Da 1-1 (1-07) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 18, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Jason Hardegree at 202-720-3278, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. December Milk Production Up 2.7 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during December totaled 14.0 billion pounds, up 2.7 percent from December 2005. November revised production, at 13.3 billion pounds, was up 2.6 percent from November 2005. The November revision represented an increase of 13 million pounds or 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,689 pounds for December, 26 pounds above December 2005. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.27 million head, 86,000 head more than December 2005, and 14,000 head more than November 2006. October - December Milk Production Up 2.2 Percent Milk production in the U.S. during the October - December quarter totaled 44.6 billion pounds, up 2.2 percent from the October - December quarter last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the quarter was 9.12 million head, 56,000 head more than the same period last year. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : From : : : : : : : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,002 9,094 4,816 5,009 43,350 45,553 5.1 Apr-Jun : 9,041 9,133 5,069 5,136 45,831 46,908 2.3 Jul-Sep : 9,060 9,117 4,871 4,907 44,134 44,739 1.4 Oct-Dec : 9,060 9,116 4,821 4,897 43,674 44,639 2.2 : Annual : 9,041 9,115 19,576 19,949 176,989 181,839 2.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : from : : : : : : : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,087 8,195 1,643 1,710 13,287 14,014 5.5 Feb : 8,084 8,206 1,522 1,587 12,301 13,022 5.9 Mar : 8,099 8,228 1,707 1,775 13,825 14,604 5.6 Apr : 8,117 8,240 1,690 1,727 13,717 14,228 3.7 May : 8,131 8,257 1,760 1,780 14,311 14,700 2.7 Jun : 8,138 8,269 1,690 1,695 13,755 14,017 1.9 Jul : 8,151 8,259 1,683 1,686 13,715 13,925 1.5 Aug : 8,162 8,252 1,671 1,680 13,640 13,861 1.6 Sep : 8,167 8,244 1,599 1,615 13,057 13,312 2.0 Oct : 8,168 8,245 1,637 1,656 13,373 13,652 2.1 Nov : 8,167 8,251 1,592 1,617 13,002 13,341 2.6 Dec : 8,179 8,265 1,663 1,689 13,599 13,963 2.7 : Annual : 8,138 8,243 19,857 20,216 161,582 166,639 3.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2006 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : From : : : : : : : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,000 9,079 1,624 1,689 14,614 15,333 4.9 Feb : 8,996 9,091 1,504 1,567 13,530 14,248 5.3 Mar : 9,009 9,113 1,688 1,753 15,206 15,972 5.0 Apr : 9,030 9,120 1,666 1,704 15,047 15,541 3.3 May : 9,042 9,135 1,735 1,758 15,697 16,056 2.3 Jun : 9,050 9,145 1,668 1,674 15,087 15,311 1.5 Jul : 9,053 9,127 1,656 1,661 14,978 15,159 1.2 Aug : 9,060 9,116 1,643 1,655 14,896 15,088 1.3 Sep : 9,066 9,107 1,572 1,591 14,260 14,492 1.6 Oct : 9,060 9,108 1,613 1,634 14,611 14,880 1.8 Nov : 9,056 9,113 1,569 1,596 14,209 14,542 2.3 Dec : 9,063 9,126 1,639 1,667 14,854 15,217 2.4 : Annual : 9,041 9,115 19,576 19,949 176,989 181,839 2.