Da 1-1 (10-07) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released October 18, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Jason Hardegree at 202-720-3278, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. September Milk Production up 3.1 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during September totaled 13.7 billion pounds, up 3.1 percent from September 2006. August production, unrevised at 14.3 billion pounds, was up 3.6 percent from August 2006. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,644 pounds for September, 31 pounds above September 2006. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.34 million head, 91,000 head more than September 2006, and 12,000 head more than August 2007. July - September Milk Production up 3.1 Percent Milk production in the U.S. during the July - September quarter totaled 46.1 billion pounds, up 3.1 percent from the July - September quarter last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the quarter was 9.16 million head, 44,000 head more than the same period last year. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : From : : : : : : : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,092 9,130 5,010 5,039 45,547 46,006 1.0 Apr-Jun : 9,128 9,129 5,141 5,195 46,930 47,429 1.1 Jul-Sep : 9,113 9,157 4,906 5,036 44,710 46,114 3.1 Oct-Dec : 9,115 4,894 44,611 : Annual : 9,112 19,951 181,798 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : from : : : : : : : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,198 8,280 1,711 1,724 14,027 14,276 1.8 Feb : 8,206 8,277 1,586 1,582 13,018 13,098 0.6 Mar : 8,224 8,285 1,775 1,783 14,599 14,771 1.2 Apr : 8,240 8,280 1,726 1,746 14,222 14,457 1.7 May : 8,257 8,286 1,782 1,795 14,712 14,874 1.1 Jun : 8,269 8,294 1,697 1,713 14,033 14,204 1.2 Jul : 8,258 8,316 1,688 1,743 13,937 14,493 4.0 Aug : 8,255 8,330 1,676 1,721 13,838 14,332 3.6 Sep : 8,251 8,342 1,613 1,644 13,307 13,715 3.1 Oct : 8,255 1,652 13,637 Nov : 8,260 1,614 13,332 Dec : 8,276 1,690 13,983 : Annual : 8,246 20,210 166,645 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2007 previous month revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : From : : : : : : : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,081 9,130 1,690 1,707 15,343 15,585 1.6 Feb : 9,088 9,126 1,567 1,567 14,238 14,298 0.4 Mar : 9,106 9,134 1,753 1,765 15,966 16,123 1.0 Apr : 9,116 9,122 1,705 1,728 15,538 15,764 1.5 May : 9,129 9,128 1,760 1,775 16,068 16,205 0.9 Jun : 9,139 9,136 1,676 1,692 15,324 15,460 0.9 Jul : 9,119 9,150 1,663 1,718 15,168 15,724 3.7 Aug : 9,114 9,157 1,653 1,697 15,061 15,536 3.2 Sep : 9,107 9,163 1,590 1,621 14,481 14,854 2.6 Oct : 9,107 1,631 14,857 Nov : 9,111 1,594 14,523 Dec : 9,126 1,669 15,231 : Annual : 9,112 19,951 181,798 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2007 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, September 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : From : : : : : : : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 174 182 1,620 1,705 282 310 9.9 CA : 1,773 1,822 1,775 1,785 3,147 3,252 3.3 CO : 112 120 1,910 1,900 214 228 6.5 FL : 129 125 1,110 1,160 143 145 1.4 ID : 497 521 1,860 1,880 924 979 6.0 IL : 103 103 1,485 1,440 153 148 -3.3 IN : 165 166 1,595 1,635 263 271 3.0 IA : 208 215 1,560 1,590 324 342 5.6 KS : 113 108 1,630 1,665 184 180 -2.2 KY : 96 88 1,010 1,020 97 90 -7.2 MI : 320 340 1,800 1,830 576 622 8.0 MN : 450 463 1,470 1,470 662 681 2.9 MO : 115 109 1,180 1,140 136 124 -8.8 NM : 360 336 1,650 1,800 594 605 1.9 NY : 631 626 1,515 1,570 956 983 2.8 OH : 274 277 1,430 1,440 392 399 1.8 OR : 117 115 1,580 1,565 185 180 -2.7 PA : 553 550 1,560 1,550 863 853 -1.2 TX : 338 348 1,585 1,640 536 571 6.5 VT : 140 140 1,460 1,465 204 205 0.5 VA : 102 100 1,320 1,365 135 137 1.5 WA : 237 240 1,880 1,905 446 457 2.5 WI : 1,244 1,248 1,520 1,565 1,891 1,953 3.3 : 23-State : Total : 8,251 8,342 1,613 1,644 13,307 13,715 3.