Da 1-1 (12-09) Milk Production Washington, D.C. Released December 18, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Mike Miller at 202-720-3278, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. November Milk Production down 1.0 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during November totaled 14.0 billion pounds, down 1.0 percent from November 2008. October revised production at 14.3 billion pounds, was down 1.2 percent from October 2008. The October revision represented a decrease of 12 million pounds or 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,679 pounds for November, 25 pounds above November 2008. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.31 million head, 209,000 head less than November 2008, and 6,000 head less than October 2009. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2008-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : From : : : : : : : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,286 9,295 5,127 5,096 47,610 47,363 -0.5 Apr-Jun : 9,315 9,260 5,236 5,278 48,774 48,874 0.2 Jul-Sep : 9,330 9,158 5,025 5,107 46,881 46,774 -0.2 Oct-Dec : 9,330 5,008 46,727 : Annual : 9,315 20,396 189,992 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2008-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : from : : : : : : : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,445 8,504 1,747 1,753 14,750 14,907 1.1 Feb : 8,457 8,486 1,656 1,606 14,007 13,627 -2.7 Mar : 8,467 8,481 1,794 1,794 15,191 15,211 0.1 Apr : 8,482 8,481 1,757 1,759 14,901 14,916 0.1 May : 8,496 8,473 1,819 1,833 15,451 15,529 0.5 Jun : 8,500 8,434 1,736 1,752 14,760 14,775 0.1 Jul : 8,515 8,400 1,744 1,767 14,848 14,845 Aug : 8,515 8,374 1,718 1,746 14,626 14,617 -0.1 Sep : 8,510 8,338 1,650 1,675 14,041 13,965 -0.5 Oct : 8,512 8,316 1,700 1,720 14,469 14,301 -1.2 Nov : 8,519 8,310 1,654 1,679 14,089 13,955 -1.0 Dec : 8,519 1,729 14,728 : Annual : 8,495 20,704 175,861 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2009 previous month revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2008-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : From : : : : : : : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,276 9,312 1,722 1,733 15,976 16,138 1.0 Feb : 9,287 9,289 1,634 1,589 15,176 14,756 -2.8 Mar : 9,295 9,283 1,771 1,774 16,458 16,469 0.1 Apr : 9,307 9,282 1,733 1,738 16,125 16,135 0.1 May : 9,318 9,270 1,793 1,811 16,707 16,785 0.5 Jun : 9,321 9,228 1,710 1,729 15,942 15,954 0.1 Jul : 9,335 9,190 1,713 1,740 15,995 15,989 Aug : 9,331 9,162 1,689 1,718 15,757 15,743 -0.1 Sep : 9,323 9,122 1,623 1,649 15,129 15,042 -0.6 Oct : 9,324 9,098 1,675 1,696 15,615 15,426 -1.2 Nov : 9,333 9,091 1,630 1,657 15,212 15,060 -1.0 Dec : 9,334 1,703 15,900 : Annual : 9,315 20,396 189,992 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2009 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, November 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : From : : : : : : : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 188 168 1,840 1,840 346 309 -10.7 CA : 1,845 1,765 1,795 1,775 3,312 3,133 -5.4 CO : 130 116 1,845 1,880 240 218 -9.2 FL : 119 113 1,320 1,300 157 147 -6.4 ID : 554 546 1,770 1,790 981 977 -0.4 IL : 102 101 1,470 1,510 150 153 2.0 IN : 167 169 1,580 1,620 264 274 3.8 IA : 215 215 1,630 1,670 350 359 2.6 KS : 121 112 1,695 1,740 205 195 -4.9 MI : 353 354 1,780 1,810 628 641 2.1 MN : 467 469 1,525 1,535 712 720 1.1 MO : 110 105 1,175 1,170 129 123 -4.7 NM : 334 315 1,900 1,985 635 625 -1.6 NY : 624 611 1,580 1,580 986 965 -2.1 OH : 277 276 1,460 1,500 404 414 2.5 OR : 115 114 1,555 1,560 179 178 -0.6 PA : 548 537 1,510 1,560 827 838 1.3 TX : 430 413 1,600 1,710 688 706 2.6 UT : 85 83 1,685 1,740 143 144 0.7 VT : 139 134 1,455 1,470 202 197 -2.5 VA : 97 95 1,410 1,440 137 137 WA : 245 241 1,840 1,870 451 451 WI : 1,254 1,258 1,565 1,630 1,963 2,051 4.5 : 23-State : Total : 8,519 8,310 1,654 1,679 14,089 13,955 -1.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, October 2008-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : From : : : : : : : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 186 166 1,835 1,840 341 305 -10.6 CA : 1,845 1,767 1,835 1,815 3,386 3,207 -5.3 CO : 130 116 1,890 1,930 246 224 -8.9 FL : 119 113 1,225 1,230 146 139 -4.8 ID : 554 546 1,870 1,870 1,036 1,021 -1.4 IL : 102 101 1,490 1,550 152 157 3.3 IN : 166 168 1,625 1,680 270 282 4.4 IA : 215 215 1,690 1,690 363 363 KS : 118 112 1,720 1,750 203 196 -3.4 MI : 353 355 1,845 1,860 651 660 1.4 MN : 466 469 1,555 1,580 725 741 2.2 MO : 110 105 1,180 1,170 130 123 -5.4 NM : 334 317 1,920 2,020 641 640 -0.2 NY : 625 614 1,620 1,630 1,013 1,001 -1.2 OH : 278 276 1,510 1,540 420 425 1.2 OR : 115 114 1,615 1,615 186 184 -1.1 PA : 549 539 1,570 1,600 862 862 TX : 428 413 1,625 1,720 696 710 2.0 UT : 85 83 1,765 1,780 150 148 -1.3 VT : 139 134 1,490 1,495 207 200 -3.4 VA : 97 95 1,435 1,475 139 140 0.7 WA : 245 240 1,920 1,940 470 466 -0.9 WI : 1,253 1,258 1,625 1,675 2,036 2,107 3.5 : 23-State : Total : 8,512 8,316 1,700 1,720 14,469 14,301 -1.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2009 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk cow inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.4 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 8.31 million head by more than 0.4 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.7 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Months : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------ Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.2 0.4 57 28 4 102 3 21 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.4 0.7 61 29 0 55 5 17 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on the 23 State total for the past 24 months. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch...........................................(202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section...........................................(202) 690-2424 Jim Collom - Dairy Products.............................................(202) 690-3236 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices......................................(202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed................................(202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter.................................(515) 284-4340 Everett Olbert - Sheep and Goats........................................(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows.............................(202) 720-3278 Nick Streff - Hogs and Pigs.............................................(202) 720-3106 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge. 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