Da 1-1 (10-09) Milk Production Washington, D.C. Released October 20, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Mike Miller at 202-720-3278, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. September Milk Production down 0.7 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during September totaled 13.9 billion pounds, down 0.7 percent from September 2008. August revised production at 14.6 billion pounds, was down 0.1 percent from August 2008. The August revision represented an increase of 23 million pounds or 0.2 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,672 pounds for September, 22 pounds above September 2008. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.34 million head, 168,000 head less than September 2008, and 32,000 head less than August 2009. July - September Milk Production down 0.3 Percent Milk production in the U.S. during the July - September quarter totaled 46.8 billion pounds, down 0.3 percent from the July - September quarter last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the quarter was 9.16 million head, 171,000 head less than the same period last year. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2008-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : From : : : : : : : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,286 9,295 5,127 5,096 47,610 47,363 -0.5 Apr-Jun : 9,315 9,260 5,236 5,278 48,774 48,874 0.2 Jul-Sep : 9,330 9,159 5,025 5,105 46,881 46,758 -0.3 Oct-Dec : 9,330 5,008 46,727 : Annual : 9,315 20,396 189,992 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2008-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : from : : : : : : : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,445 8,504 1,747 1,753 14,750 14,907 1.1 Feb : 8,457 8,486 1,656 1,606 14,007 13,627 -2.7 Mar : 8,467 8,481 1,794 1,794 15,191 15,211 0.1 Apr : 8,482 8,481 1,757 1,759 14,901 14,916 0.1 May : 8,496 8,473 1,819 1,833 15,451 15,529 0.5 Jun : 8,500 8,434 1,736 1,752 14,760 14,775 0.1 Jul : 8,515 8,400 1,744 1,767 14,848 14,845 Aug : 8,515 8,374 1,718 1,746 14,626 14,617 -0.1 Sep : 8,510 8,342 1,650 1,672 14,041 13,949 -0.7 Oct : 8,512 1,700 14,469 Nov : 8,519 1,654 14,089 Dec : 8,519 1,729 14,728 : Annual : 8,495 20,704 175,861 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2009 previous month revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2008-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : From : : : : : : : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,276 9,312 1,722 1,733 15,976 16,138 1.0 Feb : 9,287 9,289 1,634 1,589 15,176 14,756 -2.8 Mar : 9,295 9,283 1,771 1,774 16,458 16,469 0.1 Apr : 9,307 9,282 1,733 1,738 16,125 16,135 0.1 May : 9,318 9,270 1,793 1,811 16,707 16,785 0.5 Jun : 9,321 9,228 1,710 1,729 15,942 15,954 0.1 Jul : 9,335 9,190 1,713 1,740 15,995 15,989 Aug : 9,331 9,162 1,689 1,718 15,757 15,743 -0.1 Sep : 9,323 9,126 1,623 1,647 15,129 15,026 -0.7 Oct : 9,324 1,675 15,615 Nov : 9,333 1,630 15,212 Dec : 9,334 1,703 15,900 : Annual : 9,315 20,396 189,992 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2009 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, September 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : From : : : : : : : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 185 167 1,710 1,690 316 282 -10.8 CA : 1,845 1,772 