Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released June 17, 2011, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). May Milk Production up 1.5 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during May totaled 16.0 billion pounds, up 1.5 percent from May 2010. April revised production at 15.5 billion pounds, was up 1.7 percent from April 2010. The April revision represented an increase of 3 million pounds or less than 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,899 pounds for May, 6 pounds above May 2010. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.45 million head, 103,000 head more than May 2010, and 15,000 head more than April 2011. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2010-2011 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : from : : : : : : : 2010 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 head -- ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,093 9,164 5,212 5,284 47,392 48,426 2.2 April-June ......: 9,119 5,462 49,809 July-September ..: 9,126 5,267 48,070 October-December : 9,130 5,208 47,548 : Annual ..........: 9,117 21,149 192,819 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production by Month - 23 Selected States: 2010-2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : from : : : : : : : 2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January ..: 8,319 8,404 1,784 1,810 14,839 15,213 2.5 February .: 8,323 8,405 1,642 1,664 13,670 13,987 2.3 March ....: 8,329 8,426 1,848 1,870 15,389 15,757 2.4 April ....: 8,337 8,435 1,825 1,834 15,213 15,471 1.7 May ......: 8,347 8,450 1,893 1,899 15,804 16,043 1.5 June .....: 8,356 1,817 15,186 July .....: 8,375 1,829 15,316 August ...: 8,369 1,792 14,998 September : 8,371 1,730 14,481 October ..: 8,372 1,767 14,796 November .: 8,373 1,722 14,421 December .: 8,387 1,791 15,025 : Annual ...: 8,355 21,440 179,138 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production by Month - United States: 2010-2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : from : : : : : : : 2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January ..: 9,089 9,157 1,763 1,790 16,020 16,387 2.3 February .: 9,092 9,158 1,623 1,645 14,758 15,066 2.1 March ....: 9,099 9,178 1,826 1,849 16,614 16,973 2.2 April ....: 9,108 9,187 1,802 1,814 16,416 16,665 1.5 May ......: 9,119 9,200 1,869 1,877 17,040 17,270 1.3 June .....: 9,129 1,791 16,353 July .....: 9,135 1,799 16,436 August ...: 9,123 1,764 16,094 September : 9,121 1,704 15,540 October ..: 9,123 1,743 15,900 November .: 9,125 1,698 15,498 December .: 9,141 1,767 16,150 : Annual ...: 9,117 21,149 192,819 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: May 2010 and 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : from : : : : : : : 2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds --- million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 173 186 2,160 2,140 374 398 6.4 California ....: 1,755 1,772 2,020 2,075 3,545 3,677 3.7 Colorado ......: 117 126 2,050 2,030 240 256 6.7 Florida .......: 115 118 1,700 1,720 196 203 3.6 Idaho .........: 559 577 1,940 1,980 1,084 1,142 5.4 Illinois ......: 101 98 1,720 1,700 174 167 -4.0 Indiana .......: 169 170 1,815 1,805 307 307 Iowa ..........: 212 208 1,820 1,860 386 387 0.3 Kansas ........: 116 121 1,860 1,870 216 226 4.6 Michigan ......: 359 364 2,065 2,040 741 743 0.3 : Minnesota .....: 470 471 1,725 1,675 811 789 -2.7 Missouri ......: 101 96 1,340 1,360 135 131 -3.0 New Mexico ....: 324 327 2,160 2,180 700 713 1.9 New York ......: 610 610 1,850 1,825 1,129 1,113 -1.4 Ohio ..........: 271 268 1,765 1,680 478 450 -5.9 Oregon ........: 116 120 1,780 1,790 206 215 4.4 Pennsylvania ..: 541 543 1,750 1,730 947 939 -0.8 Texas .........: 410 430 1,880 1,950 771 839 8.8 Utah ..........: 85 87 1,850 1,810 157 157 Vermont .......: 137 135 1,625 1,655 223 223 : Virginia ......: 95 96 1,640 1,605 156 154 -1.3 Washington ....: 250 261 2,030 2,050 508 535 5.3 Wisconsin .....: 1,261 1,266 1,840 1,800 2,320 2,279 -1.8 : 23-State Total : 8,347 8,450 1,893 1,899 15,804 16,043 1.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: April 2010 and 2011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : from : : : : : : : 2010 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 head -- ---- pounds --- million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 171 187 2,145 2,125 367 397 8.2 California ....: 1,755 1,769 1,955 1,990 3,431 3,520 2.6 Colorado ......: 117 126 1,975 1,985 231 250 8.2 Florida .......: 114 118 1,770 1,750 202 207 2.5 Idaho .........: 557 576 1,850 1,870 1,030 1,077 4.6 Illinois ......: 101 98 1,670 1,680 169 165 -2.4 Indiana .......: 169 171 1,745 1,740 295 298 1.0 Iowa ..........: 212 209 1,750 1,780 371 372 0.3 Kansas ........: 116 121 1,805 1,820 209 220 5.3 Michigan ......: 357 362 1,970 1,955 703 708 0.7 : Minnesota .....: 470 471 1,650 1,615 776 761 -1.9 Missouri ......: 101 95 1,325 1,380 134 131 -2.2 New Mexico ....: 323 326 2,090 2,125 675 693 2.7 New York ......: 610 610 1,755 1,770 1,071 1,080 0.8 Ohio ..........: 272 268 1,680 1,620 457 434 -5.0 Oregon ........: 115 119 1,730 1,730 199 206 3.5 Pennsylvania ..: 541 543 1,710 1,690 925 918 -0.8 Texas .........: 410 426 1,855 1,915 761 816 7.2 Utah ..........: 84 87 1,780 1,740 150 151 0.7 Vermont .......: 137 135 1,565 1,600 214 216 0.9 : Virginia ......: 95 96 1,590 1,585 151 152 0.7 Washington ....: 249 256 1,975 1,990 492 509 3.5 Wisconsin .....: 1,261 1,266 1,745 1,730 2,200 2,190 -0.5 : 23-State Total : 8,337 8,435 1,825 1,834 15,213 15,471 1.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five- year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk cow inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 8.45 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.1 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : : Milk production ..............: 0.2 0.3 20 0 63 17 6 : All milk cows ................: 0.1 0.1 5 0 15 18 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Travis Averill - Dairy Products Prices ....... (202) 690-2168 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (515) 284-4340 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ..... (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Everett Olbert - Sheep and Goats ............. (202) 720-4751 Lorie Warren - Dairy Products ................ (202) 690-3236 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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