Da 1-1 (4-07) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 18, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Jason Hardegree at 202-720-3278, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. March Milk Production Up 1.1 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during March totaled 14.8 billion pounds, up 1.1 percent from March 2006. February revised production, at 13.1 billion pounds, was up 0.6 percent from February 2006. The February revision represented a decrease of 31 million pounds or 0.2 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,782 pounds for March, 7 pounds above March 2006. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.28 million head, 58,000 head more than March 2006, and 5,000 head more than February 2007. January - March Milk Production Up 1 Percent Milk production in the U.S. during the January - March quarter totaled 46.0 billion pounds, up 1 percent from the January - March quarter last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the quarter was 9.13 million head, 36,000 head more than the same period last year. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : From : : : : : : : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,092 9,128 5,010 5,039 45,547 45,999 1.0 Apr-Jun : 9,128 5,141 46,930 Jul-Sep : 9,113 4,906 44,710 Oct-Dec : 9,115 4,894 44,611 : Annual : 9,112 19,951 181,798 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : from : : : : : : : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,198 8,280 1,711 1,724 14,027 14,276 1.8 Feb : 8,206 8,277 1,586 1,582 13,018 13,098 0.6 Mar : 8,224 8,282 1,775 1,782 14,599 14,760 1.1 Apr : 8,240 1,726 14,222 May : 8,257 1,782 14,712 Jun : 8,269 1,697 14,033 Jul : 8,258 1,688 13,937 Aug : 8,255 1,676 13,838 Sep : 8,251 1,613 13,307 Oct : 8,255 1,652 13,637 Nov : 8,260 1,614 13,332 Dec : 8,276 1,690 13,983 : Annual : 8,246 20,210 166,645 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2007 previous month revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : From : : : : : : : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,081 9,129 1,690 1,707 15,343 15,585 1.6 Feb : 9,088 9,126 1,567 1,567 14,238 14,300 0.4 Mar : 9,106 9,130 1,753 1,765 15,966 16,114 0.9 Apr : 9,116 1,705 15,538 May : 9,129 1,760 16,068 Jun : 9,139 1,676 15,324 Jul : 9,119 1,663 15,168 Aug : 9,114 1,653 15,061 Sep : 9,107 1,590 14,481 Oct : 9,107 1,631 14,857 Nov : 9,111 1,594 14,523 Dec : 9,126 1,669 15,231 : Annual : 9,112 19,951 181,798 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2007 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, March 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : From : : : : : : : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 172 175 2,190 2,200 377 385 2.1 CA : 1,781 1,796 1,925 1,975 3,428 3,547 3.5 CO : 107 115 1,980 1,890 212 217 2.4 FL : 133 130 1,640 1,640 218 213 -2.3 ID : 476 504 1,880 1,890 895 953 6.5 IL : 104 103 1,720 1,655 179 170 -5.0 IN : 163 167 1,775 1,770 289 296 2.4 IA : 201 211 1,780 1,770 358 373 4.2 KS : 111 110 1,840 1,775 204 195 -4.4 KY : 100 94 1,260 1,240 126 117 -7.1 MI : 316 326 1,905 1,940 602 632 5.0 MN : 450 455 1,625 1,650 731 751 2.7 MO : 115 115 1,500 1,370 173 158 -8.7 NM : 347 349 1,910 1,790 663 625 -5.7 NY : 645 628 1,630 1,630 1,051 1,024 -2.6 OH : 273 275 1,560 1,540 426 424 -0.5 OR : 118 111 1,650 1,730 195 192 -1.5 PA : 555 550 1,700 1,710 944 941 -0.3 TX : 332 347 1,975 1,920 656 666 1.5 VT : 143 140 1,610 1,535 230 215 -6.5 VA : 103 100 1,560 1,540 161 154 -4.3 WA : 238 235 1,980 1,995 471 469 -0.4 WI : 1,241 1,246 1,620 1,640 2,010 2,043 1.6 : 23-State : Total : 8,224 8,282 1,775 1,782 14,599 14,760 1.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, February 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : From : : : : : : : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 171 175 1,940 1,885 332 330 -0.6 CA : 1,779 1,793 1,710 1,755 3,042 3,147 3.5 CO : 106 115 1,775 1,660 188 191 1.6 FL : 134 130 1,425 1,415 191 184 -3.7 ID : 473 504 1,670 1,680 790 847 7.2 IL : 104 103 1,540 1,460 160 150 -6.3 IN : 162 165 1,575 1,580 255 261 2.4 IA : 201 210 1,610 1,600 324 336 3.7 KS : 111 110 1,650 1,565 183 172 -6.0 KY : 101 93 1,080 1,100 109 102 -6.4 MI : 314 325 1,725 1,745 542 567 4.6 MN : 450 455 1,460 1,485 657 676 2.9 MO : 114 115 1,320 1,180 150 136 -9.3 NM : 344 353 1,700 1,535 585 542 -7.4 NY : 645 628 1,475 1,480 951 929 -2.3 OH : 273 275 1,390 1,390 379 382 0.8 OR : 119 112 1,450 1,545 173 173 PA : 555 548 1,550 1,500 860 822 -4.4 TX : 328 347 1,735 1,640 569 569 VT : 143 140 1,450 1,385 207 194 -6.3 VA : 103 100 1,410 1,380 145 138 -4.8 WA : 236 235 1,790 1,780 422 418 -0.9 WI : 1,240 1,246 1,455 1,470 1,804 1,832 1.6 : 23-State : Total : 8,206 8,277 1,586 1,582 13,018 13,098 0.