Da 1-1 (12-07) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released December 18, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Jason Hardegree at 202-720-3278, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. November Milk Production up 3.8 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during November totaled 13.8 billion pounds, up 3.8 percent from November 2006. October production, unrevised at 14.2 billion pounds, was up 4.1 percent from October 2006. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,654 pounds for November, 40 pounds above November 2006. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.36 million head, 101,000 head more than November 2006, and 8,000 head more than October 2007. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : From : : : : : : : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,092 9,130 5,010 5,039 45,547 46,006 1.0 Apr-Jun : 9,128 9,129 5,141 5,195 46,930 47,429 1.1 Jul-Sep : 9,113 9,157 4,906 5,037 44,710 46,124 3.2 Oct-Dec : 9,115 4,894 44,611 : Annual : 9,112 19,951 181,798 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : from : : : : : : : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,198 8,280 1,711 1,724 14,027 14,276 1.8 Feb : 8,206 8,277 1,586 1,582 13,018 13,098 0.6 Mar : 8,224 8,285 1,775 1,783 14,599 14,771 1.2 Apr : 8,240 8,280 1,726 1,746 14,222 14,457 1.7 May : 8,257 8,286 1,782 1,795 14,712 14,874 1.1 Jun : 8,269 8,294 1,697 1,713 14,033 14,204 1.2 Jul : 8,258 8,316 1,688 1,743 13,937 14,493 4.0 Aug : 8,255 8,330 1,676 1,721 13,838 14,332 3.6 Sep : 8,251 8,340 1,613 1,646 13,307 13,725 3.1 Oct : 8,255 8,353 1,652 1,699 13,637 14,190 4.1 Nov : 8,260 8,361 1,614 1,654 13,332 13,833 3.8 Dec : 8,276 1,690 13,983 : Annual : 8,246 20,210 166,645 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2007 previous month revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : From : : : : : : : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,081 9,130 1,690 1,707 15,343 15,585 1.6 Feb : 9,088 9,126 1,567 1,567 14,238 14,298 0.4 Mar : 9,106 9,134 1,753 1,765 15,966 16,123 1.0 Apr : 9,116 9,122 1,705 1,728 15,538 15,764 1.5 May : 9,129 9,128 1,760 1,775 16,068 16,205 0.9 Jun : 9,139 9,136 1,676 1,692 15,324 15,460 0.9 Jul : 9,119 9,150 1,663 1,718 15,168 15,724 3.7 Aug : 9,114 9,157 1,653 1,697 15,061 15,536 3.2 Sep : 9,107 9,161 1,590 1,623 14,481 14,864 2.6 Oct : 9,107 9,169 1,631 1,677 14,857 15,376 3.5 Nov : 9,111 9,175 1,594 1,634 14,523 14,989 3.2 Dec : 9,126 1,669 15,231 : Annual : 9,112 19,951 181,798 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2007 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, November 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : From : : : : : : : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 175 185 1,750 1,830 306 339 10.8 CA : 1,782 1,829 1,760 1,810 3,136 3,310 5.5 CO : 113 120 1,870 1,885 211 226 7.1 FL : 130 125 1,245 1,190 162 149 -8.0 ID : 497 522 1,790 1,800 890 940 5.6 IL : 103 103 1,510 1,470 156 151 -3.2 IN : 166 166 1,610 1,650 267 274 2.6 IA : 209 215 1,620 1,590 339 342 0.9 KS : 112 109 1,660 1,695 186 185 -0.5 KY : 95 87 1,060 1,120 101 97 -4.0 MI : 323 342 1,810 1,820 585 622 6.3 MN : 450 463 1,495 1,490 673 690 2.5 MO : 115 109 1,250 1,190 144 130 -9.7 NM : 360 337 1,650 1,780 594 600 1.0 NY : 626 626 1,515 1,575 948 986 4.0 OH : 274 277 1,440 1,470 395 407 3.0 OR : 117 115 1,480 1,500 173 173 PA : 550 550 1,560 1,580 858 869 1.3 TX : 342 349 1,675 1,770 573 618 7.9 VT : 140 140 1,445 1,465 202 205 1.5 VA : 101 100 1,365 1,400 138 140 1.4 WA : 235 243 1,815 1,850 427 450 5.4 WI : 1,245 1,249 1,500 1,545 1,868 1,930 3.3 : 23-State : Total : 8,260 8,361 1,614 1,654 13,332 13,833 3.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, October 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : From : : : : : : : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 175 184 1,720 1,850 301 340 13.0 CA : 1,778 1,826 1,815 1,870 3,227 3,415 5.8 CO : 112 120 1,920 1,925 215 231 7.4 FL : 129 125 1,185 1,120 153 140 -8.5 ID : 497 522 1,870 1,880 929 981 5.6 IL : 103 103 1,550 1,490 160 153 -4.4 IN : 165 166 1,640 1,685 271 280 3.3 IA : 208 215 1,640 1,630 341 350 2.6 KS : 112 109 1,680 1,740 188 190 1.1 KY : 95 87 1,050 1,115 100 97 -3.0 MI : 321 341 1,840 1,865 591 636 7.6 MN : 450 463 1,515 1,530 682 708 3.8 MO : 115 109 1,240 1,190 143 130 -9.1 NM : 360 337 1,675 1,845 603 622 3.2 NY : 630 626 1,550 1,630 977 1,020 4.4 OH : 274 277 1,440 1,490 395 413 4.6 OR : 117 113 1,570 1,560 184 176 -4.3 PA : 552 551 1,600 1,610 883 887 0.5 TX : 340 348 1,650 1,735 561 604 7.7 VT : 140 140 1,485 1,510 208 211 1.4 VA : 102 100 1,370 1,410 140 141 0.7 WA : 236 242 1,910 1,930 451 467 3.5 WI : 1,244 1,249 1,555 1,600 1,934 1,998 3.3 : 23-State : Total : 8,255 8,353 1,652 1,699 13,637 14,190 4.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2007 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 July - September quarters is 0.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final July - September estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.16 million head by more than 0.3 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.5 percent. Reliability of July-September Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.5 0.9 415 157 27 362 7 3 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.3 0.5 46 16 2 61 7 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 July-September quarters. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch (202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Shawn Clark, Head, Livestock Section (202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess - Hogs and Pigs (202) 720-3106 Vacant - Dairy Products (202) 690-3236 Jason Hardegree - Milk Production and Milk Cows (202) 720-3278 Scott Hollis - Sheep & Lambs, Goats & Kids (202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Cattle, Cattle on Feed (202) 720-3040 Benita Hodge - Livestock Slaughter (515) 284-4340 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices (202) 690-2168 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. Starting with the NASS Home Page at www.nass.usda.gov, under the right navigation, Receive reports by Email, click on National or State. Follow the instructions on the screen. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK: 800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada) Other areas, please call 703-605-6220 FAX: 703-605-6900 (Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ASSISTANCE For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, and where applicable, sex, marital status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, genetic information, political beliefs, reprisal, or because all or a part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA's TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write to USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, or call (800) 795-3272 (voice) or (202) 720-6382 (TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.