Da 1-1 (3-08) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 17, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Jason Hardegree at 202-720-3278, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. February Milk Production up 6.0 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during February totaled 13.9 billion pounds, up 6.0 percent from February 2007. January revised production at 14.7 billion pounds, was up 2.7 percent from January 2007. The January revision represented an increase of 40 million pounds or 0.3 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,653 pounds for February, 69 pounds above February 2007. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.42 million head, 136,000 head more than February 2007, and 9,000 head more than January 2008. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : From : : : : : : : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head --- Pounds -- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,138 5,040 46,058 Apr-Jun : 9,138 5,189 47,419 Jul-Sep : 9,159 5,034 46,110 Oct-Dec : 9,198 5,003 46,015 : Annual : 9,158 20,267 185,602 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : from : : : : : : : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,284 8,413 1,726 1,746 14,302 14,688 2.7 Feb : 8,286 8,422 1,584 1,653 13,125 13,919 6.0 Mar : 8,295 1,783 14,787 Apr : 8,292 1,745 14,470 May : 8,298 1,791 14,860 Jun : 8,302 1,712 14,216 Jul : 8,322 1,742 14,500 Aug : 8,330 1,719 14,323 Sep : 8,341 1,645 13,718 Oct : 8,355 1,697 14,176 Nov : 8,369 1,654 13,843 Dec : 8,389 1,718 14,414 : Annual : 8,322 20,516 170,734 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2008 previous month revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : From : : : : : : : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,135 9,240 1,708 1,725 15,605 15,941 2.2 Feb : 9,136 9,248 1,567 1,634 14,321 15,107 5.5 Mar : 9,142 1,765 16,132 Apr : 9,132 1,726 15,763 May : 9,138 1,771 16,180 Jun : 9,144 1,692 15,476 Jul : 9,153 1,717 15,714 Aug : 9,159 1,695 15,525 Sep : 9,166 1,622 14,871 Oct : 9,181 1,674 15,370 Nov : 9,196 1,633 15,013 Dec : 9,217 1,696 15,632 : Annual : 9,158 20,267 185,602 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2008 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, February 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : From : : : : : : : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 175 185 1,930 1,960 338 363 7.4 CA : 1,795 1,841 1,755 1,805 3,150 3,323 5.5 CO : 115 125 1,670 1,815 192 227 18.2 FL : 130 124 1,415 1,490 184 185 0.5 ID : 504 534 1,680 1,760 847 940 11.0 IL : 103 102 1,460 1,515 150 155 3.3 IN : 165 167 1,580 1,600 261 267 2.3 IA : 211 216 1,620 1,600 342 346 1.2 KS : 110 109 1,510 1,660 166 181 9.0 KY : 93 91 1,100 1,110 102 101 -1.0 MI : 328 344 1,750 1,760 574 605 5.4 MN : 455 463 1,485 1,525 676 706 4.4 MO : 115 110 1,180 1,170 136 129 -5.1 NM : 353 339 1,535 1,790 542 607 12.0 NY : 628 626 1,480 1,590 929 995 7.1 OH : 275 279 1,380 1,440 380 402 5.8 OR : 115 114 1,590 1,475 183 168 -8.2 PA : 548 551 1,500 1,530 822 843 2.6 TX : 347 370 1,640 1,785 569 660 16.0 VT : 140 140 1,385 1,500 194 210 8.2 VA : 100 98 1,380 1,450 138 142 2.9 WA : 235 244 1,780 1,850 418 451 7.9 WI : 1,246 1,250 1,470 1,530 1,832 1,913 4.4 : 23-State : Total : 8,286 8,422 1,584 1,653 13,125 13,919 6.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, January 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : From : : : : : : : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 175 185 2,030 2,020 355 374 5.4 CA : 1,792 1,839 1,880 1,900 3,369 3,494 3.7 CO : 115 122 1,855 1,945 213 237 11.3 FL : 130 124 1,470 1,500 191 186 -2.6 ID : 502 534 1,850 1,870 929 999 7.5 IL : 103 103 1,645 1,615 169 166 -1.8 IN : 165 167 1,720 1,710 284 286 0.7 IA : 210 216 1,730 1,680 363 363 KS : 110 109 1,670 1,695 184 185 0.5 KY : 93 91 1,220 1,180 113 107 -5.3 MI : 328 344 1,945 1,910 638 657 3.0 MN : 455 463 1,635 1,610 744 745 0.1 MO : 115 110 1,300 1,225 150 135 -10.0 NM : 357 340 1,690 1,880 603 639 6.0 NY : 628 626 1,610 1,660 1,011 1,039 2.8 OH : 275 278 1,530 1,540 421 428 1.7 OR : 115 114 1,670 1,555 192 177 -7.8 PA : 549 552 1,640 1,630 900 900 TX : 347 365 1,780 1,855 618 677 9.5 VT : 140 140 1,560 1,585 218 222 1.8 VA : 100 98 1,540 1,540 154 151 -1.9 WA : 235 243 1,930 1,965 454 477 5.1 WI : 1,245 1,250 1,630 1,635 2,029 2,044 0.7 : 23-State : Total : 8,284 8,413 1,726 1,746 14,302 14,688 2.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2008 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 October - December quarters is 0.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final October - December estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.2 million head by more than 0.3 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.6 percent. Reliability of October-December Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.4 0.7 322 135 15 265 6 4 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.3 0.6 55 16 1 73 7 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 October-December quarters. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch......................................(202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section......................................(202) 690-2424 Bruce Boess - Hogs and Pigs........................................(202) 720-3106 Jim Collom - Dairy Products........................................(202) 690-3236 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices.................................(202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Milk Production and Milk Cows....................(202) 720-3278 Benita Hodge - Livestock Slaughter.................................(515) 284-4340 Scott Hollis - Sheep and Goats.....................................(202) 690-2424 Mike Miller - Cattle, Cattle on Feed...............................(202) 720-3040 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. Starting with the NASS Home Page at www.nass.usda.gov, under the right navigation, Receive reports by Email, click on National or State. Follow the instructions on the screen. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK: 800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada) Other areas, please call 703-605-6220 FAX: 703-605-6900 (Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ASSISTANCE For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, and where applicable, sex, marital status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, genetic information, political beliefs, reprisal, or because all or a part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA's TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write to USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, or call (800) 795-3272 (voice) or (202) 720-6382 (TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.