Da 1-1 (3-07) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 16, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Jason Hardegree at 202-720-3278, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. February Milk Production Up 0.9 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during February totaled 13.1 billion pounds, up 0.9 percent from February 2006. January revised production, at 14.3 billion pounds, was up 1.8 percent from January 2006. The January revision represented an increase of 48 million pounds or 0.3 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,586 pounds for February, no change from February 2006. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.28 million head, 71,000 head more than February 2006, but 3,000 head less than January 2007. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : From : : : : : : : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head --- Pounds -- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,092 5,010 45,547 Apr-Jun : 9,128 5,141 46,930 Jul-Sep : 9,113 4,906 44,710 Oct-Dec : 9,115 4,894 44,611 : Annual : 9,112 19,951 181,798 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : from : : : : : : : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,198 8,280 1,711 1,724 14,027 14,276 1.8 Feb : 8,206 8,277 1,586 1,586 13,018 13,129 0.9 Mar : 8,224 1,775 14,599 Apr : 8,240 1,726 14,222 May : 8,257 1,782 14,712 Jun : 8,269 1,697 14,033 Jul : 8,258 1,688 13,937 Aug : 8,255 1,676 13,838 Sep : 8,251 1,613 13,307 Oct : 8,255 1,652 13,637 Nov : 8,260 1,614 13,332 Dec : 8,276 1,690 13,983 : Annual : 8,246 20,210 166,645 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2007 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : From : : : : : : : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,081 9,128 1,690 1,704 15,343 15,554 1.4 Feb : 9,088 9,123 1,567 1,567 14,238 14,300 0.4 Mar : 9,106 1,753 15,966 Apr : 9,116 1,705 15,538 May : 9,129 1,760 16,068 Jun : 9,139 1,676 15,324 Jul : 9,119 1,663 15,168 Aug : 9,114 1,653 15,061 Sep : 9,107 1,590 14,481 Oct : 9,107 1,631 14,857 Nov : 9,111 1,594 14,523 Dec : 9,126 1,669 15,231 : Annual : 9,112 19,951 181,798 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2007 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, February 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : From : : : : : : : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 171 175 1,940 1,845 332 323 -2.7 CA : 1,779 1,793 1,710 1,755 3,042 3,147 3.5 CO : 106 115 1,775 1,660 188 191 1.6 FL : 134 131 1,425 1,410 191 185 -3.1 ID : 473 503 1,670 1,680 790 845 7.0 IL : 104 103 1,540 1,460 160 150 -6.3 IN : 162 165 1,575 1,580 255 261 2.4 IA : 201 210 1,610 1,610 324 338 4.3 KS : 111 110 1,650 1,565 183 172 -6.0 KY : 101 93 1,080 1,140 109 106 -2.8 MI : 314 325 1,725 1,745 542 567 4.6 MN : 450 455 1,460 1,475 657 671 2.1 MO : 114 115 1,320 1,180 150 136 -9.3 NM : 344 353 1,700 1,535 585 542 -7.4 NY : 645 628 1,475 1,485 951 933 -1.9 OH : 273 275 1,390 1,410 379 388 2.4 OR : 119 112 1,450 1,520 173 170 -1.7 PA : 555 548 1,550 1,500 860 822 -4.4 TX : 328 347 1,735 1,640 569 569 VT : 143 140 1,450 1,385 207 194 -6.3 VA : 103 100 1,410 1,380 145 138 -4.8 WA : 236 235 1,790 1,805 422 424 0.5 WI : 1,240 1,246 1,455 1,490 1,804 1,857 2.9 : 23-State : Total : 8,206 8,277 1,586 1,586 13,018 13,129 0.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, January 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : From : : : : : : : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 171 175 2,045 1,995 350 349 -0.3 CA : 1,776 1,791 1,825 1,880 3,241 3,367 3.9 CO : 106 115 1,935 1,840 205 212 3.4 FL : 134 130 1,485 1,470 199 191 -4.0 ID : 473 502 1,830 1,850 866 929 7.3 IL : 104 103 1,630 1,645 170 169 -0.6 IN : 161 165 1,720 1,720 277 284 2.5 IA : 200 210 1,750 1,720 350 361 3.1 KS : 111 110 1,790 1,725 199 190 -4.5 KY : 101 93 1,150 1,230 116 114 -1.7 MI : 314 325 1,890 1,925 593 626 5.6 MN : 445 455 1,605 1,635 714 744 4.2 MO : 114 115 1,440 1,300 164 150 -8.5 NM : 342 358 1,845 1,690 631 605 -4.1 NY : 647 628 1,595 1,610 1,032 1,011 -2.0 OH : 273 275 1,490 1,520 407 418 2.7 OR : 120 114 1,560 1,605 187 183 -2.1 PA : 557 549 1,650 1,640 919 900 -2.1 TX : 326 347 1,840 1,780 600 618 3.0 VT : 143 140 1,580 1,560 226 218 -3.5 VA : 103 100 1,510 1,540 156 154 -1.3 WA : 237 235 1,940 1,930 460 454 -1.3 WI : 1,240 1,245 1,585 1,630 1,965 2,029 3.3 : 23-State : Total : 8,198 8,280 1,711 1,724 14,027 14,276 1.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2007 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 October - December quarters is 0.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final October - December estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.12 million head by more than 0.3 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.6 percent. Reliability of October-December Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.4 0.7 312 132 1 265 6 4 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.3 0.6 55 17 1 73 6 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 October-December quarters. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch(202) 720-3570 William Weaver, Head, Livestock Section (202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess - Hogs and Pigs(202) 720-3106 Shawn Clark - Dairy Products(202) 690-3236 Jason Hardegree - Milk Production and Milk Cows(202) 720-3278 Benita Hodge - Livestock Slaughter(515) 284-4340 Scott Hollis - Sheep & Lambs, Goats(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Cattle, Cattle on Feed(202) 720-3040 Charmaine Wilson - Dairy Products Prices(202) 690-2168 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. 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