Da 1-1 (8-09) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released August 18, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Mike Miller at 202-720-3278, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. July Milk Production up 0.1 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during July totaled 14.9 billion pounds, up 0.1 percent from July 2008. June revised production at 14.8 billion pounds, was up 0.1 percent from June 2008. The June revision represented an increase of 34 million pounds or 0.2 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,769 pounds for July, 25 pounds above July 2008. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.40 million head, 115,000 head less than July 2008, and 34,000 head less than June 2009. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2008-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : From : : : : : : : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,286 9,295 5,127 5,096 47,610 47,363 -0.5 Apr-Jun : 9,315 9,259 5,236 5,277 48,774 48,860 0.2 Jul-Sep : 9,330 5,025 46,881 Oct-Dec : 9,330 5,008 46,727 : Annual : 9,315 20,396 189,992 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2008-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : from : : : : : : : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,445 8,504 1,747 1,753 14,750 14,907 1.1 Feb : 8,457 8,486 1,656 1,606 14,007 13,627 -2.7 Mar : 8,467 8,481 1,794 1,794 15,191 15,211 0.1 Apr : 8,482 8,481 1,757 1,759 14,901 14,916 0.1 May : 8,496 8,473 1,819 1,833 15,451 15,529 0.5 Jun : 8,500 8,434 1,736 1,752 14,760 14,775 0.1 Jul : 8,515 8,400 1,744 1,769 14,848 14,858 0.1 Aug : 8,515 1,718 14,626 Sep : 8,510 1,650 14,041 Oct : 8,512 1,700 14,469 Nov : 8,519 1,654 14,089 Dec : 8,519 1,729 14,728 : Annual : 8,495 20,704 175,861 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2009 previous month revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2008-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : From : : : : : : : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,276 9,312 1,722 1,733 15,976 16,138 1.0 Feb : 9,287 9,289 1,634 1,589 15,176 14,756 -2.8 Mar : 9,295 9,283 1,771 1,774 16,458 16,469 0.1 Apr : 9,307 9,281 1,733 1,738 16,125 16,131 May : 9,318 9,269 1,793 1,811 16,707 16,782 0.4 Jun : 9,321 9,227 1,710 1,728 15,942 15,947 Jul : 9,335 9,190 1,713 1,741 15,995 16,000 Aug : 9,331 1,689 15,757 Sep : 9,323 1,623 15,129 Oct : 9,324 1,675 15,615 Nov : 9,333 1,630 15,212 Dec : 9,334 1,703 15,900 : Annual : 9,315 20,396 189,992 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2009 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, July 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : From : : : : : : : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 185 170 1,815 1,810 336 308 -8.3 CA : 1,847 1,793 1,850 1,810 3,417 3,245 -5.0 CO : 129 124 1,950 2,000 252 248 -1.6 FL : 120 115 1,375 1,470 165 169 2.4 ID : 556 548 1,960 1,920 1,090 1,052 -3.5 IL : 102 102 1,520 1,580 155 161 3.9 IN : 166 168 1,650 1,695 274 285 4.0 IA : 215 215 1,660 1,740 357 374 4.8 KS : 117 117 1,725 1,735 202 203 0.5 MI : 352 358 1,900 1,955 669 700 4.6 MN : 465 469 1,595 1,675 742 786 5.9 MO : 111 108 1,170 1,195 130 129 -0.8 NM : 340 321 1,990 2,050 677 658 -2.8 NY : 626 622 1,690 1,745 1,058 1,085 2.6 OH : 281 278 1,550 1,590 436 442 1.4 OR : 115 114 1,670 1,710 192 195 1.6 PA : 546 545 1,630 1,640 890 894 0.4 TX : 423 423 1,675 1,700 709 719 1.4 UT : 85 83 1,840 1,840 156 153 -1.9 VT : 140 135 1,585 1,570 222 212 -4.5 VA : 97 96 1,425 1,520 138 146 5.8 WA : 245 239 2,000 2,015 490 482 -1.6 WI : 1,252 1,257 1,670 1,760 2,091 2,212 5.8 : 23-State : Total : 8,515 8,400 1,744 1,769 14,848 14,858 0.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, June 2008-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : From : : : : : : : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 186 176 1,950 1,940 363 341 -6.1 CA : 1,847 1,804 1,850 1,820 3,417 3,283 -3.9 CO : 128 126 1,940 1,960 248 247 -0.4 FL : 120 116 1,440 1,535 173 178 2.9 ID : 551 549 1,900 1,880 1,047 1,032 -1.4 IL : 102 102 1,565 1,570 160 160 IN : 166 168 1,650 1,655 274 278 1.5 IA : 216 215 1,660 1,710 359 368 2.5 KS : 116 118 1,680 1,735 195 205 5.1 MI : 351 358 1,860 1,890 653 677 3.7 MN : 463 469 1,585 1,630 734 764 4.1 MO : 110 109 1,240 1,195 136 130 -4.4 NM : 340 327 1,970 2,050 670 670 NY : 626 623 1,680 1,740 1,052 1,084 3.0 OH : 282 277 1,560 1,580 440 438 -0.5 OR : 114 114 1,660 1,675 189 191 1.1 PA : 546 545 1,630 1,630 890 888 -0.2 TX : 417 428 1,690 1,710 705 732 3.8 UT : 85 83 1,780 1,785 151 148 -2.0 VT : 140 135 1,565 1,550 219 209 -4.6 VA : 98 96 1,410 1,500 138 144 4.3 WA : 244 239 1,970 1,970 481 471 -2.1 WI : 1,252 1,257 1,650 1,700 2,066 2,137 3.4 : 23-State : Total : 8,500 8,434 1,736 1,752 14,760 14,775 0.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2009 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk cow inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 8.40 million head by more than 0.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.8 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Months : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------ Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.2 0.4 60 27 3 102 2 22 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.5 0.8 69 36 1 55 4 20 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on the 23 State total for the past 24 months. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch (202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section (202) 690-2424 Jim Collom - Dairy Products (202) 690-3236 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices (202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed (202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter (515) 284-4340 Everett Olbert - Sheep and Goats (202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows (202) 720-3278 Nick Streff - Hogs and Pigs (202) 720-3106 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge. For free access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. 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