1,775 1,730 3,275 3,066 -6.4 CO : 130 119 1,850 1,880 241 224 -7.1 FL : 120 114 1,160 1,200 139 137 -1.4 ID : 554 547 1,870 1,850 1,036 1,012 -2.3 IL : 102 102 1,425 1,480 145 151 4.1 IN : 166 168 1,550 1,620 257 272 5.8 IA : 215 215 1,630 1,630 350 350 KS : 117 114 1,665 1,675 195 191 -2.1 MI : 352 356 1,790 1,835 630 653 3.7 MN : 465 469 1,490 1,535 693 720 3.9 MO : 111 105 1,100 1,110 122 117 -4.1 NM : 336 318 1,880 1,980 632 630 -0.3 NY : 626 617 1,590 1,590 995 981 -1.4 OH : 279 278 1,450 1,520 405 423 4.4 OR : 115 114 1,590 1,605 183 183 PA : 548 542 1,530 1,560 838 846 1.0 TX : 425 416 1,550 1,660 659 691 4.9 UT : 85 83 1,740 1,760 148 146 -1.4 VT : 139 134 1,470 1,485 204 199 -2.5 VA : 97 96 1,360 1,395 132 134 1.5 WA : 245 238 1,900 1,930 466 459 -1.5 WI : 1,253 1,258 1,580 1,655 1,980 2,082 5.2 : 23-State : Total : 8,510 8,342 1,650 1,672 14,041 13,949 -0.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, August 2008-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : From : : : : : : : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 185 171 1,755 1,790 325 306 -5.8 CA : 1,846 1,782 1,840 1,820 3,397 3,243 -4.5 CO : 130 123 1,930 1,980 251 244 -2.8 FL : 120 114 1,240 1,325 149 151 1.3 ID : 555 548 1,970 1,940 1,093 1,063 -2.7 IL : 102 102 1,455 1,530 148 156 5.4 IN : 166 167 1,605 1,670 266 279 4.9 IA : 215 215 1,660 1,700 357 366 2.5 KS : 117 117 1,710 1,745 200 204 2.0 MI : 352 357 1,860 1,920 655 685 4.6 MN : 465 469 1,565 1,620 728 760 4.4 MO : 112 106 1,110 1,180 124 125 0.8 NM : 337 320 1,920 2,000 647 640 -1.1 NY : 626 618 1,690 1,690 1,058 1,044 -1.3 OH : 280 278 1,520 1,570 426 436 2.3 OR : 115 114 1,645 1,650 189 188 -0.5 PA : 548 545 1,590 1,610 871 877 0.7 TX : 425 420 1,605 1,680 682 706 3.5 UT : 85 83 1,810 1,835 154 152 -1.3 VT : 140 135 1,535 1,520 215 205 -4.7 VA : 97 96 1,410 1,450 137 139 1.5 WA : 245 237 1,990 1,995 488 473 -3.1 WI : 1,252 1,257 1,650 1,730 2,066 2,175 5.3 : 23-State : Total : 8,515 8,374 1,718 1,746 14,626 14,617 -0.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2009 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised April-June, 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Apr-Jun Milk Cows 1/ : Apr-Jun Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds --- Percent : AL : 12.0 11.0 51 45 -11.8 AK : 0.6 0.6 1.8 1.5 -16.7 AZ : 186 183 1,165 1,104 -5.2 AR : 15.5 13.0 54 45 -16.7 CA : 1,846 1,813 10,515 10,228 -2.7 CO : 127 127 744 752 1.1 CT : 19.0 18.0 94 90 -4.3 DE : 6.5 6.0 29.0 27.0 -6.9 FL : 120 117 556 577 3.8 GA : 77 77 364 377 3.6 HI : 1.7 1.5 4.6 5.5 19.6 ID : 548 551 3,114 3,080 -1.1 IL : 102 102 495 496 0.2 IN : 167 168 849 861 1.4 IA : 216 215 1,096 1,120 2.2 KS : 115 119 601 638 6.2 KY : 92 84 324 320 -1.2 LA : 26 23 90 77 -14.4 ME : 33 33 154 152 -1.3 MD : 56 56 267 262 -1.9 MA : 15.0 14.0 66 61 -7.6 MI : 349 357 1,968 2,037 3.5 MN : 463 469 2,228 2,303 3.4 MS : 21.0 18.5 80 70 -12.5 MO : 111 110 435 421 -3.2 MT : 17.0 15.0 80 76 -5.0 NE : 57 62 265 306 15.5 NV : 27 26 134 143 6.7 NH : 15.0 15.0 77 76 -1.3 NJ : 10.0 9.5 44 43 -2.3 NM : 341 330 2,049 2,069 1.0 NY : 626 623 3,205 3,258 1.7 NC : 47 46 233 235 0.9 ND : 26 23 107 98 -8.4 OH : 282 277 1,352 1,332 -1.5 OK : 64 60 268 260 -3.0 OR : 113 114 576 580 0.7 PA : 548 547 2,750 2,723 -1.0 RI : 1.1 1.1 5.2 5.0 -3.8 SC : 18.0 17.0 88 85 -3.4 SD : 89 95 446 483 8.3 TN : 59 56 255 246 -3.5 TX : 413 429 2,173 2,299 5.8 UT : 85 84 450 446 -0.9 VT : 140 136 661 633 -4.2 VA : 98 96 447 451 0.9 WA : 244 240 1,451 1,417 -2.3 WV : 12.0 11.0 46 42 -8.7 WI : 1,251 1,256 6,232 6,395 2.6 WY : 7.0 5.0 34.5 22.9 -33.6 : US 3/ : 9,315 9,260 48,774 48,874 0.