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, August 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : From : : : : : : : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 173 181 1,655 1,760 286 319 11.5 CA : 1,770 1,818 1,860 1,900 3,292 3,454 4.9 CO : 112 119 1,950 1,975 218 235 7.8 FL : 130 126 1,180 1,215 153 153 ID : 497 520 1,960 1,970 974 1,024 5.1 IL : 103 103 1,550 1,480 160 152 -5.0 IN : 165 166 1,625 1,670 268 277 3.4 IA : 207 215 1,620 1,640 335 353 5.4 KS : 113 108 1,740 1,715 197 185 -6.1 KY : 96 88 990 1,035 95 91 -4.2 MI : 320 338 1,840 1,910 589 646 9.7 MN : 450 463 1,525 1,555 686 720 5.0 MO : 115 109 1,185 1,170 136 128 -5.9 NM : 362 335 1,780 1,855 644 621 -3.6 NY : 634 625 1,580 1,640 1,002 1,025 2.3 OH : 274 276 1,440 1,470 395 406 2.8 OR : 118 114 1,640 1,650 194 188 -3.1 PA : 554 551 1,580 1,620 875 893 2.1 TX : 337 348 1,655 1,670 558 581 4.1 VT : 141 139 1,510 1,540 213 214 0.5 VA : 102 100 1,350 1,400 138 140 1.4 WA : 238 240 1,980 2,000 471 480 1.9 WI : 1,244 1,248 1,575 1,640 1,959 2,047 4.5 : 23-State : Total : 8,255 8,330 1,676 1,721 13,838 14,332 3.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2007 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised April-June, 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Apr-Jun Milk Cows 1/ : Apr-Jun Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds --- Percent : AL : 14 13 56 54 -3.6 AK : 0.8 0.6 2.5 2.2 -12.0 AZ : 172 182 1,078 1,123 4.2 AR : 20.0 17.5 71 60 -15.5 CA : 1,785 1,801 9,898 10,263 3.7 CO : 110 116 644 679 5.4 CT : 20 19 95 94 -1.1 DE : 7 7 30.8 30.0 -2.6 FL : 133 128 594 599 0.8 GA : 77 77 383 388 1.3 HI : 4.4 3.2 14.8 10.0 -32.4 ID : 484 506 2,757 2,883 4.6 IL : 103 103 508 501 -1.4 IN : 166 168 851 867 1.9 IA : 204 212 1,058 1,102 4.2 KS : 113 110 614 582 -5.2 KY : 98 91 349 337 -3.4 LA : 32 29 111 98 -11.7 ME : 32 32 147 147 MD : 66 59 290 264 -9.0 MA : 16 15 73 65 -11.0 MI : 320 330 1,803 1,895 5.1 MN : 450 458 2,140 2,216 3.6 MS : 23 21 94 90 -4.3 MO : 116 113 498 455 -8.6 MT : 19 18 92 87 -5.4 NE : 61 59 289 275 -4.8 NV : 27 27 140 150 7.1 NH : 15 14 76 74 -2.6 NJ : 11.0 10.5 47 44 -6.4 NM : 355 340 2,035 1,846 -9.3 NY : 642 626 3,112 3,078 -1.1 NC : 51 48 253 242 -4.3 ND : 32 30 120 117 -2.5 OH : 273 275 1,261 1,290 2.3 OK : 74 69 313 295 -5.8 OR : 118 111 581 553 -4.8 PA : 556 549 2,763 2,747 -0.6 RI : 1.1 1.1 5.0 4.6 -8.0 SC : 17.0 18.5 77 88 14.3 SD : 81 85 382 417 9.2 TN : 67 64 284 272 -4.2 TX : 333 347 1,891 1,900 0.5 UT : 85 85 435 440 1.1 VT : 142 140 672 637 -5.2 VA : 103 100 467 456 -2.4 WA : 237 233 1,407 1,393 -1.0 WV : 13 13 51 51 WI : 1,242 1,247 5,986 6,133 2.5 WY : 6.7 7.2 30.8 34.9 13.3 : US 3/ : 9,128 9,129 46,930 47,429 1.