Da 1-1 (3-10) Milk Production Washington, D.C. Released March 18, 2010, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Mike Miller at 202-720-3278, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. February Milk Production up 0.1 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during February totaled 13.6 billion pounds, up 0.1 percent from February 2009. January revised production at 14.8 billion pounds, was down 0.5 percent from January 2009. The January revision represented an increase of 14 million pounds or 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,640 pounds for February, 35 pounds above February 2009. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.32 million head, 168,000 head less than February 2009, but 3,000 head more than January 2010. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2009-2010 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : From : : : : : : : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head --- Pounds -- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,295 5,097 47,374 Apr-Jun : 9,262 5,278 48,888 Jul-Sep : 9,155 5,111 46,793 Oct-Dec : 9,090 5,090 46,265 : Annual : 9,201 20,576 189,320 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2009-2010 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : from : : : : : : : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,506 8,315 1,752 1,784 14,902 14,831 -0.5 Feb : 8,486 8,318 1,605 1,640 13,624 13,643 0.1 Mar : 8,482 1,795 15,222 Apr : 8,480 1,760 14,922 May : 8,475 1,834 15,541 Jun : 8,434 1,749 14,754 Jul : 8,397 1,771 14,867 Aug : 8,372 1,745 14,606 Sep : 8,335 1,675 13,957 Oct : 8,316 1,720 14,306 Nov : 8,314 1,681 13,979 Dec : 8,311 1,761 14,632 : Annual : 8,409 20,848 175,312 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2010 previous month revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2009-2010 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : From : : : : : : : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,312 9,085 1,733 1,767 16,135 16,054 -0.5 Feb : 9,289 9,088 1,588 1,625 14,754 14,768 0.1 Mar : 9,283 1,776 16,485 Apr : 9,282 1,740 16,148 May : 9,274 1,812 16,805 Jun : 9,230 1,726 15,935 Jul : 9,187 1,744 16,018 Aug : 9,159 1,718 15,737 Sep : 9,120 1,649 15,038 Oct : 9,096 1,695 15,420 Nov : 9,091 1,658 15,070 Dec : 9,082 1,737 15,775 : Annual : 9,201 20,576 189,320 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2010 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, February 2009-2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : From : : : : : : : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 189 170 1,865 1,930 352 328 -6.8 CA : 1,825 1,760 1,720 1,755 3,139 3,089 -1.6 CO : 128 116 1,780 1,800 228 209 -8.3 FL : 117 112 1,540 1,530 180 171 -5.0 ID : 549 552 1,640 1,690 900 933 3.7 IL : 102 101 1,510 1,530 154 155 0.6 IN : 167 169 1,560 1,560 261 264 1.1 IA : 215 213 1,550 1,575 333 335 0.6 KS : 124 116 1,655 1,645 205 191 -6.8 MI : 354 355 1,700 1,755 602 623 3.5 MN : 468 470 1,475 1,490 690 700 1.4 MO : 107 101 1,150 1,100 123 111 -9.8 NM : 333 318 1,880 1,870 626 595 -5.0 NY : 623 610 1,540 1,560 959 952 -0.7 OH : 277 272 1,430 1,500 396 408 3.0 OR : 114 114 1,520 1,570 173 179 3.5 PA : 551 541 1,490 1,520 821 822 0.1 TX : 430 410 1,650 1,640 710 672 -5.4 UT : 85 83 1,570 1,620 133 134 0.8 VT : 136 134 1,415 1,440 192 193 0.5 VA : 97 95 1,425 1,400 138 133 -3.6 WA : 240 246 1,750 1,825 420 449 6.9 WI : 1,255 1,260 1,505 1,585 1,889 1,997 5.7 : 23-State : Total : 8,486 8,318 1,605 1,640 13,624 13,643 0.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, January 2009-2010 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : From : : : : : : : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 189 169 1,985 2,055 375 347 -7.5 CA : 1,832 1,760 1,885 1,915 3,453 3,370 -2.4 CO : 129 116 1,940 1,930 250 224 -10.4 FL : 118 112 1,660 1,615 196 181 -7.7 ID : 554 551 1,810 1,860 1,003 1,025 2.2 IL : 102 101 1,610 1,615 164 163 -0.6 IN : 167 169 1,695 1,680 283 284 0.4 IA : 215 214 1,700 1,735 366 371 1.4 KS : 125 116 1,800 1,785 225 207 -8.0 MI : 354 353 1,865 1,915 660 676 2.4 MN : 468 470 1,620 1,645 758 773 2.0 MO : 108 102 1,270 1,220 137 124 -9.5 NM : 334 318 2,015 2,015 673 641 -4.8 NY : 624 610 1,670 1,700 1,042 1,037 -0.5 OH : 277 272 1,550 1,600 429 435 1.4 OR : 115 114 1,650 1,685 190 192 1.1 PA : 550 541 1,630 1,630 897 882 -1.7 TX : 430 410 1,780 1,805 765 740 -3.3 UT : 85 82 1,720 1,795 146 147 0.7 VT : 137 134 1,545 1,580 212 212 VA : 97 95 1,545 1,535 150 146 -2.7 WA : 241 246 1,925 1,980 464 487 5.0 WI : 1,255 1,260 1,645 1,720 2,064 2,167 5.0 : 23-State : Total : 8,506 8,315 1,752 1,784 14,902 14,831 -0.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2010 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk cow inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.4 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 8.32 million head by more than 0.4 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.7 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Months : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------ Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.2 0.3 47 24 4 58 2 22 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.4 0.7 54 23 0 55 6 14 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on the 23 State total for the past 24 months. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch (202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section (202) 690-2424 Jim Collom - Dairy Products (202) 690-3236 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices (202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed (202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter (515) 284-4340 Everett Olbert - Sheep and Goats (202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows (202) 720-3278 Nick Streff - Hogs and Pigs (202) 720-3106 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge. For free access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. 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