Da 1-1 (6-09) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released June 18, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Mike Miller at 202-720-3278, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. May Milk Production up 0.2 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during May totaled 15.5 billion pounds, up 0.2 percent from May 2008. April revised production at 14.9 billion pounds, was up 0.1 percent from April 2008. The April revision represented an increase of 10 million pounds or 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,828 pounds for May, 9 pounds above May 2008. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.47 million head, 25,000 head less than May 2008, and 10,000 head less than April 2009. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2008-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : From : : : : : : : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,286 9,297 5,127 5,093 47,610 47,351 -0.5 Apr-Jun : 9,315 5,236 48,774 Jul-Sep : 9,330 5,025 46,881 Oct-Dec : 9,330 5,008 46,727 : Annual : 9,315 20,396 189,992 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2008-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : from : : : : : : : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,445 8,504 1,747 1,753 14,750 14,907 1.1 Feb : 8,457 8,486 1,656 1,606 14,007 13,627 -2.7 Mar : 8,467 8,481 1,794 1,794 15,191 15,211 0.1 Apr : 8,482 8,481 1,757 1,759 14,901 14,916 0.1 May : 8,496 8,471 1,819 1,828 15,451 15,483 0.2 Jun : 8,500 1,736 14,760 Jul : 8,515 1,744 14,848 Aug : 8,515 1,718 14,626 Sep : 8,510 1,650 14,041 Oct : 8,512 1,700 14,469 Nov : 8,519 1,654 14,089 Dec : 8,519 1,729 14,728 : Annual : 8,495 20,704 175,861 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2009 previous month revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2008-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : From : : : : : : : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,276 9,314 1,722 1,732 15,976 16,135 1.0 Feb : 9,287 9,291 1,634 1,588 15,176 14,753 -2.8 Mar : 9,295 9,286 1,771 1,773 16,458 16,463 Apr : 9,307 9,286 1,733 1,736 16,125 16,125 May : 9,318 9,275 1,793 1,804 16,707 16,730 0.1 Jun : 9,321 1,710 15,942 Jul : 9,335 1,713 15,995 Aug : 9,331 1,689 15,757 Sep : 9,323 1,623 15,129 Oct : 9,324 1,675 15,615 Nov : 9,333 1,630 15,212 Dec : 9,334 1,703 15,900 : Annual : 9,315 20,396 189,992 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2009 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, May 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : From : : : : : : : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 186 184 2,165 2,055 403 378 -6.2 CA : 1,847 1,816 1,940 1,935 3,583 3,514 -1.9 CO : 127 128 1,990 2,020 253 259 2.4 FL : 120 117 1,625 1,700 195 199 2.1 ID : 550 551 1,930 1,900 1,062 1,047 -1.4 IL : 102 102 1,665 1,670 170 170 IN : 168 168 1,730 1,765 291 297 2.1 IA : 216 215 1,740 1,785 376 384 2.1 KS : 115 120 1,790 1,835 206 220 6.8 MI : 350 357 1,935 1,955 677 698 3.1 MN : 463 468 1,645 1,675 762 784 2.9 MO : 111 110 1,365 1,330 152 146 -3.9 NM : 342 332 2,040 2,145 698 712 2.0 NY : 626 621 1,770 1,770 1,108 1,099 -0.8 OH : 282 278 1,660 1,670 468 464 -0.9 OR : 113 114 1,745 1,755 197 200 1.5 PA : 548 547 1,720 1,710 943 935 -0.8 TX : 412 430 1,800 1,835 742 789 6.3 UT : 85 84 1,800 1,805 153 152 -0.7 VT : 140 136 1,600 1,595 224 217 -3.1 VA : 98 96 1,580 1,595 155 153 -1.3 WA : 244 241 2,025 2,020 494 487 -1.4 WI : 1,251 1,256 1,710 1,735 2,139 2,179 1.9 : 23-State : Total : 8,496 8,471 1,819 1,828 15,451 15,483 0.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, April 2008-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : From : : : : : : : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 186 188 2,145 2,050 399 385 -3.5 CA : 1,845 1,821 1,905 1,885 3,515 3,433 -2.3 CO : 127 128 1,910 1,920 243 246 1.2 FL : 120 117 1,568 1,710 188 200 6.4 ID : 543 551 1,850 1,800 1,005 992 -1.3 IL : 102 102 1,615 1,625 165 166 0.6 IN : 168 167 1,690 1,710 284 286 0.7 IA : 216 215 1,670 1,710 361 368 1.9 KS : 115 120 1,740 1,775 200 213 6.5 MI : 347 356 1,840 1,860 638 662 3.8 MN : 463 468 1,580 1,605 732 751 2.6 MO : 111 110 1,325 1,320 147 145 -1.4 NM : 342 332 1,990 2,070 681 687 0.9 NY : 626 623 1,670 1,670 1,045 1,040 -0.5 OH : 281 277 1,580 1,590 444 440 -0.9 OR : 113 114 1,680 1,675 190 191 0.5 PA : 549 549 1,670 1,640 917 900 -1.9 TX : 410 430 1,770 1,810 726 778 7.2 UT : 85 85 1,715 1,720 146 146 VT : 140 136 1,560 1,520 218 207 -5.0 VA : 98 96 1,570 1,585 154 152 -1.3 WA : 244 240 1,950 1,925 476 462 -2.9 WI : 1,251 1,256 1,620 1,645 2,027 2,066 1.9 : 23-State : Total : 8,482 8,481 1,757 1,759 14,901 14,916 0.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2009 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk cow inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 8.47 million head by more than 0.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.9 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Months : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------ Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.2 0.4 60 25 3 102 2 22 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.5 0.9 74 39 1 55 3 21 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on the 23 State total for the past 24 months. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch...............................(202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section...............................(202) 690-2424 Jim Collom - Dairy Products.................................(202) 690-3236 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices..........................(202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed....................(202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter.....................(515) 284-4340 Everett Olbert - Sheep and Goats............................(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows.................(202) 720-3278 Nick Streff - Hogs and Pigs.................................(202) 720-3106 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge. For free access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. 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