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary July-September, 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jul-Sep Milk Cows 1/ : Jul-Sep Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds --- Percent : AL : 12.0 11.0 38 35 -7.9 AK : 0.6 0.6 1.7 1.5 -11.8 AZ : 185 170 977 896 -8.3 AR : 14.5 13.0 44 38 -13.6 CA : 1,846 1,782 10,089 9,560 -5.2 CO : 130 122 744 716 -3.8 CT : 19.0 18.0 88 86 -2.3 DE : 6.5 5.5 25.0 23.0 -8.0 FL : 120 114 453 455 0.4 GA : 75 77 305 319 4.6 HI : 1.6 1.5 4.4 5.2 18.2 ID : 555 548 3,219 3,137 -2.5 IL : 102 102 448 468 4.5 IN : 166 168 797 836 4.9 IA : 215 215 1,064 1,090 2.4 KS : 117 116 597 598 0.2 KY : 88 83 272 280 2.9 LA : 26 22 66 56 -15.2 ME : 33 33 154 152 -1.3 MD : 56 55 242 238 -1.7 MA : 14.5 13.5 63 57 -9.5 MI : 352 357 1,954 2,038 4.3 MN : 465 469 2,163 2,263 4.6 MS : 20.0 17.5 62 51 -17.7 MO : 111 106 376 371 -1.3 MT : 17.0 15.0 80 75 -6.3 NE : 59 61 272 306 12.5 NV : 27 25 140 136 -2.9 NH : 15.0 15.0 74 73 -1.4 NJ : 10.0 9.5 39 40 2.6 NM : 338 320 1,956 1,928 -1.4 NY : 626 619 3,111 3,102 -0.3 NC : 46 45 207 207 ND : 26 22 104 95 -8.7 OH : 280 278 1,267 1,307 3.2 OK : 63 58 261 238 -8.8 OR : 115 114 564 564 PA : 547 544 2,599 2,617 0.7 RI : 1.1 1.1 5.0 4.8 -4.0 SC : 18.0 17.5 70 72 2.9 SD : 91 95 458 481 5.0 TN : 58 55 212 212 TX : 424 420 2,050 2,116 3.2 UT : 85 83 458 451 -1.5 VT : 140 135 641 616 -3.9 VA : 97 96 407 418 2.7 WA : 245 238 1,444 1,414 -2.1 WV : 12.0 11.0 45 41 -8.9 WI : 1,252 1,257 6,137 6,450 5.1 WY : 7.0 5.0 34.1 24.2 -29.0 : US 3/ : 9,330 9,159 46,881 46,758 -0.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 20 quarters is 0.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.16 million head by more than 0.3 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.6 percent. Reliability of Quarterly Milk Production Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.2 0.3 131 58 3 192 4 16 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.3 0.6 51 25 1 53 3 17 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on the U.S. total for the past 20 quarters. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch..............................(202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section..............................(202) 690-2424 Jim Collom - Dairy Products................................(202) 690-3236 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices.........................(202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed...................(202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter....................(515) 284-4340 Everett Olbert - Sheep and Goats...........................(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows................(202) 720-3278 Nick Streff - Hogs and Pigs................................(202) 720-3106 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge. For free access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. 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