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2006 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, December 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : From : : : : : : : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 163 168 1,965 1,995 320 335 4.7 CA : 1,771 1,785 1,795 1,850 3,179 3,302 3.9 CO : 105 114 1,890 1,910 198 218 10.1 FL : 135 130 1,360 1,360 184 177 -3.8 ID : 472 500 1,830 1,820 864 910 5.3 IL : 104 103 1,570 1,620 163 167 2.5 IN : 158 166 1,715 1,690 271 281 3.7 IA : 200 205 1,725 1,725 345 354 2.6 KS : 111 111 1,730 1,750 192 194 1.0 KY : 102 94 1,110 1,145 113 108 -4.4 MI : 312 324 1,820 1,860 568 603 6.2 MN : 445 455 1,545 1,575 688 717 4.2 MO : 114 115 1,380 1,300 157 150 -4.5 NM : 339 360 1,780 1,690 603 608 0.8 NY : 650 629 1,545 1,565 1,004 984 -2.0 OH : 273 274 1,430 1,485 390 407 4.4 OR : 121 116 1,490 1,580 180 183 1.7 PA : 557 549 1,580 1,620 880 889 1.0 TX : 324 345 1,720 1,770 557 611 9.7 VT : 143 140 1,535 1,535 220 215 -2.3 VA : 104 100 1,440 1,480 150 148 -1.3 WA : 237 235 1,910 1,890 453 444 -2.0 WI : 1,239 1,247 1,550 1,570 1,920 1,958 2.0 : 23-State : Total : 8,179 8,265 1,663 1,689 13,599 13,963 2.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, November 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : From : : : : : : : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 161 167 1,850 1,830 298 306 2.7 CA : 1,770 1,781 1,725 1,760 3,053 3,135 2.7 CO : 105 113 1,820 1,870 191 211 10.5 FL : 136 130 1,220 1,240 166 161 -3.0 ID : 471 497 1,790 1,790 843 890 5.6 IL : 104 103 1,480 1,510 154 156 1.3 IN : 157 166 1,650 1,610 259 267 3.1 IA : 199 200 1,640 1,650 326 330 1.2 KS : 112 112 1,650 1,660 185 186 0.5 KY : 102 95 1,030 1,060 105 101 -3.8 MI : 312 323 1,745 1,790 544 578 6.3 MN : 445 450 1,455 1,495 647 673 4.0 MO : 114 115 1,280 1,250 146 144 -1.4 NM : 337 360 1,720 1,650 580 594 2.4 NY : 648 633 1,485 1,535 962 972 1.0 OH : 271 274 1,410 1,440 382 395 3.4 OR : 121 117 1,470 1,530 178 179 0.6 PA : 556 550 1,500 1,560 834 858 2.9 TX : 321 341 1,630 1,680 523 573 9.6 VT : 142 140 1,465 1,445 208 202 -2.9 VA : 105 102 1,370 1,365 144 139 -3.5 WA : 240 235 1,840 1,815 442 427 -3.4 WI : 1,238 1,247 1,480 1,495 1,832 1,864 1.7 : 23-State : Total : 8,167 8,251 1,592 1,617 13,002 13,341 2.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2005 and 2006 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised July-September, 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jul-Sep Milk Cows 1/ : Jul-Sep Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds --- Percent : AL : 16 14 47 41 -12.8 AK : 1.1 0.8 3.4 2.7 -20.6 AZ : 161 167 865 875 1.2 AR : 22 20 73 61 -16.4 CA : 1,759 1,771 9,367 9,554 2.0 CO : 105 112 612 659 7.7 CT : 20 19 92 86 -6.5 DE : 7.5 7 32.3 29 -10.2 FL : 135 130 493 472 -4.3 GA : 81 76 310 312 0.6 HI : 5.3 4.2 17.4 14 -19.5 ID : 466 495 2,678 2,858 6.7 IL : 104 103 473 478 1.1 IN : 156 165 778 808 3.9 IA : 195 200 1,001 985 -1.6 KS : 112 113 559 575 2.9 KY : 106 96 325 295 -9.2 LA : 34 31 88 80 -9.1 ME : 33 32 151 146 -3.3 MD : 72 70 281 266 -5.3 MA : 16 15.5 72 68 -5.6 MI : 313 320 1,702 1,759 3.3 MN : 452 450 2,013 2,050 1.8 MS : 25 22 81 70 -13.6 MO : 116 115 448 418 -6.7 MT : 19 18 95 87 -8.4 NE : 60 61 263 275 4.6 NV : 25 27 137 139 1.5 NH : 16 15 74 71 -4.1 NJ : 12 11 47 41 -12.8 NM : 331 361 1,778 1,919 7.9 NY : 648 643 3,053 3,049 -0.1 NC : 54 50 248 217 -12.5 ND : 32 31 132 119 -9.8 OH : 270 274 1,177 1,214 3.1 OK : 75 72 311 300 -3.5 OR : 121 120 585 566 -3.2 PA : 561 554 2,619 2,626 0.3 RI : 1.1 1.1 4.7 4.7 SC : 17 17 61 62 1.6 SD : 81 81 358 380 6.1 TN : 69 65 250 233 -6.8 TX : 320 337 1,552 1,684 8.5 UT : 88 86 427 456 6.8 VT : 143 141 656 634 -3.4 VA : 105 103 428 415 -3.0 WA : 245 237 1,433 1,382 -3.6 WV : 13 13 48 49 2.1 WI : 1,236 1,244 5,817 5,823 0.1 WY : 5.0 6.8 18.5 31.3 69.2 : US 3/ : 9,060 9,117 44,134 44,739 1.