Da 1-1 (6-08) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released June 18, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Mike Miller at 202-720-3278, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. May Milk Production up 3.4 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during May totaled 15.4 billion pounds, up 3.4 percent from May 2007. April revised production at 14.8 billion pounds, was up 2.6 percent from April 2007. The April revision represented an increase of 6 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,816 pounds for May, 25 pounds above May 2007. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.46 million head, 162,000 head more than May 2007, and 12,000 head more than April 2008. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : From : : : : : : : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,138 9,250 5,040 5,140 46,058 47,542 3.2 Apr-Jun : 9,138 5,189 47,419 Jul-Sep : 9,159 5,034 46,110 Oct-Dec : 9,198 5,003 46,015 : Annual : 9,158 20,267 185,602 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : from : : : : : : : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,284 8,413 1,726 1,746 14,302 14,688 2.7 Feb : 8,286 8,427 1,584 1,654 13,125 13,942 6.2 Mar : 8,295 8,436 1,783 1,794 14,787 15,134 2.3 Apr : 8,292 8,448 1,745 1,757 14,470 14,839 2.6 May : 8,298 8,460 1,791 1,816 14,860 15,361 3.4 Jun : 8,302 1,712 14,216 Jul : 8,322 1,742 14,500 Aug : 8,330 1,719 14,323 Sep : 8,341 1,645 13,718 Oct : 8,355 1,697 14,176 Nov : 8,369 1,654 13,843 Dec : 8,389 1,718 14,414 : Annual : 8,322 20,516 170,734 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2008 previous month revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : From : : : : : : : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,135 9,240 1,708 1,726 15,605 15,945 2.2 Feb : 9,136 9,252 1,567 1,637 14,321 15,145 5.8 Mar : 9,142 9,259 1,765 1,777 16,132 16,452 2.0 Apr : 9,132 9,270 1,726 1,738 15,763 16,113 2.2 May : 9,138 9,281 1,771 1,796 16,180 16,667 3.0 Jun : 9,144 1,692 15,476 Jul : 9,153 1,717 15,714 Aug : 9,159 1,695 15,525 Sep : 9,166 1,622 14,871 Oct : 9,181 1,674 15,370 Nov : 9,196 1,633 15,013 Dec : 9,217 1,696 15,632 : Annual : 9,158 20,267 185,602 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2008 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, May 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : From : : : : : : : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 182 186 2,105 2,165 383 403 5.2 CA : 1,806 1,848 1,925 1,935 3,477 3,576 2.8 CO : 116 127 1,990 1,990 231 253 9.5 FL : 128 123 1,615 1,565 207 192 -7.2 ID : 506 550 1,930 1,940 977 1,067 9.2 IL : 103 102 1,670 1,665 172 170 -1.2 IN : 167 168 1,740 1,730 291 291 IA : 212 216 1,775 1,720 376 372 -1.1 KS : 109 110 1,710 1,875 186 206 10.8 KY : 91 92 1,250 1,210 114 111 -2.6 MI : 332 347 1,935 1,900 642 659 2.6 MN : 458 463 1,660 1,635 760 757 -0.4 MO : 114 111 1,380 1,365 157 152 -3.2 NM : 341 343 1,870 2,040 638 700 9.7 NY : 626 626 1,690 1,770 1,058 1,108 4.7 OH : 276 282 1,640 1,650 453 465 2.6 OR : 115 113 1,710 1,620 197 183 -7.1 PA : 549 548 1,720 1,720 944 943 -0.1 TX : 347 372 1,870 1,995 649 742 14.3 VT : 140 140 1,555 1,600 218 224 2.8 VA : 100 98 1,570 1,570 157 154 -1.9 WA : 233 244 2,025 2,025 472 494 4.7 WI : 1,247 1,251 1,685 1,710 2,101 2,139 1.8 : 23-State : Total : 8,298 8,460 1,791 1,816 14,860 15,361 3.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, April 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : From : : : : : : : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 182 186 2,090 2,140 380 398 4.7 CA : 1,801 1,847 1,915 1,900 3,449 3,509 1.7 CO : 115 127 1,900 1,910 219 243 11.0 FL : 129 123 1,580 1,540 204 189 -7.4 ID : 503 543 1,860 1,850 936 1,005 7.4 IL : 103 102 1,645 1,615 169 165 -2.4 IN : 168 168 1,725 1,690 290 284 -2.1 IA : 211 216 1,710 1,670 361 361 KS : 110 110 1,680 1,820 185 200 8.1 KY : 92 92 1,270 1,215 117 112 -4.3 MI : 331 345 1,915 1,825 634 630 -0.6 MN : 455 463 1,610 1,580 733 732 -0.1 MO : 114 111 1,395 1,325 159 147 -7.5 NM : 345 342 1,740 1,990 600 681 13.5 NY : 627 626 1,605 1,670 1,006 1,045 3.9 OH : 275 282 1,550 1,575 426 444 4.2 OR : 115 113 1,670 1,550 192 175 -8.9 PA : 550 549 1,690 1,670 930 917 -1.4 TX : 347 370 1,860 1,965 645 727 12.7 VT : 140 140 1,495 1,560 209 218 4.3 VA : 100 98 1,550 1,570 155 154 -0.6 WA : 233 244 1,970 1,950 459 476 3.7 WI : 1,246 1,251 1,615 1,620 2,012 2,027 0.7 : 23-State : Total : 8,292 8,448 1,745 1,757 14,470 14,839 2.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2008 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk cow inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final May estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 8.46 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.2 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Months : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------ Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.2 0.3 47 19 0 74 9 14 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.1 0.2 15 7 0 15 1 20 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on the 23 State total for the past 24 months. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch......................... (202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section......................... (202) 690-2424 Jim Collom - Dairy Products........................... (202) 690-3236 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices.................... (202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed.............. (202) 720-3040 Benita Hodge - Livestock Slaughter.................... (515) 284-4340 Scott Hollis - Sheep and Goats........................ (202) 690-2424 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows........... (202) 720-3278 Nicholas Streff - Hogs and Pigs....................... (202) 720-3106 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. 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