Da 1-1 (10-08) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released October 17, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Mike Miller at 202-720-3278, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. September Milk Production up 1.9 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during September totaled 14.0 billion pounds, up 1.9 percent from September 2007. August revised production at 14.6 billion pounds, was up 1.7 percent from August 2007. The August revision represented an increase of 24 million pounds or 0.2 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,652 pounds for September, 7 pounds above September 2007. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.46 million head, 118,000 head more than September 2007, but 8,000 head less than August 2008. July - September Milk Production up 1.6 Percent Milk production in the U.S. during the July - September quarter totaled 46.8 billion pounds, up 1.6 percent from the July - September quarter last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the quarter was 9.28 million head, 118,000 head more than the same period last year. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : From : : : : : : : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,138 9,249 5,040 5,140 46,058 47,541 3.2 Apr-Jun : 9,138 9,274 5,189 5,249 47,419 48,683 2.7 Jul-Sep : 9,159 9,277 5,034 5,049 46,110 46,841 1.6 Oct-Dec : 9,198 5,003 46,015 : Annual : 9,158 20,267 185,602 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : from : : : : : : : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,284 8,413 1,726 1,746 14,302 14,688 2.7 Feb : 8,286 8,427 1,584 1,654 13,125 13,942 6.2 Mar : 8,295 8,436 1,783 1,794 14,787 15,134 2.3 Apr : 8,292 8,448 1,745 1,757 14,470 14,839 2.6 May : 8,298 8,459 1,791 1,818 14,860 15,375 3.5 Jun : 8,302 8,460 1,712 1,735 14,216 14,678 3.2 Jul : 8,322 8,470 1,742 1,743 14,500 14,762 1.8 Aug : 8,330 8,467 1,719 1,720 14,323 14,563 1.7 Sep : 8,341 8,459 1,645 1,652 13,718 13,976 1.9 Oct : 8,355 1,697 14,176 Nov : 8,369 1,654 13,843 Dec : 8,389 1,718 14,414 : Annual : 8,322 20,516 170,734 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2008 previous month revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : From : : : : : : : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,135 9,239 1,708 1,727 15,605 15,952 2.2 Feb : 9,136 9,251 1,567 1,637 14,321 15,145 5.8 Mar : 9,142 9,258 1,765 1,776 16,132 16,444 1.9 Apr : 9,132 9,268 1,726 1,737 15,763 16,098 2.1 May : 9,138 9,277 1,771 1,797 16,180 16,671 3.0 Jun : 9,144 9,277 1,692 1,715 15,476 15,914 2.8 Jul : 9,153 9,284 1,717 1,720 15,714 15,969 1.6 Aug : 9,159 9,279 1,695 1,698 15,525 15,754 1.5 Sep : 9,166 9,269 1,622 1,631 14,871 15,118 1.7 Oct : 9,181 1,674 15,370 Nov : 9,196 1,633 15,013 Dec : 9,217 1,696 15,632 : Annual : 9,158 20,267 185,602 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2008 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, September 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : From : : : : : : : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 182 184 1,705 1,720 310 316 1.9 CA : 1,822 1,841 1,785 1,780 3,252 3,277 0.8 CO : 120 130 1,900 1,850 228 241 