Da 1-1 (9-07) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released September 18, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Jason Hardegree at 202-720-3278, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. August Milk Production up 3.6 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during August totaled 14.3 billion pounds, up 3.6 percent from August 2006. July revised production at 14.5 billion pounds, was up 4.0 percent from July 2006. The July revision represented an increase of 10.0 million pounds or 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,721 pounds for August, 45 pounds above August 2006. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.33 million head, 72,000 head more than August 2006, and 11,000 head more than July 2007. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : From : : : : : : : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,092 9,130 5,010 5,039 45,547 46,006 1.0 Apr-Jun : 9,128 9,128 5,141 5,197 46,930 47,441 1.1 Jul-Sep : 9,113 4,906 44,710 Oct-Dec : 9,115 4,894 44,611 : Annual : 9,112 19,951 181,798 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : from : : : : : : : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,198 8,280 1,711 1,724 14,027 14,276 1.8 Feb : 8,206 8,277 1,586 1,582 13,018 13,098 0.6 Mar : 8,224 8,285 1,775 1,783 14,599 14,771 1.2 Apr : 8,240 8,280 1,726 1,746 14,222 14,457 1.7 May : 8,257 8,286 1,782 1,795 14,712 14,874 1.1 Jun : 8,269 8,294 1,697 1,713 14,033 14,204 1.2 Jul : 8,258 8,316 1,688 1,743 13,937 14,493 4.0 Aug : 8,255 8,327 1,676 1,721 13,838 14,332 3.6 Sep : 8,251 1,613 13,307 Oct : 8,255 1,652 13,637 Nov : 8,260 1,614 13,332 Dec : 8,276 1,690 13,983 : Annual : 8,246 20,210 166,645 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2007 previous month revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : From : : : : : : : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,081 9,130 1,690 1,707 15,343 15,585 1.6 Feb : 9,088 9,126 1,567 1,567 14,238 14,298 0.4 Mar : 9,106 9,134 1,753 1,765 15,966 16,123 1.0 Apr : 9,116 9,122 1,705 1,727 15,538 15,757 1.4 May : 9,129 9,127 1,760 1,776 16,068 16,208 0.9 Jun : 9,139 9,135 1,676 1,695 15,324 15,476 1.0 Jul : 9,119 9,157 1,663 1,720 15,168 15,746 3.8 Aug : 9,114 9,168 1,653 1,699 15,061 15,572 3.4 Sep : 9,107 1,590 14,481 Oct : 9,107 1,631 14,857 Nov : 9,111 1,594 14,523 Dec : 9,126 1,669 15,231 : Annual : 9,112 19,951 181,798 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2007 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, August 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : From : : : : : : : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 173 181 1,655 1,760 286 319 11.5 CA : 1,770 1,817 1,860 1,900 3,292 3,452 4.9 CO : 112 119 1,950 1,940 218 231 6.0 FL : 130 126 1,180 1,200 153 151 -1.3 ID : 497 517 1,960 1,970 974 1,018 4.5 IL : 103 103 1,550 1,480 160 152 -5.0 IN : 165 166 1,625 1,670 268 277 3.4 IA : 207 215 1,620 1,650 335 355 6.0 KS : 113 108 1,740 1,715 197 185 -6.1 KY : 96 89 990 1,090 95 97 2.1 MI : 320 338 1,840 1,910 589 646 9.7 MN : 450 463 1,525 1,555 686 720 5.0 MO : 115 109 1,185 1,170 136 128 -5.9 NM : 362 335 1,780 1,855 644 621 -3.6 NY : 634 625 1,580 1,640 1,002 1,025 2.3 OH : 274 276 1,440 1,490 395 411 4.1 OR : 118 114 1,640 1,640 194 187 -3.6 PA : 554 551 1,580 1,620 875 893 2.1 TX : 337 348 1,655 1,670 558 581 4.1 VT : 141 139 1,510 1,540 213 214 0.5 VA : 102 100 1,350 1,420 138 142 2.9 WA : 238 240 1,980 2,000 471 480 1.9 WI : 1,244 1,248 1,575 1,640 1,959 2,047 4.5 : 23-State : Total : 8,255 8,327 1,676 1,721 13,838 14,332 3.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, July 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : From : : : : : : : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 173 181 1,775 1,875 307 339 10.4 CA : 1,774 1,811 1,760 1,905 3,122 3,450 10.5 CO : 112 119 1,980 1,980 222 236 6.3 FL : 131 127 1,350 1,380 177 175 -1.1 ID : 490 516 1,960 1,970 960 1,017 5.9 IL : 103 103 1,600 1,550 165 160 -3.0 IN : 166 166 1,670 1,685 277 280 1.1 IA : 206 215 1,680 1,680 346 361 4.3 KS : 113 108 1,720 1,760 194 190 -2.1 KY : 97 89 1,060 1,150 103 102 -1.0 MI : 322 336 1,895 1,945 610 654 7.2 MN : 450 463 1,560 1,575 702 729 3.8 MO : 115 110 1,270 1,220 146 134 -8.2 NM : 362 335 1,880 1,850 681 620 -9.0 NY : 638 626 1,605 1,650 1,024 1,033 0.9 OH : 274 276 1,470 1,530 403 422 4.7 OR : 118 114 1,640 1,660 194 189 -2.6 PA : 555 550 1,600 1,610 888 886 -0.2 TX : 335 348 1,760 1,720 590 599 1.5 VT : 141 139 1,540 1,555 217 216 -0.5 VA : 103 100 1,390 1,450 143 145 1.4 WA : 237 236 1,960 2,000 465 472 1.5 WI : 1,243 1,248 1,610 1,670 2,001 2,084 4.1 : 23-State : Total : 8,258 8,316 1,688 1,743 13,937 14,493 4.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2007 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 April - June quarters is 0.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final April - June estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.13 million head by more than 0.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.3 percent. Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.3 0.6 285 102 3 244 3 7 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.2 0.3 27 11 0 34 5 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch............................(202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Shawn Clark, Head, Livestock Section.............................(202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess - Hogs and Pigs..............................(202) 720-3106 Vacant - Dairy Products..................................(202) 690-3236 Jason Hardegree - Milk Production and Milk Cows..........(202) 720-3278 Scott Hollis - Sheep & Lambs, Goats & Kids...............(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Cattle, Cattle on Feed.....................(202) 720-3040 Benita Hodge - Livestock Slaughter.......................(515) 284-4340 Charmaine Wilson - Dairy Products Prices.................(202) 690-2168 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. 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