Da 1-1 (6-07) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released June 18, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Jason Hardegree at 202-720-3278, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. May Milk Production Up 1.1 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during May totaled 14.9 billion pounds, up 1.1 percent from May 2006. April revised production, at 14.5 billion pounds, was up 1.7 percent from April 2006. The April revision represented an increase of 14 million pounds or 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,795 pounds for May, 13 pounds above May 2006. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.28 million head, 26,000 head more than May 2006, and 3,000 head more than April 2007. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : From : : : : : : : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,092 9,129 5,010 5,040 45,547 46,010 1.0 Apr-Jun : 9,128 5,141 46,930 Jul-Sep : 9,113 4,906 44,710 Oct-Dec : 9,115 4,894 44,611 : Annual : 9,112 19,951 181,798 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : from : : : : : : : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,198 8,280 1,711 1,724 14,027 14,276 1.8 Feb : 8,206 8,277 1,586 1,582 13,018 13,098 0.6 Mar : 8,224 8,285 1,775 1,783 14,599 14,771 1.2 Apr : 8,240 8,280 1,726 1,746 14,222 14,457 1.7 May : 8,257 8,283 1,782 1,795 14,712 14,867 1.1 Jun : 8,269 1,697 14,033 Jul : 8,258 1,688 13,937 Aug : 8,255 1,676 13,838 Sep : 8,251 1,613 13,307 Oct : 8,255 1,652 13,637 Nov : 8,260 1,614 13,332 Dec : 8,276 1,690 13,983 : Annual : 8,246 20,210 166,645 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2007 previous month revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : From : : : : : : : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,081 9,129 1,690 1,707 15,343 15,585 1.6 Feb : 9,088 9,126 1,567 1,567 14,238 14,300 0.4 Mar : 9,106 9,133 1,753 1,766 15,966 16,125 1.0 Apr : 9,116 9,121 1,705 1,727 15,538 15,750 1.4 May : 9,129 9,119 1,760 1,776 16,068 16,195 0.8 Jun : 9,139 1,676 15,324 Jul : 9,119 1,663 15,168 Aug : 9,114 1,653 15,061 Sep : 9,107 1,590 14,481 Oct : 9,107 1,631 14,857 Nov : 9,111 1,594 14,523 Dec : 9,126 1,669 15,231 : Annual : 9,112 19,951 181,798 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2007 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, May 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : From : : : : : : : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 172 182 2,155 2,105 371 383 3.2 CA : 1,785 1,800 1,895 1,930 3,383 3,474 2.7 CO : 110 115 2,000 1,955 220 225 2.3 FL : 133 128 1,520 1,600 202 205 1.5 ID : 484 506 1,940 1,950 939 987 5.1 IL : 103 103 1,690 1,670 174 172 -1.1 IN : 166 168 1,750 1,770 291 297 2.1 IA : 204 212 1,765 1,790 360 379 5.3 KS : 113 110 1,870 1,820 211 200 -5.2 KY : 98 92 1,220 1,280 120 118 -1.7 MI : 320 330 1,920 1,960 614 647 5.4 MN : 450 455 1,620 1,660 729 755 3.6 MO : 116 114 1,470 1,380 171 157 -8.2 NM : 356 341 1,980 1,870 705 638 -9.5 NY : 643 626 1,660 1,690 1,067 1,058 -0.8 OH : 273 275 1,610 1,620 440 446 1.4 OR : 118 110 1,680 1,710 198 188 -5.1 PA : 556 549 1,700 1,720 945 944 -0.1 TX : 333 347 1,955 1,870 651 649 -0.3 VT : 142 140 1,630 1,555 231 218 -5.6 VA : 103 100 1,560 1,550 161 155 -3.7 WA : 237 233 2,025 2,020 480 471 -1.9 WI : 1,242 1,247 1,650 1,685 2,049 2,101 2.5 : 23-State : Total : 8,257 8,283 1,782 1,795 14,712 14,867 1.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, April 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : From : : : : : : : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 172 182 2,145 2,100 369 382 3.5 CA : 1,784 1,797 1,855 1,920 3,309 3,450 4.3 CO : 108 115 1,910 1,885 206 217 5.3 FL : 133 129 1,540 1,580 205 204 -0.5 ID : 478 503 1,850 1,860 884 936 5.9 IL : 103 103 1,650 1,645 170 169 -0.6 IN : 165 168 1,715 1,725 283 290 2.5 IA : 203 211 1,735 1,730 352 365 3.7 KS : 112 110 1,810 1,745 203 192 -5.4 KY : 99 92 1,230 1,270 122 117 -4.1 MI : 318 328 1,850 1,895 588 622 5.8 MN : 450 455 1,575 1,610 709 733 3.4 MO : 116 114 1,500 1,395 174 159 -8.6 NM : 350 345 1,870 1,740 655 600 -8.4 NY : 644 627 1,590 1,605 1,024 1,006 -1.8 OH : 273 275 1,530 1,540 418 424 1.4 OR : 118 110 1,630 1,645 192 181 -5.7 PA : 557 550 1,650 1,690 919 930 1.2 TX : 333 347 1,905 1,860 634 645 1.7 VT : 143 140 1,560 1,495 223 209 -6.3 VA : 103 100 1,555 1,550 160 155 -3.1 WA : 237 233 1,950 1,970 462 459 -0.6 WI : 1,241 1,246 1,580 1,615 1,961 2,012 2.6 : 23-State : Total : 8,240 8,280 1,726 1,746 14,222 14,457 1.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2007 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 January - March quarters is 0.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final January - March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.13 million head by more than 0.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.3 percent. Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.4 0.7 322 120 10 375 4 6 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.2 0.3 27 12 1 35 6 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch(202) 720-3570 William Weaver, Head, Livestock Section (202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess - Hogs and Pigs(202) 720-3106 Shawn Clark - Dairy Products(202) 690-3236 Jason Hardegree - Milk Production and Milk Cows(202) 720-3278 Benita Hodge - Livestock Slaughter(515) 284-4340 Scott Hollis - Sheep & Lambs, Goats(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Cattle, Cattle on Feed(202) 720-3040 Charmaine Wilson - Dairy Products Prices(202) 690-2168 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. 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