Da 1-1 (11-06) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released November 17, 2006, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Jason Hardegree at 202-720-3278, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. October Milk Production Up 2.1 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during October totaled 13.7 billion pounds, up 2.1 percent from October 2005. September revised production, at 13.3 billion pounds, was up 2.0 percent from September 2005. The September revision represented a decrease of 6 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,656 pounds for October, 19 pounds above October 2005. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.25 million head, 78,000 head more than October 2005, and 2,000 head more than September 2006. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : From : : : : : : : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,002 9,094 4,816 5,009 43,350 45,553 5.1 Apr-Jun : 9,041 9,133 5,069 5,136 45,831 46,908 2.3 Jul-Sep : 9,060 9,117 4,871 4,906 44,134 44,731 1.4 Oct-Dec : 9,060 4,821 43,674 : Annual : 9,041 19,576 176,989 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : from : : : : : : : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,087 8,195 1,643 1,710 13,287 14,014 5.5 Feb : 8,084 8,206 1,522 1,587 12,301 13,022 5.9 Mar : 8,099 8,228 1,707 1,775 13,825 14,604 5.6 Apr : 8,117 8,240 1,690 1,727 13,717 14,228 3.7 May : 8,131 8,257 1,760 1,780 14,311 14,700 2.7 Jun : 8,138 8,269 1,690 1,695 13,755 14,017 1.9 Jul : 8,151 8,259 1,683 1,686 13,715 13,925 1.5 Aug : 8,162 8,252 1,671 1,680 13,640 13,861 1.6 Sep : 8,167 8,244 1,599 1,615 13,057 13,312 2.0 Oct : 8,168 8,246 1,637 1,656 13,373 13,652 2.1 Nov : 8,167 1,592 13,002 Dec : 8,179 1,663 13,599 : Annual : 8,138 19,857 161,582 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2006 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : From : : : : : : : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,000 9,079 1,624 1,689 14,614 15,333 4.9 Feb : 8,996 9,091 1,504 1,567 13,530 14,248 5.3 Mar : 9,009 9,113 1,688 1,753 15,206 15,972 5.0 Apr : 9,030 9,120 1,666 1,704 15,047 15,541 3.3 May : 9,042 9,135 1,735 1,758 15,697 16,056 2.3 Jun : 9,050 9,145 1,668 1,674 15,087 15,311 1.5 Jul : 9,053 9,129 1,656 1,661 14,978 15,159 1.2 Aug : 9,060 9,116 1,643 1,655 14,896 15,085 1.3 Sep : 9,066 9,105 1,572 1,591 14,260 14,487 1.6 Oct : 9,060 9,107 1,613 1,631 14,611 14,856 1.7 Nov : 9,056 1,569 14,209 Dec : 9,063 1,639 14,854 : Annual : 9,041 19,576 176,989 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2005 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, October 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : From : : : : : : : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 161 166 1,840 1,815 296 301 1.7 CA : 1,765 1,776 1,785 1,815 3,151 3,223 2.3 CO : 106 112 1,870 1,920 198 215 8.6 FL : 135 129 1,135 1,145 153 148 -3.3 ID : 470 497 1,870 1,880 879 934 6.3 IL : 104 103 1,510 1,550 157 160 1.9 IN : 155 165 1,685 1,640 261 271 3.8 IA : 198 200 1,690 1,670 335 334 -0.3 KS : 112 112 1,680 1,680 188 188 KY : 103 95 1,040 1,090 107 104 -2.8 MI : 313 321 1,790 1,850 560 594 6.1 MN : 450 450 1,475 1,510 664 680 2.4 MO : 114 115 1,280 1,240 146 143 -2.1 NM : 335 360 1,760 1,675 590 603 2.2 NY : 650 638 1,550 1,575 1,008 1,005 -0.3 OH : 270 274 1,430 1,470 386 403 4.4 OR : 121 117 1,560 1,580 189 185 -2.1 PA : 558 552 1,550 1,600 865 883 2.1 TX : 320 338 1,605 1,660 514 561 9.1 VT : 142 140 1,505 1,485 214 208 -2.8 VA : 105 103 1,370 1,350 144 139 -3.5 WA : 243 237 1,925 1,930 468 457 -2.4 WI : 1,238 1,246 1,535 1,535 1,900 1,913 0.7 : 23-State : Total : 8,168 8,246 1,637 1,656 13,373 13,652 2.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, September 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : From : : : : : : : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 161 165 1,725 1,710 278 282 1.4 CA : 1,762 1,772 1,750 1,775 3,084 3,145 2.0 CO : 106 112 1,875 1,910 199 214 7.5 FL : 134 129 1,105 1,110 148 143 -3.4 ID : 469 497 1,850 1,860 868 924 6.5 IL : 104 103 1,450 1,485 151 153 1.3 IN : 156 165 1,615 1,595 252 263 4.4 IA : 197 200 1,665 1,590 328 318 -3.0 KS : 112 113 1,610 1,630 180 184 2.2 KY : 105 96 980 1,010 103 97 -5.8 MI : 313 319 1,750 1,795 548 573 4.6 MN : 450 450 1,435 1,470 646 662 2.5 MO : 115 115 1,210 1,180 139 136 -2.2 NM : 333 360 1,710 1,650 569 594 4.4 NY : 649 640 1,515 1,530 983 979 -0.4 OH : 270 274 1,420 1,450 383 397 3.7 OR : 121 118 1,570 1,570 190 185 -2.6 PA : 561 553 1,500 1,560 842 863 2.5 TX : 320 338 1,515 1,585 485 536 10.5 VT : 142 140 1,480 1,460 210 204 -2.9 VA : 105 103 1,325 1,300 139 134 -3.6 WA : 245 237 1,895 1,880 464 446 -3.9 WI : 1,237 1,245 1,510 1,510 1,868 1,880 0.6 : 23-State : Total : 8,167 8,244 1,599 1,615 13,057 13,312 2.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2005 and 2006 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 July - September quarters is 0.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final July - September estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.12 million head by more than 0.3 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.5 percent. Reliability of July-September Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.5 0.9 403 180 62 362 7 3 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.3 0.5 46 17 2 61 6 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 July-September quarters. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch(202) 720-3570 William Weaver, Head, Livestock Section (202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess - Hogs and Pigs(202) 720-3106 Shawn Clark - Dairy Products(202) 690-3236 Jason Hardegree - Milk Production and Milk Cows(202) 720-3278 Scott Hollis - Sheep & Lambs, Goats(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Cattle, Cattle on Feed(202) 720-3040 Katy Paulsen - Livestock Slaughter(515) 284-4340 Charmaine Wilson - Dairy Products Prices(202) 690-2168 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. 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