5.7 FL : 125 120 1,150 1,165 144 140 -2.8 ID : 521 554 1,880 1,870 979 1,036 5.8 IL : 103 102 1,440 1,425 148 145 -2.0 IN : 166 166 1,635 1,550 271 257 -5.2 IA : 215 215 1,580 1,630 340 350 2.9 KS : 108 114 1,610 1,670 174 190 9.2 KY : 88 87 1,040 1,020 92 89 -3.3 MI : 339 350 1,830 1,770 620 620 MN : 463 465 1,485 1,500 688 698 1.5 MO : 109 111 1,140 1,100 124 122 -1.6 NM : 336 336 1,800 1,880 605 632 4.5 NY : 626 626 1,570 1,590 983 995 1.2 OH : 277 278 1,425 1,450 395 403 2.0 OR : 115 114 1,550 1,595 178 182 2.2 PA : 550 548 1,550 1,530 853 838 -1.8 TX : 348 385 1,640 1,710 571 658 15.2 VT : 140 139 1,465 1,470 205 204 -0.5 VA : 100 97 1,350 1,370 135 133 -1.5 WA : 240 244 1,905 1,900 457 464 1.5 WI : 1,248 1,253 1,575 1,585 1,966 1,986 1.0 : 23-State : Total : 8,341 8,459 1,645 1,652 13,718 13,976 1.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, August 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : From : : : : : : : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 181 184 1,760 1,765 319 325 1.9 CA : 1,819 1,843 1,900 1,845 3,456 3,400 -1.6 CO : 119 130 1,975 1,930 235 251 6.8 FL : 126 120 1,215 1,240 153 149 -2.6 ID : 520 555 1,970 1,970 1,024 1,093 6.7 IL : 103 102 1,480 1,455 152 148 -2.6 IN : 166 166 1,670 1,605 277 266 -4.0 IA : 215 215 1,640 1,660 353 357 1.1 KS : 108 113 1,600 1,770 173 200 15.6 KY : 88 88 1,035 1,030 91 91 MI : 338 350 1,915 1,860 647 651 0.6 MN : 463 465 1,555 1,565 720 728 1.1 MO : 109 112 1,170 1,110 128 124 -3.1 NM : 335 337 1,855 1,935 621 652 5.0 NY : 625 626 1,640 1,690 1,025 1,058 3.2 OH : 276 280 1,470 1,520 406 426 4.9 OR : 114 114 1,665 1,650 190 188 -1.1 PA : 550 548 1,610 1,590 886 871 -1.7 TX : 348 385 1,670 1,770 581 681 17.2 VT : 139 140 1,540 1,535 214 215 0.5 VA : 100 97 1,390 1,410 139 137 -1.4 WA : 240 245 2,000 1,985 480 486 1.3 WI : 1,248 1,252 1,645 1,650 2,053 2,066 0.6 : 23-State : Total : 8,330 8,467 1,719 1,720 14,323 14,563 1.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2008 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised April-June, 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Apr-Jun Milk Cows 1/ : Apr-Jun Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds --- Percent : AL : 13.0 12.0 54 51 -5.6 AK : 0.6 0.6 2.2 1.8 -18.2 AZ : 182 186 1,121 1,164 3.8 AR : 17.5 15.5 60 54 -10.0 CA : 1,806 1,848 10,267 10,513 2.4 CO : 116 127 681 744 9.3 CT : 19.0 19.0 94 94 DE : 7.0 6.5 30.0 29.0 -3.3 FL : 128 123 596 557 -6.5 GA : 77 77 388 364 -6.2 HI : 3.0 1.7 9.7 4.8 -50.5 ID : 506 548 2,883 3,114 8.0 IL : 103 102 501 495 -1.2 IN : 167 167 861 849 -1.4 IA : 212 216 1,095 1,096 0.1 KS : 109 110 551 601 9.1 KY : 91 92 336 320 -4.8 LA : 29 26 97 90 -7.2 ME : 32 33 148 154 4.1 MD : 59 56 265 267 0.8 MA : 15.0 14.5 65 67 3.1 MI : 332 347 1,912 1,929 0.9 MN : 458 463 2,213 2,228 0.7 MS : 21 21 90 80 -11.1 MO : 113 111 455 435 -4.4 MT : 18.0 17.0 87 80 -8.0 NE : 59 57 275 265 -3.6 NV : 27 27 135 140 3.7 NH : 14.5 15.0 74 76 2.7 NJ : 10.0 10.0 43 44 2.3 NM : 340 341 1,846 2,049 11.0 NY : 626 626 3,078 3,205 4.1 NC : 48 47 242 233 -3.7 ND : 30 27 116 107 -7.8 OH : 276 282 1,307 1,346 3.0 OK : 69 64 295 268 -9.2 OR : 115 113 577 532 -7.8 PA : 549 548 2,747 2,750 0.1 RI : 1.1 1.1 4.6 5.2 13.0 SC : 18.5 18.0 89 88 -1.1 SD : 85 89 417 446 7.0 TN : 64 59 272 255 -6.3 TX : 347 373 1,900 2,174 14.4 UT : 85 85 435 445 2.3 VT : 140 140 637 661 3.8 VA : 100 98 456 447 -2.0 WA : 233 244 1,393 1,451 4.2 WV : 13.0 12.0 51 46 -9.8 WI : 1,247 1,251 6,133 6,232 1.6 WY : 7.2 7.0 34.9 36.1 3.4 : US 3/ : 9,138 9,274 47,419 48,683 2.