Da 1-1 (9-09) Milk Production Washington, D.C. Released September 18, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Mike Miller at 202-720-3278, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. August Milk Production down 0.2 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during August totaled 14.6 billion pounds, down 0.2 percent from August 2008. July revised production at 14.8 billion pounds, was down slightly from July 2008. The July revision represented a decrease of 13 million pounds or 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,743 pounds for August, 25 pounds above August 2008. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.37 million head, 143,000 head less than August 2008, and 28,000 head less than July 2009. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2008-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : From : : : : : : : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,286 9,295 5,127 5,096 47,610 47,363 -0.5 Apr-Jun : 9,315 9,259 5,236 5,277 48,774 48,860 0.2 Jul-Sep : 9,330 5,025 46,881 Oct-Dec : 9,330 5,008 46,727 : Annual : 9,315 20,396 189,992 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2008-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : from : : : : : : : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,445 8,504 1,747 1,753 14,750 14,907 1.1 Feb : 8,457 8,486 1,656 1,606 14,007 13,627 -2.7 Mar : 8,467 8,481 1,794 1,794 15,191 15,211 0.1 Apr : 8,482 8,481 1,757 1,759 14,901 14,916 0.1 May : 8,496 8,473 1,819 1,833 15,451 15,529 0.5 Jun : 8,500 8,434 1,736 1,752 14,760 14,775 0.1 Jul : 8,515 8,400 1,744 1,767 14,848 14,845 Aug : 8,515 8,372 1,718 1,743 14,626 14,594 -0.2 Sep : 8,510 1,650 14,041 Oct : 8,512 1,700 14,469 Nov : 8,519 1,654 14,089 Dec : 8,519 1,729 14,728 : Annual : 8,495 20,704 175,861 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2009 previous month revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2008-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : From : : : : : : : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,276 9,312 1,722 1,733 15,976 16,138 1.0 Feb : 9,287 9,289 1,634 1,589 15,176 14,756 -2.8 Mar : 9,295 9,283 1,771 1,774 16,458 16,469 0.1 Apr : 9,307 9,281 1,733 1,738 16,125 16,131 May : 9,318 9,269 1,793 1,811 16,707 16,782 0.4 Jun : 9,321 9,227 1,710 1,728 15,942 15,947 Jul : 9,335 9,190 1,713 1,739 15,995 15,984 -0.1 Aug : 9,331 9,160 1,689 1,716 15,757 15,715 -0.3 Sep : 9,323 1,623 15,129 Oct : 9,324 1,675 15,615 Nov : 9,333 1,630 15,212 Dec : 9,334 1,703 15,900 : Annual : 9,315 20,396 189,992 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2009 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, August 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : From : : : : : : : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 185 171 1,755 1,760 325 301 -7.4 CA : 1,846 1,782 1,840 1,820 3,397 3,243 -4.5 CO : 130 123 1,930 1,980 251 244 -2.8 FL : 120 114 1,240 1,320 149 150 0.7 ID : 555 548 1,970 1,940 1,093 1,063 -2.7 IL : 102 102 1,455 1,530 148 156 5.4 IN : 166 167 1,605 1,670 266 279 4.9 IA : 215 215 1,660 1,700 357 366 2.5 KS : 117 116 1,710 1,725 200 200 MI : 352 357 1,860 1,920 655 685 4.6 MN : 465 469 1,565 1,620 728 760 4.4 MO : 112 106 1,110 1,180 124 125 0.8 NM : 337 320 1,920 2,000 647 640 -1.1 NY : 626 618 1,690 1,715 1,058 1,060 0.2 OH : 280 278 1,520 1,570 426 436 2.3 OR : 115 114 1,645 1,665 189 190 0.5 PA : 548 545 1,590 1,610 871 877 0.7 TX : 425 420 1,605 1,680 682 706 3.5 UT : 85 83 1,810 1,835 154 152 -1.3 VT : 140 135 1,535 1,520 215 205 -4.7 VA : 97 96 1,410 1,460 137 140 2.2 WA : 245 236 1,990 2,005 488 473 -3.1 WI : 1,252 1,257 1,650 1,705 2,066 2,143 3.7 : 23-State : Total : 8,515 8,372 1,718 1,743 14,626 14,594 -0.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, July 2008-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : From : : : : : : : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 185 171 1,815 1,800 336 308 -8.3 CA : 1,847 1,791 1,850 1,815 3,417 3,251 -4.9 CO : 129 124 1,950 2,000 252 248 -1.6 FL : 120 115 1,375 1,450 165 167 1.2 ID : 556 550 1,960 1,930 1,090 1,062 -2.6 IL : 102 102 1,520 1,580 155 161 3.9 IN : 166 168 1,650 1,695 274 285 4.0 IA : 215 215 1,660 1,740 357 374 4.8 KS : 117 117 1,725 1,735 202 203 0.5 MI : 352 358 1,900 1,955 669 700 4.6 MN : 465 469 1,595 1,670 742 783 5.5 MO : 111 108 1,170 1,195 130 129 -0.8 NM : 340 321 1,990 2,050 677 658 -2.8 NY : 626 621 1,690 1,735 1,058 1,077 1.8 OH : 281 278 1,550 1,610 436 448 2.8 OR : 115 114 1,670 1,695 192 193 0.5 PA : 546 545 1,630 1,640 890 894 0.4 TX : 423 423 1,675 1,700 709 719 1.4 UT : 85 83 1,840 1,840 156 153 -1.9 VT : 140 135 1,585 1,570 222 212 -4.5 VA : 97 96 1,425 1,510 138 145 5.1 WA : 245 239 2,000 2,015 490 482 -1.6 WI : 1,252 1,257 1,670 1,745 2,091 2,193 4.9 : 23-State : Total : 8,515 8,400 1,744 1,767 14,848 14,845 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2009 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk cow inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 8.37 million head by more than 0.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.8 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Months : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------ Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.2 0.4 59 27 3 102 3 21 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.5 0.8 66 33 0 55 4 19 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on the 23 State total for the past 24 months. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch.................................(202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section.................................(202) 690-2424 Jim Collom - Dairy Products...................................(202) 690-3236 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices............................(202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed......................(202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter.......................(515) 284-4340 Everett Olbert - Sheep and Goats..............................(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows...................(202) 720-3278 Nick Streff - Hogs and Pigs...................................(202) 720-3106 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge. 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