Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released March 18, 2011, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). February Milk Production up 2.4 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during February totaled 14.0 billion pounds, up 2.4 percent from February 2010. January revised production at 15.2 billion pounds, was up 2.5 percent from January 2010. The January revision represented a decrease of 21 million pounds or 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,666 pounds for February, 24 pounds above February 2010. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.40 million head, 81,000 head more than February 2010, but no change from January 2011. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2010-2011 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : from : : : : : : : 2010 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head --- pounds --- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,093 5,212 47,392 April-June ......: 9,119 5,462 49,809 July-September ..: 9,126 5,267 48,070 October-December : 9,130 5,208 47,548 : Annual ..........: 9,117 21,149 192,819 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production by Month - 23 Selected States: 2010-2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : from : : : : : : : 2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January ..: 8,319 8,404 1,784 1,810 14,839 15,213 2.5 February .: 8,323 8,404 1,642 1,666 13,670 14,001 2.4 March ....: 8,329 1,848 15,389 April ....: 8,337 1,825 15,213 May ......: 8,347 1,893 15,804 June .....: 8,356 1,817 15,186 July .....: 8,375 1,829 15,316 August ...: 8,369 1,792 14,998 September : 8,371 1,730 14,481 October ..: 8,372 1,767 14,796 November .: 8,373 1,722 14,421 December .: 8,387 1,791 15,025 : Annual ...: 8,355 21,440 179,138 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production by Month - United States: 2010-2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : from : : : : : : : 2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January ..: 9,089 9,160 1,763 1,786 16,020 16,360 2.1 February .: 9,092 9,160 1,623 1,644 14,758 15,055 2.0 March ....: 9,099 1,826 16,614 April ....: 9,108 1,802 16,416 May ......: 9,119 1,869 17,040 June .....: 9,129 1,791 16,353 July .....: 9,135 1,799 16,436 August ...: 9,123 1,764 16,094 September : 9,121 1,704 15,540 October ..: 9,123 1,743 15,900 November .: 9,125 1,698 15,498 December .: 9,141 1,767 16,150 : Annual ...: 9,117 21,149 192,819 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: February 2010 and 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : from : : : : : : : 2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds --- million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 170 185 1,940 1,915 330 354 7.3 California ....: 1,760 1,752 1,755 1,805 3,089 3,162 2.4 Colorado ......: 116 123 1,800 1,795 209 221 5.7 Florida .......: 113 118 1,595 1,715 180 202 12.2 Idaho .........: 554 573 1,690 1,690 936 968 3.4 Illinois ......: 101 98 1,530 1,530 155 150 -3.2 Indiana .......: 169 171 1,560 1,575 264 269 1.9 Iowa ..........: 213 208 1,575 1,630 335 339 1.2 Kansas ........: 116 123 1,620 1,630 188 200 6.4 Michigan ......: 355 362 1,765 1,780 627 644 2.7 : Minnesota .....: 470 471 1,510 1,495 710 704 -0.8 Missouri ......: 101 95 1,100 1,140 111 108 -2.7 New Mexico ....: 318 324 1,870 1,890 595 612 2.9 New York ......: 610 610 1,560 1,620 952 988 3.8 Ohio ..........: 272 270 1,490 1,500 405 405 Oregon ........: 115 119 1,565 1,570 180 187 3.9 Pennsylvania ..: 541 543 1,520 1,510 822 820 -0.2 Texas .........: 410 425 1,640 1,720 672 731 8.8 Utah ..........: 84 86 1,640 1,590 138 137 -0.7 Vermont .......: 134 135 1,440 1,465 193 198 2.6 : Virginia ......: 95 95 1,400 1,430 133 136 2.3 Washington ....: 246 252 1,825 1,820 449 459 2.2 Wisconsin .....: 1,260 1,266 1,585 1,585 1,997 2,007 0.5 : 23-State Total : 8,323 8,404 1,642 1,666 13,670 14,001 2.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: January 2010 and 2011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : from : : : : : : : 2010 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 head -- ---- pounds --- million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 169 185 2,055 2,015 347 373 7.5 California ....: 1,760 1,752 1,915 1,935 3,370 3,390 0.6 Colorado ......: 116 123 1,930 1,975 224 243 8.5 Florida .......: 112 116 1,615 1,775 181 206 13.8 Idaho .........: 551 573 1,860 1,860 1,025 1,066 4.0 Illinois ......: 101 98 1,615 1,660 163 163 Indiana .......: 169 172 1,680 1,705 284 293 3.2 Iowa ..........: 214 210 1,735 1,775 371 373 0.5 Kansas ........: 116 123 1,765 1,790 205 220 7.3 Michigan ......: 354 362 1,920 1,945 680 704 3.5 : Minnesota .....: 470 470 1,645 1,630 773 766 -0.9 Missouri ......: 102 95 1,220 1,240 124 118 -4.8 New Mexico ....: 318 323 2,015 2,105 641 680 6.1 New York ......: 610 610 1,700 1,775 1,037 1,083 4.4 Ohio ..........: 272 270 1,600 1,620 435 437 0.5 Oregon ........: 115 120 1,690 1,685 194 202 4.1 Pennsylvania ..: 541 543 1,630 1,640 882 891 1.0 Texas .........: 410 425 1,805 1,875 740 797 7.7 Utah ..........: 84 87 1,795 1,740 151 151 Vermont .......: 134 135 1,580 1,605 212 217 2.4 : Virginia ......: 95 95 1,535 1,545 146 147 0.7 Washington ....: 246 252 1,980 1,975 487 498 2.3 Wisconsin .....: 1,260 1,265 1,720 1,735 2,167 2,195 1.3 : 23-State Total : 8,319 8,404 1,784 1,810 14,839 15,213 2.5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five- year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk cow inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 8.40 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.1 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : : Milk production ..............: 0.2 0.3 23 0 63 18 5 : All milk cows ................: 0.1 0.1 5 0 15 16 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (515) 284-4340 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 Vacant - Dairy Products Prices ............... (202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ..... (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Everett Olbert - Sheep and Goats ............. (202) 720-4751 Lorie Warren - Dairy Products ................ (202) 690-3236 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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