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary July-September, 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jul-Sep Milk Cows 1/ : Jul-Sep Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds --- Percent : AL : 13.0 12.0 40 38 -5.0 AK : 0.6 0.6 2.5 1.7 -32.0 AZ : 181 184 968 977 0.9 AR : 17.0 14.5 49 45 -8.2 CA : 1,819 1,843 10,158 10,092 -0.6 CO : 119 130 702 744 6.0 CT : 19.0 18.5 89 88 -1.1 DE : 6.5 6.5 26.0 25.0 -3.8 FL : 126 120 472 455 -3.6 GA : 77 75 312 305 -2.2 HI : 2.6 1.6 7.4 4.4 -40.5 ID : 519 555 3,020 3,219 6.6 IL : 103 102 460 448 -2.6 IN : 166 166 832 797 -4.2 IA : 215 215 1,059 1,064 0.5 KS : 108 113 526 592 12.5 KY : 88 88 285 273 -4.2 LA : 28 26 71 67 -5.6 ME : 33 33 151 154 2.0 MD : 57 56 249 243 -2.4 MA : 14.5 14.5 63 64 1.6 MI : 338 349 1,919 1,922 0.2 MN : 463 465 2,137 2,168 1.5 MS : 21 20 68 62 -8.8 MO : 109 111 386 376 -2.6 MT : 17.0 17.0 82 81 -1.2 NE : 58 59 260 272 4.6 NV : 27 27 138 142 2.9 NH : 14.5 15.0 72 73 1.4 NJ : 10.0 10.0 41 41 NM : 335 337 1,846 1,960 6.2 NY : 626 626 3,041 3,111 2.3 NC : 47 46 216 207 -4.2 ND : 28 27 108 104 -3.7 OH : 276 280 1,223 1,263 3.3 OK : 68 63 282 249 -11.7 OR : 114 114 559 561 0.4 PA : 550 547 2,625 2,599 -1.0 RI : 1.1 1.1 4.6 4.9 6.5 SC : 18.0 18.0 71 70 -1.4 SD : 85 91 410 458 11.7 TN : 62 58 224 212 -5.4 TX : 348 384 1,751 2,048 17.0 UT : 85 85 448 447 -0.2 VT : 139 140 635 641 0.9 VA : 100 97 419 408 -2.6 WA : 239 245 1,409 1,440 2.2 WV : 13.0 12.0 49 45 -8.2 WI : 1,248 1,252 6,109 6,143 0.6 WY : 7.0 7.0 35.0 36.6 4.6 : US 3/ : 9,159 9,277 46,110 46,841 1.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 20 quarters is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.28 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.1 percent. Reliability of Quarterly Milk Production Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.2 0.4 201 80 0 228 6 13 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.1 0.1 11 5 0 14 5 13 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on the U.S. total for the past 20 quarters. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch............................(202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section............................(202) 690-2424 Jim Collom - Dairy Products..............................(202) 690-3236 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices.......................(202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed.................(202) 720-3040 Benita Hodge - Livestock Slaughter.......................(515) 284-4340 Everett Olbert - Sheep and Goats.........................(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows..............(202) 720-3278 Nick Streff - Hogs and Pigs..............................(202) 720-3106 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. 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