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary July-September, 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jul-Sep Milk Cows 1/ : Jul-Sep Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds --- Percent : AL : 14 13 41 41 AK : 0.8 0.6 2.7 2.5 -7.4 AZ : 173 181 875 968 10.6 AR : 20 17 61 52 -14.8 CA : 1,772 1,817 9,561 10,156 6.2 CO : 112 119 654 699 6.9 CT : 19 19 86 89 3.5 DE : 7 7 29 28 -3.4 FL : 130 126 473 473 GA : 76 77 312 312 HI : 4.2 2.7 14.2 7.8 -45.1 ID : 495 519 2,858 3,020 5.7 IL : 103 103 478 460 -3.8 IN : 165 166 808 828 2.5 IA : 207 215 1,005 1,056 5.1 KS : 113 108 575 555 -3.5 KY : 96 88 295 283 -4.1 LA : 31 28 80 71 -11.3 ME : 32 33 146 151 3.4 MD : 63 57 258 248 -3.9 MA : 15.5 14.5 68 62 -8.8 MI : 321 338 1,775 1,922 8.3 MN : 450 463 2,050 2,130 3.9 MS : 22 21 71 68 -4.2 MO : 115 109 418 386 -7.7 MT : 18 17 87 84 -3.4 NE : 61 58 275 260 -5.5 NV : 27 27 139 146 5.0 NH : 15 14 71 73 2.8 NJ : 10.5 10.5 42 41 -2.4 NM : 361 335 1,919 1,846 -3.8 NY : 634 626 2,982 3,041 2.0 NC : 50 47 217 216 -0.5 ND : 31 28 116 108 -6.9 OH : 274 276 1,190 1,227 3.1 OK : 72 68 300 282 -6.0 OR : 118 114 573 557 -2.8 PA : 554 550 2,626 2,632 0.2 RI : 1.1 1.1 4.8 4.5 -6.3 SC : 17 18 58 70 20.7 SD : 81 85 380 410 7.9 TN : 65 62 233 221 -5.2 TX : 337 348 1,684 1,751 4.0 UT : 86 85 456 442 -3.1 VT : 141 139 634 635 0.2 VA : 102 100 416 422 1.4 WA : 237 239 1,382 1,409 2.0 WV : 13 13 49 49 WI : 1,244 1,248 5,851 6,084 4.0 WY : 6.8 7.0 31.3 35.0 11.8 : US 3/ : 9,113 9,157 44,710 46,114 3.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 July - September quarters is 0.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final July - September estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.16 million head by more than 0.3 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.5 percent. Reliability of July-September Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.5 0.9 415 157 27 362 7 3 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.3 0.5 46 16 2 61 7 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 July-September quarters. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch............................(202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Shawn Clark, Head, Livestock Section.............................(202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess - Hogs and Pigs..............................(202) 720-3106 Vacant - Dairy Products..................................(202) 690-3236 Jason Hardegree - Milk Production and Milk Cows..........(202) 720-3278 Scott Hollis - Sheep & Lambs, Goats & Kids...............(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Cattle, Cattle on Feed.....................(202) 720-3040 Benita Hodge - Livestock Slaughter.......................(515) 284-4340 Vacant - Dairy Products Prices...........................(202) 690-2168 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. 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USDA Data Users' Meeting October 29, 2007 Crowne Plaza Chicago O'Hare Rosemont, Illinois (847) 671-6350 The USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service will be organizing an open forum for data users. The purpose will be to provide updates on pending changes in the various statistical and information programs and seek comments and input from data users. Other USDA agencies to be represented will include the Agricultural Marketing Service, the Economic Research Service, the Foreign Agricultural Service, and World Agricultural Outlook Board. The Foreign Trade Division from the Census Bureau will also be included in the meeting. For registration details or additional information for the Data Users' Meeting, see the NASS homepage at www.nass.usda.gov/forum/ or contact Marjorie Taylor (NASS) at (202) 690-8141 or at marjorie_taylor@nass.usda.gov.