Da 1-1 (12-08) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released December 18, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Mike Miller at 202-720-3278, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. November Milk Production up 1.4 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during November totaled 14.0 billion pounds, up 1.4 percent from November 2007. October revised production at 14.4 billion pounds, was up 1.6 percent from October 2007. The October revision represented an increase of 16 million pounds or 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,657 pounds for November, 3 pounds above November 2007. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.47 million head, 99,000 head more than November 2007, and 6,000 head more than October 2008. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : From : : : : : : : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,138 9,249 5,040 5,140 46,058 47,541 3.2 Apr-Jun : 9,138 9,274 5,189 5,249 47,419 48,683 2.7 Jul-Sep : 9,159 9,277 5,034 5,048 46,110 46,828 1.6 Oct-Dec : 9,198 5,003 46,015 : Annual : 9,158 20,267 185,602 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : from : : : : : : : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,284 8,413 1,726 1,746 14,302 14,688 2.7 Feb : 8,286 8,427 1,584 1,654 13,125 13,942 6.2 Mar : 8,295 8,436 1,783 1,794 14,787 15,134 2.3 Apr : 8,292 8,448 1,745 1,757 14,470 14,839 2.6 May : 8,298 8,459 1,791 1,818 14,860 15,375 3.5 Jun : 8,302 8,460 1,712 1,735 14,216 14,678 3.2 Jul : 8,322 8,470 1,742 1,743 14,500 14,762 1.8 Aug : 8,330 8,467 1,719 1,720 14,323 14,563 1.7 Sep : 8,341 8,459 1,645 1,651 13,718 13,963 1.8 Oct : 8,355 8,462 1,697 1,701 14,176 14,398 1.6 Nov : 8,369 8,468 1,654 1,657 13,843 14,032 1.4 Dec : 8,389 1,718 14,414 : Annual : 8,322 20,516 170,734 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2008 previous month revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : From : : : : : : : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,135 9,239 1,708 1,727 15,605 15,952 2.2 Feb : 9,136 9,251 1,567 1,637 14,321 15,145 5.8 Mar : 9,142 9,258 1,765 1,776 16,132 16,444 1.9 Apr : 9,132 9,268 1,726 1,737 15,763 16,098 2.1 May : 9,138 9,277 1,771 1,797 16,180 16,671 3.0 Jun : 9,144 9,277 1,692 1,715 15,476 15,914 2.8 Jul : 9,153 9,284 1,717 1,720 15,714 15,969 1.6 Aug : 9,159 9,279 1,695 1,698 15,525 15,754 1.5 Sep : 9,166 9,269 1,622 1,630 14,871 15,105 1.6 Oct : 9,181 9,271 1,674 1,680 15,370 15,575 1.3 Nov : 9,196 9,276 1,633 1,637 15,013 15,182 1.1 Dec : 9,217 1,696 15,632 : Annual : 9,158 20,267 185,602 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2008 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, November 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : From : : : : : : : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 185 187 1,830 1,850 339 346 2.1 CA : 1,830 1,840 1,810 1,795 3,312 3,303 -0.3 CO : 120 130 1,900 1,845 228 240 5.3 FL : 125 119 1,200 1,300 150 155 3.3 ID : 525 554 1,810 1,800 950 997 4.9 IL : 103 102 1,470 1,470 151 150 -0.7 IN : 166 167 1,650 1,580 274 264 -3.6 IA : 215 215 1,590 1,630 342 350 2.3 KS : 108 118 1,640 1,720 177 203 14.7 KY : 88 87 1,100 1,100 97 96 -1.0 MI : 343 352 1,825 1,755 626 618 -1.3 MN : 463 465 1,500 1,525 695 709 2.0 MO : 109 110 1,190 1,175 130 129 -0.8 NM : 337 333 1,780 1,900 600 633 5.5 NY : 626 624 1,575 1,580 986 986 OH : 277 278 1,430 1,450 396 403 1.8 OR : 115 114 1,490 1,570 171 179 4.7 PA : 550 548 1,580 1,510 869 827 -4.8 TX : 351 390 1,760 1,765 618 688 11.3 VT : 140 139 1,465 1,460 205 203 -1.0 VA : 100 97 1,400 1,410 140 137 -2.1 WA : 244 245 1,850 1,850 451 453 0.4 WI : 1,249 1,254 1,550 1,565 1,936 1,963 1.4 : 23-State : Total : 8,369 8,468 1,654 1,657 13,843 14,032 1.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, October 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : From : : : : : : : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 184 185 1,850 1,845 340 341 0.3 CA : 1,826 1,840 1,870 1,840 3,415 3,386 -0.8 CO : 120 130 1,930 1,890 232 246 6.0 FL : 125 119 1,120 1,230 140 146 4.3 ID : 522 554 1,880 1,870 981 1,036 5.6 IL : 103 102 1,490 1,490 153 152 -0.7 IN : 166 166 1,685 1,625 280 270 -3.6 IA : 215 215 1,630 1,690 350 363 3.7 KS : 108 115 1,650 1,765 178 203 14.0 KY : 87 87 1,115 1,100 97 96 -1.0 MI : 341 352 1,860 1,810 634 637 0.5 MN : 463 465 1,530 1,555 708 723 2.1 MO : 109 110 1,190 1,180 130 130 NM : 337 334 1,845 1,920 622 641 3.1 NY : 626 625 1,630 1,620 1,020 1,013 -0.7 OH : 277 278 1,470 1,510 407 420 3.2 OR : 114 114 1,545 1,630 176 186 5.7 PA : 551 549 1,610 1,570 887 862 -2.8 TX : 350 388 1,740 1,790 609 695 14.1 VT : 140 139 1,510 1,490 211 207 -1.9 VA : 100 97 1,410 1,435 141 139 -1.4 WA : 242 245 1,930 1,920 467 470 0.6 WI : 1,249 1,253 1,600 1,625 1,998 2,036 1.9 : 23-State : Total : 8,355 8,462 1,697 1,701 14,176 14,398 1.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2008 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk cow inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 8.47 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.2 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Months : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------ Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.2 0.3 42 19 0 74 8 15 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.1 0.2 14 6 0 15 2 18 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on the 23 State total for the past 24 months. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch.............................(202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section.............................(202) 690-2424 Jim Collom - Dairy Products...............................(202) 690-3236 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices........................(202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed..................(202) 720-3040 Benita Hodge - Livestock Slaughter........................(515) 284-4340 Everett Olbert - Sheep and Goats..........................(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows...............(202) 720-3278 Nick Streff - Hogs and Pigs...............................(202) 720-3106 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. 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