Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released December 17, 2010, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). November Milk Production up 3.1 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during November totaled 14.4 billion pounds, up 3.1 percent from November 2009. October production, unrevised at 14.8 billion pounds, was up 3.3 percent from October 2009. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,722 pounds for November, 41 pounds above November 2009. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.37 million head, 57,000 head more than November 2009, but unchanged from October 2010. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2009-2010 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : from : : : : : : : 2009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 head -- ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,295 9,091 5,097 5,209 47,374 47,352 April-June ......: 9,262 9,111 5,278 5,461 48,888 49,753 1.8 July-September ..: 9,155 9,123 5,111 5,270 46,793 48,077 2.7 October-December : 9,090 5,090 46,265 : Annual ..........: 9,201 20,576 189,320 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production by Month - 23 Selected States: 2009-2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : from : : : : : : : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January ..: 8,506 8,315 1,752 1,784 14,902 14,831 -0.5 February .: 8,486 8,319 1,605 1,642 13,624 13,660 0.3 March ....: 8,482 8,322 1,795 1,846 15,222 15,364 0.9 April ....: 8,480 8,328 1,760 1,824 14,922 15,192 1.8 May ......: 8,475 8,337 1,834 1,893 15,541 15,781 1.5 June .....: 8,434 8,352 1,749 1,817 14,754 15,177 2.9 July .....: 8,397 8,370 1,771 1,830 14,867 15,316 3.0 August ...: 8,372 8,362 1,745 1,794 14,606 15,001 2.7 September : 8,335 8,368 1,675 1,729 13,957 14,472 3.7 October ..: 8,316 8,371 1,720 1,766 14,306 14,784 3.3 November .: 8,314 8,371 1,681 1,722 13,979 14,411 3.1 December .: 8,311 1,761 14,632 : Annual ...: 8,409 20,848 175,312 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production by Month - United States: 2009-2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : from : : : : : : : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January ..: 9,312 9,087 1,733 1,763 16,135 16,016 -0.7 February .: 9,289 9,091 1,588 1,622 14,754 14,749 March ....: 9,283 9,094 1,776 1,824 16,485 16,587 0.6 April ....: 9,282 9,100 1,740 1,802 16,148 16,394 1.5 May ......: 9,274 9,109 1,812 1,868 16,805 17,015 1.2 June .....: 9,230 9,124 1,726 1,791 15,935 16,344 2.6 July .....: 9,187 9,134 1,744 1,800 16,018 16,441 2.6 August ...: 9,159 9,118 1,718 1,766 15,737 16,102 2.3 September : 9,120 9,118 1,649 1,704 15,038 15,534 3.3 October ..: 9,096 9,121 1,695 1,740 15,420 15,868 2.9 November .: 9,091 9,121 1,658 1,696 15,070 15,470 2.7 December .: 9,082 1,737 15,775 : Annual ...: 9,201 20,576 189,320 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: November 2009 and 2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : from : : : : : : : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds --- million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 168 182 1,840 1,845 309 336 8.7 California ....: 1,765 1,750 1,775 1,870 3,133 3,273 4.5 Colorado ......: 116 122 1,860 1,905 216 232 7.4 Florida .......: 113 113 1,360 1,370 154 155 0.6 Idaho .........: 548 572 1,790 1,840 981 1,052 7.2 Illinois ......: 101 98 1,510 1,550 153 152 -0.7 Indiana .......: 169 169 1,610 1,640 272 277 1.8 Iowa ..........: 215 204 1,670 1,700 359 347 -3.3 Kansas ........: 113 121 1,725 1,730 195 209 7.2 Michigan ......: 354 360 1,805 1,830 639 659 3.1 : Minnesota .....: 469 470 1,545 1,520 725 714 -1.5 Missouri ......: 105 96 1,170 1,180 123 113 -8.1 New Mexico ....: 317 319 1,970 1,995 624 636 1.9 New York ......: 611 611 1,605 1,680 981 1,026 4.6 Ohio ..........: 274 270 1,510 1,560 414 421 1.7 Oregon ........: 114 121 1,560 1,595 178 193 8.4 Pennsylvania ..: 538 541 1,560 1,600 839 866 3.2 Texas .........: 413 415 1,710 1,750 706 726 2.8 Utah ..........: 83 85 1,740 1,720 144 146 1.4 Vermont .......: 134 138 1,460 1,470 196 203 3.6 : Virginia ......: 95 95 1,455 1,440 138 137 -0.7 Washington ....: 241 254 1,865 1,875 449 476 6.0 Wisconsin .....: 1,258 1,265 1,630 1,630 2,051 2,062 0.5 : 23-State Total : 8,314 8,371 1,681 1,722 13,979 14,411 3.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: October 2009 and 2010 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : from : : : : : : : 2009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 head -- ---- pounds --- million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 166 183 1,840 1,825 305 334 9.5 California ....: 1,767 1,749 1,815 1,910 3,207 3,341 4.2 Colorado ......: 116 122 1,920 1,975 223 241 8.1 Florida .......: 113 114 1,230 1,325 139 151 8.6 Idaho .........: 546 572 1,870 1,930 1,021 1,104 8.1 Illinois ......: 101 98 1,550 1,560 157 153 -2.5 Indiana .......: 168 169 1,680 1,690 282 286 1.4 Iowa ..........: 215 204 1,690 1,725 363 352 -3.0 Kansas ........: 112 121 1,750 1,750 196 212 8.2 Michigan ......: 355 360 1,860 1,895 660 682 3.3 : Minnesota .....: 469 470 1,580 1,555 741 731 -1.3 Missouri ......: 105 97 1,170 1,180 123 114 -7.3 New Mexico ....: 317 318 2,020 2,055 640 653 2.0 New York ......: 614 611 1,640 1,725 1,007 1,054 4.7 Ohio ..........: 276 270 1,540 1,600 425 432 1.6 Oregon ........: 114 121 1,615 1,680 184 203 10.3 Pennsylvania ..: 539 541 1,600 1,640 862 887 2.9 Texas .........: 413 415 1,720 1,775 710 737 3.8 Utah ..........: 83 85 1,780 1,790 148 152 2.7 Vermont .......: 134 138 1,495 1,500 200 207 3.5 : Virginia ......: 95 95 1,475 1,465 140 139 -0.7 Washington ....: 240 254 1,940 1,950 466 495 6.2 Wisconsin .....: 1,258 1,264 1,675 1,680 2,107 2,124 0.8 : 23-State Total : 8,316 8,371 1,720 1,766 14,306 14,784 3.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five- year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk cow inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 8.37 million head by more than 0.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.3 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : : Milk production ..............: 0.2 0.3 19 0 58 19 3 : All milk cows ................: 0.2 0.3 6 0 53 12 7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (515) 284-4340 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices ........... (202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ..... (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Everett Olbert - Sheep and Goats ............. (202) 720-4751 Nick Streff - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 Lorie Warren - Dairy Products ................ (202) 690-3236 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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