170 1,865 1,805 302 307 1.7 CA : 1,756 1,772 1,780 1,760 3,126 3,119 -0.2 CO : 105 112 1,960 1,980 206 222 7.8 FL : 136 131 1,315 1,340 179 176 -1.7 ID : 460 490 1,960 1,960 902 960 6.4 IL : 104 103 1,580 1,600 164 165 0.6 IN : 156 166 1,700 1,670 265 277 4.5 IA : 193 200 1,720 1,690 332 338 1.8 KS : 112 113 1,695 1,720 190 194 2.1 KY : 106 97 1,065 1,060 113 103 -8.8 MI : 313 321 1,850 1,875 579 602 4.0 MN : 455 450 1,510 1,560 687 702 2.2 MO : 117 115 1,360 1,270 159 146 -8.2 NM : 328 362 1,845 1,880 605 681 12.6 NY : 647 647 1,600 1,605 1,035 1,038 0.3 OH : 270 274 1,480 1,500 400 411 2.8 OR : 121 121 1,640 1,580 198 191 -3.5 PA : 561 555 1,590 1,600 892 888 -0.4 TX : 320 335 1,710 1,760 547 590 7.9 VT : 143 141 1,565 1,540 224 217 -3.1 VA : 105 103 1,390 1,390 146 143 -2.1 WA : 245 237 1,985 1,960 486 465 -4.3 WI : 1,236 1,244 1,600 1,600 1,978 1,990 0.6 : 23-State : Total : 8,151 8,259 1,683 1,686 13,715 13,925 1.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2005 and 2006 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 April - June quarters is 0.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final April - June estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.14 million head by more than 0.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.3 percent. Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.4 0.7 328 125 3 264 4 6 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.2 0.3 27 12 0 34 4 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch(202) 720-3570 William Weaver, Head, Livestock Section (202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess - Hogs and Pigs(202) 720-3106 Shawn Clark - Dairy Products(202) 690-3236 Jason Hardegree - Milk Production and Milk Cows(202) 720-3278 Scott Hollis - Sheep & Lambs, Goats(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Cattle, Cattle on Feed(202) 720-3040 Katy Paulsen - Livestock Slaughter(515) 284-4340 Charmaine Wilson - Dairy Products Prices(202) 690-2168 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. 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