Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released August 18, 2010, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). July Milk Production up 3.0 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during July totaled 15.3 billion pounds, up 3.0 percent from July 2009. June revised production at 15.2 billion pounds, was up 2.9 percent from June 2009. The June revision represented an increase of 23 million pounds or 0.2 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,830 pounds for July, 59 pounds above July 2009. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.37 million head, 26,000 head less than July 2009, but 19,000 head more than June 2010. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2009-2010 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : from : : : : : : : 2009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 head -- ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,295 9,091 5,097 5,209 47,374 47,352 April-June ......: 9,262 9,112 5,278 5,460 48,888 49,747 1.8 July-September ..: 9,155 5,111 46,793 October-December : 9,090 5,090 46,265 : Annual ..........: 9,201 20,576 189,320 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production by Month - 23 Selected States: 2009-2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : from : : : : : : : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January ..: 8,506 8,315 1,752 1,784 14,902 14,831 -0.5 February .: 8,486 8,319 1,605 1,642 13,624 13,660 0.3 March ....: 8,482 8,322 1,795 1,846 15,222 15,364 0.9 April ....: 8,480 8,328 1,760 1,824 14,922 15,192 1.8 May ......: 8,475 8,337 1,834 1,893 15,541 15,781 1.5 June .....: 8,434 8,352 1,749 1,817 14,754 15,177 2.9 July .....: 8,397 8,371 1,771 1,830 14,867 15,316 3.0 August ...: 8,372 1,745 14,606 September : 8,335 1,675 13,957 October ..: 8,316 1,720 14,306 November .: 8,314 1,681 13,979 December .: 8,311 1,761 14,632 : Annual ...: 8,409 20,848 175,312 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production by Month - United States: 2009-2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : from : : : : : : : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January ..: 9,312 9,087 1,733 1,763 16,135 16,016 -0.7 February .: 9,289 9,091 1,588 1,622 14,754 14,749 March ....: 9,283 9,094 1,776 1,824 16,485 16,587 0.6 April ....: 9,282 9,101 1,740 1,801 16,148 16,389 1.5 May ......: 9,274 9,111 1,812 1,867 16,805 17,011 1.2 June .....: 9,230 9,125 1,726 1,791 15,935 16,347 2.6 July .....: 9,187 9,145 1,744 1,802 16,018 16,480 2.9 August ...: 9,159 1,718 15,737 September : 9,120 1,649 15,038 October ..: 9,096 1,695 15,420 November .: 9,091 1,658 15,070 December .: 9,082 1,737 15,775 : Annual ...: 9,201 20,576 189,320 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: July 2009 and 2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : from : : : : : : : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds --- million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 171 179 1,800 1,870 308 335 8.8 California ....: 1,790 1,749 1,815 1,945 3,249 3,402 4.7 Colorado ......: 124 119 1,970 2,050 244 244 Florida .......: 115 115 1,450 1,500 167 173 3.6 Idaho .........: 550 567 1,930 1,970 1,062 1,117 5.2 Illinois ......: 102 101 1,580 1,575 161 159 -1.2 Indiana .......: 168 169 1,725 1,750 290 296 2.1 Iowa ..........: 215 211 1,740 1,785 374 377 0.8 Kansas ........: 117 119 1,735 1,750 203 208 2.5 Michigan ......: 356 359 1,945 1,980 692 711 2.7 : Minnesota .....: 469 470 1,670 1,690 783 794 1.4 Missouri ......: 108 100 1,195 1,190 129 119 -7.8 New Mexico ....: 321 324 2,050 2,095 658 679 3.2 New York ......: 621 611 1,735 1,800 1,077 1,100 2.1 Ohio ..........: 278 270 1,630 1,690 453 456 0.7 Oregon ........: 114 120 1,695 1,745 193 209 8.3 Pennsylvania ..: 545 541 1,640 1,680 894 909 1.7 Texas .........: 423 415 1,700 1,775 719 737 2.5 Utah ..........: 83 85 1,840 1,850 153 157 2.6 Vermont .......: 135 137 1,570 1,540 212 211 -0.5 : Virginia ......: 96 95 1,510 1,515 145 144 -0.7 Washington ....: 239 252 2,015 2,030 482 512 6.2 Wisconsin .....: 1,257 1,263 1,765 1,795 2,219 2,267 2.2 : 23-State Total : 8,397 8,371 1,771 1,830 14,867 15,316 3.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: June 2009 and 2010 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : from : : : : : : : 2009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 head -- ---- pounds --- million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 176 176 1,940 2,025 341 356 4.4 California ....: 1,804 1,750 1,820 1,940 3,283 3,395 3.4 Colorado ......: 126 118 1,940 2,010 244 237 -2.9 Florida .......: 116 115 1,535 1,600 178 184 3.4 Idaho .........: 549 562 1,880 1,910 1,032 1,073 4.0 Illinois ......: 102 101 1,570 1,615 160 163 1.9 Indiana .......: 168 170 1,685 1,735 283 295 4.2 Iowa ..........: 215 212 1,710 1,760 368 373 1.4 Kansas ........: 118 118 1,735 1,755 205 207 1.0 Michigan ......: 357 359 1,890 1,970 675 707 4.7 : Minnesota .....: 469 470 1,630 1,670 764 785 2.7 Missouri ......: 109 100 1,195 1,230 130 123 -5.4 New Mexico ....: 327 325 2,050 2,080 670 676 0.9 New York ......: 623 610 1,700 1,770 1,059 1,080 2.0 Ohio ..........: 278 270 1,590 1,660 442 448 1.4 Oregon ........: 114 116 1,675 1,715 191 199 4.2 Pennsylvania ..: 545 541 1,630 1,660 888 898 1.1 Texas .........: 428 410 1,710 1,775 732 728 -0.5 Utah ..........: 83 85 1,785 1,810 148 154 4.1 Vermont .......: 135 137 1,550 1,555 209 213 1.9 : Virginia ......: 96 95 1,500 1,515 144 144 Washington ....: 239 250 1,970 1,970 471 493 4.7 Wisconsin .....: 1,257 1,262 1,700 1,780 2,137 2,246 5.1 : 23-State Total : 8,434 8,352 1,749 1,817 14,754 15,177 2.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five- year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk cow inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 8.37 million head by more than 0.3 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.5 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Years : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : : Milk production ..............: 0.2 0.3 22 4 58 22 2 : All milk cows ................: 0.3 0.5 15 0 55 14 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Jim Collom - Dairy Products .................. (202) 690-3236 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices ........... (202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ..... (202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (515) 284-4340 Everett Olbert - Sheep and Goats ............. (202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Nick Streff - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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