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary October-December, 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Oct-Dec Milk Cows 1/ : Oct-Dec Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds --- Percent : AL : 15 13 50 46 -8.0 AK : 0.9 0.7 2.7 2.2 -18.5 AZ : 162 167 914 942 3.1 AR : 21 19 67 62 -7.5 CA : 1,769 1,781 9,383 9,660 3.0 CO : 105 113 587 644 9.7 CT : 20 19 92 89 -3.3 DE : 7.1 7 29.8 30 0.7 FL : 135 130 503 491 -2.4 GA : 79 75 327 330 0.9 HI : 5.1 4 15.5 12.2 -21.3 ID : 471 498 2,586 2,729 5.5 IL : 104 103 474 483 1.9 IN : 157 166 791 819 3.5 IA : 199 202 1,006 1,018 1.2 KS : 112 112 565 568 0.5 KY : 102 95 325 309 -4.9 LA : 32 30 93 86 -7.5 ME : 32 32 142 141 -0.7 MD : 71 70 281 270 -3.9 MA : 16 15.5 69 65 -5.8 MI : 312 323 1,672 1,775 6.2 MN : 447 452 1,999 2,070 3.6 MS : 24 22 82 76 -7.3 MO : 114 115 449 437 -2.7 MT : 19 18 93 85 -8.6 NE : 60 61 267 274 2.6 NV : 26 27 140 139 -0.7 NH : 16 14.5 74 70 -5.4 NJ : 12 11 46 41 -10.9 NM : 337 360 1,773 1,805 1.8 NY : 649 633 2,974 2,961 -0.4 NC : 53 49 231 220 -4.8 ND : 33 31 132 118 -10.6 OH : 271 274 1,158 1,202 3.8 OK : 75 70 293 290 -1.0 OR : 121 117 547 547 PA : 557 550 2,579 2,630 2.0 RI : 1.0 1.1 4.4 4.5 2.3 SC : 17 17 69 67 -2.9 SD : 81 81 358 379 5.9 TN : 69 66 257 248 -3.5 TX : 322 341 1,594 1,745 9.5 UT : 85 86 413 458 10.9 VT : 142 140 642 625 -2.6 VA : 105 102 438 427 -2.5 WA : 240 235 1,363 1,322 -3.0 WV : 13 13 49 50 2.0 WI : 1,238 1,247 5,652 5,747 1.7 WY : 6.2 6.9 22.9 29.7 29.7 : US 3/ : 9,060 9,116 43,674 44,639 2.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 October - December quarters is 0.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final October - December estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.12 million head by more than 0.3 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.6 percent. Reliability of October-December Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.4 0.7 312 130 0 265 5 4 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.3 0.6 55 17 0 73 6 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 October-December quarters. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch(202) 720-3570 William Weaver, Head, Livestock Section (202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess - Hogs and Pigs(202) 720-3106 Shawn Clark - Dairy Products(202) 690-3236 Jason Hardegree - Milk Production and Milk Cows(202) 720-3278 Scott Hollis - Sheep & Lambs, Goats(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Cattle, Cattle on Feed(202) 720-3040 Katy Paulsen - Livestock Slaughter(515) 284-4340 Charmaine Wilson - Dairy Products Prices(202) 690-2168 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. 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