Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released June 18, 2010, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Special Note NASS is in the process of modifying report layouts in order to improve readability. This is the first issue produced using the new layout. This report issue is published using both layouts but future issues will only be produced using this layout. The previous layout is available on the NASS website: http://www.nass.usda.gov. May Milk Production up 1.3 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during May totaled 15.7 billion pounds, up 1.3 percent from May 2009. April revised production at 15.2 billion pounds, was up 1.8 percent from April 2009. The April revision represented an increase of 14 million pounds or 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,889 pounds for May, 55 pounds above May 2009. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.33 million head, 143,000 head less than May 2009, but 4,000 head more than April 2010. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2009-2010 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : from : : : : : : : 2009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 head -- ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,295 9,090 5,097 5,208 47,374 47,340 -0.1 April-June ......: 9,262 5,278 48,888 July-September ..: 9,155 5,111 46,793 October-December : 9,090 5,090 46,265 : Annual ..........: 9,201 20,576 189,320 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production by Month - 23 Selected States: 2009-2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : from : : : : : : : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January ..: 8,506 8,315 1,752 1,784 14,902 14,831 -0.5 February .: 8,486 8,319 1,605 1,642 13,624 13,660 0.3 March ....: 8,482 8,322 1,795 1,846 15,222 15,364 0.9 April ....: 8,480 8,328 1,760 1,824 14,922 15,192 1.8 May ......: 8,475 8,332 1,834 1,889 15,541 15,741 1.3 June .....: 8,434 1,749 14,754 July .....: 8,397 1,771 14,867 August ...: 8,372 1,745 14,606 September : 8,335 1,675 13,957 October ..: 8,316 1,720 14,306 November .: 8,314 1,681 13,979 December .: 8,311 1,761 14,632 : Annual ...: 8,409 20,848 175,312 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production by Month - United States: 2009-2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : from : : : : : : : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January ..: 9,312 9,086 1,733 1,762 16,135 16,010 -0.8 February .: 9,289 9,090 1,588 1,622 14,754 14,745 -0.1 March ....: 9,283 9,093 1,776 1,824 16,485 16,585 0.6 April ....: 9,282 9,099 1,740 1,802 16,148 16,399 1.6 May ......: 9,274 9,103 1,812 1,866 16,805 16,982 1.1 June .....: 9,230 1,726 15,935 July .....: 9,187 1,744 16,018 August ...: 9,159 1,718 15,737 September : 9,120 1,649 15,038 October ..: 9,096 1,695 15,420 November .: 9,091 1,658 15,070 December .: 9,082 1,737 15,775 : Annual ...: 9,201 20,576 189,320 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: May 2009 and 2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : from : : : : : : : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds --- million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 184 172 2,055 2,170 378 373 -1.3 California ....: 1,815 1,750 1,935 2,010 3,512 3,518 0.2 Colorado ......: 128 117 2,000 2,050 256 240 -6.3 Florida .......: 117 114 1,700 1,700 199 194 -2.5 Idaho .........: 553 557 1,910 1,930 1,056 1,075 1.8 Illinois ......: 102 101 1,670 1,720 170 174 2.4 Indiana .......: 168 169 1,785 1,815 300 307 2.3 Iowa ..........: 215 212 1,785 1,820 384 386 0.5 Kansas ........: 121 116 1,835 1,860 222 216 -2.7 Michigan ......: 357 358 1,955 2,035 698 729 4.4 : Minnesota .....: 469 470 1,680 1,740 788 818 3.8 Missouri ......: 110 101 1,330 1,340 146 135 -7.5 New Mexico ....: 332 324 2,145 2,160 712 700 -1.7 New York ......: 623 610 1,820 1,850 1,134 1,129 -0.4 Ohio ..........: 278 268 1,670 1,730 464 464 Oregon ........: 114 115 1,735 1,765 198 203 2.5 Pennsylvania ..: 547 541 1,710 1,750 935 947 1.3 Texas .........: 430 410 1,835 1,880 789 771 -2.3 Utah ..........: 84 84 1,805 1,850 152 155 2.0 Vermont .......: 136 137 1,595 1,625 217 223 2.8 : Virginia ......: 96 95 1,615 1,640 155 156 0.6 Washington ....: 240 250 2,015 2,030 484 508 5.0 Wisconsin .....: 1,256 1,261 1,745 1,840 2,192 2,320 5.8 : 23-State Total : 8,475 8,332 1,834 1,889 15,541 15,741 1.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: April 2009 and 2010 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : from : : : : : : : 2009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 head -- ---- pounds --- million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 188 170 2,055 2,160 386 367 -4.9 California ....: 1,821 1,751 1,885 1,960 3,433 3,432 Colorado ......: 128 117 1,920 1,975 246 231 -6.1 Florida .......: 117 114 1,710 1,760 200 201 0.5 Idaho .........: 551 557 1,800 1,850 992 1,030 3.8 Illinois ......: 102 101 1,625 1,670 166 169 1.8 Indiana .......: 167 169 1,710 1,745 286 295 3.1 Iowa ..........: 215 212 1,710 1,750 368 371 0.8 Kansas ........: 120 116 1,775 1,805 213 209 -1.9 Michigan ......: 356 357 1,865 1,955 664 698 5.1 : Minnesota .....: 468 470 1,605 1,650 751 776 3.3 Missouri ......: 110 101 1,320 1,325 145 134 -7.6 New Mexico ....: 332 323 2,070 2,090 687 675 -1.7 New York ......: 623 610 1,670 1,755 1,040 1,071 3.0 Ohio ..........: 277 268 1,590 1,650 440 442 0.5 Oregon ........: 114 115 1,675 1,720 191 198 3.7 Pennsylvania ..: 549 541 1,640 1,710 900 925 2.8 Texas .........: 430 410 1,810 1,855 778 761 -2.2 Utah ..........: 85 84 1,720 1,780 146 150 2.7 Vermont .......: 136 137 1,520 1,565 207 214 3.4 : Virginia ......: 96 95 1,585 1,590 152 151 -0.7 Washington ....: 239 249 1,920 1,975 459 492 7.2 Wisconsin .....: 1,256 1,261 1,650 1,745 2,072 2,200 6.2 : 23-State Total : 8,480 8,328 1,760 1,824 14,922 15,192 1.8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five- year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk cow inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 8.33 million head by more than 0.3 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.6 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on the 23 State total for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference between : Months : Root : 90 percent : first and latest :----------------- : mean : confidence : estimates : First : First Item : square : level :-----------------------------: above : below : error : : Average :Smallest : Largest : latest : latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent -------- million pounds -------- number : : Milk production ......: 0.2 0.3 49 22 4 58 2 22 : percent ---------- 1,000 head ---------- number : : All milk cows ........: 0.3 0.6 49 18 0 55 6 14 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Jim Collom - Dairy Products .................. (202) 690-3236 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices ........... (202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ..... (202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (515) 284-4340 Everett Olbert - Sheep and Goats ............. (202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Nick Streff - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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