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2007 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised October-December, 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Oct-Dec Milk Cows 1/ : Oct-Dec Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds --- Percent : AL : 15 13 50 46 -8.0 AK : 0.9 0.7 2.7 2.2 -18.5 AZ : 167 175 914 942 3.1 AR : 21 19 67 62 -7.5 CA : 1,769 1,782 9,383 9,660 3.0 CO : 105 113 587 644 9.7 CT : 20 19 92 89 -3.3 DE : 7 7 29.4 30.0 2.0 FL : 135 130 503 492 -2.2 GA : 79 75 327 330 0.9 HI : 5.1 4.0 15.5 12.7 -18.1 ID : 471 498 2,586 2,729 5.5 IL : 104 103 474 483 1.9 IN : 157 166 783 819 4.6 IA : 200 209 1,006 1,035 2.9 KS : 112 112 565 568 0.5 KY : 102 95 324 306 -5.6 LA : 33 30 94 86 -8.5 ME : 32 32 142 141 -0.7 MD : 68 60 274 255 -6.9 MA : 16 15.5 69 65 -5.8 MI : 313 323 1,682 1,785 6.1 MN : 447 452 1,999 2,072 3.7 MS : 24 22 83 76 -8.4 MO : 114 115 449 437 -2.7 MT : 19 18 93 85 -8.6 NE : 60 61 267 277 3.7 NV : 26 27 140 139 -0.7 NH : 16.0 14.5 74 69 -6.8 NJ : 11.5 10.5 46 41 -10.9 NM : 337 360 1,773 1,805 1.8 NY : 649 628 2,974 2,917 -1.9 NC : 53 49 238 220 -7.6 ND : 33 31 117 115 -1.7 OH : 271 274 1,158 1,197 3.4 OK : 75 70 293 290 -1.0 OR : 121 117 547 533 -2.6 PA : 557 550 2,579 2,630 2.0 RI : 1.0 1.1 4.4 4.6 4.5 SC : 17 17 67 67 SD : 81 81 358 379 5.9 TN : 69 66 257 248 -3.5 TX : 322 343 1,594 1,745 9.5 UT : 85 86 413 450 9.0 VT : 142 140 642 623 -3.0 VA : 105 101 438 426 -2.7 WA : 240 235 1,363 1,322 -3.0 WV : 13 13 49 50 2.0 WI : 1,238 1,245 5,652 5,782 2.3 WY : 5.8 6.9 21.5 29.7 38.1 : US 3/ : 9,064 9,115 43,659 44,611 2.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary January-March, 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jan-Mar Milk Cows 1/ : Jan-Mar Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds --- Percent : AL : 14 13 60 58 -3.3 AK : 0.8 0.6 2.4 2.2 -8.3 AZ : 171 175 1,059 1,064 0.5 AR : 21.0 18.5 71 63 -11.3 CA : 1,779 1,793 9,711 10,061 3.6 CO : 106 115 605 620 2.5 CT : 20 19 97 95 -2.1 DE : 7 7 32.2 30.0 -6.8 FL : 134 130 608 588 -3.3 GA : 78 77 379 381 0.5 HI : 4.5 3.6 15.3 12.1 -20.9 ID : 474 503 2,551 2,729 7.0 IL : 104 103 509 489 -3.9 IN : 162 166 821 841 2.4 IA : 201 210 1,032 1,070 3.7 KS : 111 110 586 557 -4.9 KY : 101 93 351 333 -5.1 LA : 33 30 119 106 -10.9 ME : 32 32 140 141 0.7 MD : 67 60 290 268 -7.6 MA : 16 15 72 65 -9.7 MI : 315 325 1,737 1,825 5.1 MN : 448 455 2,102 2,171 3.3 MS : 23 22 100 91 -9.0 MO : 114 115 487 444 -8.8 MT : 19 18 90 83 -7.8 NE : 60 60 277 284 2.5 NV : 27 27 140 142 1.4 NH : 15.5 14.0 77 72 -6.5 NJ : 11.5 10.5 48 43 -10.4 NM : 344 353 1,879 1,772 -5.7 NY : 646 628 3,034 2,964 -2.3 NC : 52 48 254 240 -5.5 ND : 33 31 119 116 -2.5 OH : 273 275 1,212 1,224 1.0 OK : 75 70 311 296 -4.8 OR : 119 112 555 548 -1.3 PA : 556 549 2,723 2,663 -2.2 RI : 1.1 1.1 4.6 4.3 -6.5 SC : 17 17 76 84 10.5 SD : 81 84 364 401 10.2 TN : 69 66 284 270 -4.9 TX : 329 347 1,825 1,853 1.5 UT : 85 86 404 438 8.4 VT : 143 140 663 627 -5.4 VA : 103 100 462 446 -3.5 WA : 237 235 1,353 1,341 -0.9 WV : 13 13 50 50 WI : 1,240 1,246 5,779 5,904 2.2 WY : 6.4 7.1 26.2 29.1 11.1 : US 3/ : 9,092 9,128 45,547 45,999 1.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 January - March quarters is 0.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final January - March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.13 million head by more than 0.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.3 percent. Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.4 0.7 322 120 10 375 4 6 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.2 0.3 27 12 1 35 6 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch(202) 720-3570 Livestock Section William Weaver, Head, Livestock Section (202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess - Hogs and Pigs(202) 720-3106 Shawn Clark - Dairy Products(202) 690-3236 Jason Hardegree - Milk Production and Milk Cows(202) 720-3278 Scott Hollis - Sheep & Lambs, Goats(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Cattle, Cattle on Feed(202) 720-3040 Katy Paulsen - Livestock Slaughter(515) 284-4340 Charmaine Wilson - Dairy Products Prices(202) 690-2168 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. 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