Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released November 18, 2010, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). October Milk Production up 3.3 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during October totaled 14.8 billion pounds, up 3.3 percent from October 2009. September revised production at 14.5 billion pounds, was up 3.7 percent from September 2009. The September revision represented an increase of 6 million pounds or less than 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,767 pounds for October, 47 pounds above October 2009. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.37 million head, 52,000 head more than October 2009, but unchanged from September 2010. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2009-2010 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : from : : : : : : : 2009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 head -- ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,295 9,091 5,097 5,209 47,374 47,352 April-June ......: 9,262 9,111 5,278 5,461 48,888 49,753 1.8 July-September ..: 9,155 9,123 5,111 5,270 46,793 48,077 2.7 October-December : 9,090 5,090 46,265 : Annual ..........: 9,201 20,576 189,320 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production by Month - 23 Selected States: 2009-2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : from : : : : : : : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January ..: 8,506 8,315 1,752 1,784 14,902 14,831 -0.5 February .: 8,486 8,319 1,605 1,642 13,624 13,660 0.3 March ....: 8,482 8,322 1,795 1,846 15,222 15,364 0.9 April ....: 8,480 8,328 1,760 1,824 14,922 15,192 1.8 May ......: 8,475 8,337 1,834 1,893 15,541 15,781 1.5 June .....: 8,434 8,352 1,749 1,817 14,754 15,177 2.9 July .....: 8,397 8,370 1,771 1,830 14,867 15,316 3.0 August ...: 8,372 8,362 1,745 1,794 14,606 15,001 2.7 September : 8,335 8,368 1,675 1,729 13,957 14,472 3.7 October ..: 8,316 8,368 1,720 1,767 14,306 14,784 3.3 November .: 8,314 1,681 13,979 December .: 8,311 1,761 14,632 : Annual ...: 8,409 20,848 175,312 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production by Month - United States: 2009-2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : from : : : : : : : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January ..: 9,312 9,087 1,733 1,763 16,135 16,016 -0.7 February .: 9,289 9,091 1,588 1,622 14,754 14,749 March ....: 9,283 9,094 1,776 1,824 16,485 16,587 0.6 April ....: 9,282 9,100 1,740 1,802 16,148 16,394 1.5 May ......: 9,274 9,109 1,812 1,868 16,805 17,015 1.2 June .....: 9,230 9,124 1,726 1,791 15,935 16,344 2.6 July .....: 9,187 9,134 1,744 1,800 16,018 16,441 2.6 August ...: 9,159 9,118 1,718 1,766 15,737 16,102 2.3 September : 9,120 9,118 1,649 1,704 15,038 15,534 3.3 October ..: 9,096 9,118 1,695 1,740 15,420 15,868 2.9 November .: 9,091 1,658 15,070 December .: 9,082 1,737 15,775 : Annual ...: 9,201 20,576 189,320 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: October 2009 and 2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : from : : : : : : : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds --- million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 166 183 1,840 1,825 305 334 9.5 California ....: 1,767 1,747 1,815 1,915 3,207 3,346 4.3 Colorado ......: 116 122 1,920 1,975 223 241 8.1 Florida .......: 113 113 1,230 1,280 139 145 4.3 Idaho .........: 546 571 1,870 1,910 1,021 1,091 6.9 Illinois ......: 101 98 1,550 1,560 157 153 -2.5 Indiana .......: 168 169 1,680 1,710 282 289 2.5 Iowa ..........: 215 204 1,690 1,725 363 352 -3.0 Kansas ........: 112 121 1,750 1,750 196 212 8.2 Michigan ......: 355 360 1,860 1,895 660 682 3.3 : Minnesota .....: 469 470 1,580 1,575 741 740 -0.1 Missouri ......: 105 97 1,170 1,180 123 114 -7.3 New Mexico ....: 317 318 2,020 2,055 640 653 2.0 New York ......: 614 611 1,640 1,725 1,007 1,054 4.7 Ohio ..........: 276 270 1,540 1,580 425 427 0.5 Oregon ........: 114 121 1,615 1,695 184 205 11.4 Pennsylvania ..: 539 541 1,600 1,640 862 887 2.9 Texas .........: 413 415 1,720 1,775 710 737 3.8 Utah ..........: 83 85 1,780 1,790 148 152 2.7 Vermont .......: 134 139 1,495 1,480 200 206 3.0 : Virginia ......: 95 95 1,475 1,485 140 141 0.7 Washington ....: 240 254 1,940 1,965 466 499 7.1 Wisconsin .....: 1,258 1,264 1,675 1,680 2,107 2,124 0.8 : 23-State Total : 8,316 8,368 1,720 1,767 14,306 14,784 3.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: September 2009 and 2010 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : from : : : : : : : 2009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 head -- ---- pounds --- million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 167 182 1,690 1,750 282 319 13.1 California ....: 1,769 1,747 1,735 1,885 3,069 3,293 7.3 Colorado ......: 117 122 1,880 1,945 220 237 7.7 Florida .......: 114 113 1,180 1,245 135 141 4.4 Idaho .........: 546 571 1,850 1,900 1,010 1,085 7.4 Illinois ......: 102 99 1,480 1,485 151 147 -2.6 Indiana .......: 168 169 1,620 1,645 272 278 2.2 Iowa ..........: 215 205 1,630 1,670 350 342 -2.3 Kansas ........: 114 121 1,675 1,685 191 204 6.8 Michigan ......: 355 359 1,835 1,860 651 668 2.6 : Minnesota .....: 469 470 1,545 1,530 725 719 -0.8 Missouri ......: 105 98 1,110 1,125 117 110 -6.0 New Mexico ....: 318 318 1,980 2,015 630 641 1.7 New York ......: 617 611 1,620 1,695 1,000 1,036 3.6 Ohio ..........: 278 270 1,500 1,550 417 419 0.5 Oregon ........: 114 120 1,595 1,660 182 199 9.3 Pennsylvania ..: 542 542 1,560 1,600 846 867 2.5 Texas .........: 416 415 1,660 1,695 691 703 1.7 Utah ..........: 83 85 1,760 1,770 146 150 2.7 Vermont .......: 134 139 1,485 1,455 199 202 1.5 : Virginia ......: 96 95 1,405 1,430 135 136 0.7 Washington ....: 238 253 1,915 1,935 456 490 7.5 Wisconsin .....: 1,258 1,264 1,655 1,650 2,082 2,086 0.2 : 23-State Total : 8,335 8,368 1,675 1,729 13,957 14,472 3.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five- year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk cow inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 8.37 million head by more than 0.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.4 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : : Milk production ..............: 0.2 0.3 20 0 58 20 3 : All milk cows ................: 0.2 0.4 8 0 54 12 7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Lorie Warren - Dairy Products ................ (202) 690-3236 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices ........... (202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ..... (202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (515) 284-4340 Everett Olbert - Sheep and Goats ............. (202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Nick Streff - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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