Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released November 18, 2011, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). October Milk Production up 2.5 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during October totaled 15.2 billion pounds, up 2.5 percent from October 2010. September revised production at 14.8 billion pounds, was up 1.9 percent from September 2010. The September revision represented a decrease of 10 million pounds or 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,787 pounds for October, 20 pounds above October 2010. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.48 million head, 111,000 head more than October 2010, and 10,000 head more than September 2011. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2010-2011 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : from : : : : : : : 2010 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 head -- ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,093 9,165 5,212 5,283 47,392 48,421 2.2 April-June ......: 9,119 9,198 5,462 5,483 49,809 50,432 1.3 July-September ..: 9,126 9,209 5,267 5,290 48,070 48,715 1.3 October-December : 9,130 5,208 47,548 : Annual ..........: 9,117 21,149 192,819 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production by Month - 23 Selected States: 2010-2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : from : : : : : : : 2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January ..: 8,319 8,404 1,784 1,810 14,839 15,213 2.5 February .: 8,323 8,405 1,642 1,664 13,670 13,987 2.3 March ....: 8,329 8,426 1,848 1,870 15,389 15,757 2.4 April ....: 8,337 8,435 1,825 1,834 15,213 15,471 1.7 May ......: 8,347 8,451 1,893 1,901 15,804 16,063 1.6 June .....: 8,356 8,460 1,817 1,819 15,186 15,389 1.3 July .....: 8,375 8,468 1,829 1,819 15,316 15,400 0.5 August ...: 8,369 8,471 1,792 1,812 14,998 15,347 2.3 September : 8,371 8,473 1,730 1,741 14,481 14,750 1.9 October ..: 8,372 8,483 1,767 1,787 14,796 15,161 2.5 November .: 8,373 1,722 14,421 December .: 8,387 1,791 15,025 : Annual ...: 8,355 21,440 179,138 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production by Month - United States: 2010-2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : from : : : : : : : 2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January ..: 9,089 9,158 1,763 1,789 16,020 16,385 2.3 February .: 9,092 9,158 1,623 1,645 14,758 15,065 2.1 March ....: 9,099 9,178 1,826 1,849 16,614 16,971 2.1 April ....: 9,108 9,185 1,802 1,812 16,416 16,643 1.4 May ......: 9,119 9,200 1,869 1,877 17,040 17,266 1.3 June .....: 9,129 9,208 1,791 1,794 16,353 16,523 1.0 July .....: 9,135 9,208 1,799 1,791 16,436 16,490 0.3 August ...: 9,123 9,209 1,764 1,784 16,094 16,432 2.1 September : 9,121 9,210 1,704 1,715 15,540 15,793 1.6 October ..: 9,123 9,219 1,743 1,760 15,900 16,230 2.1 November .: 9,125 1,698 15,498 December .: 9,141 1,767 16,150 : Annual ...: 9,117 21,149 192,819 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: October 2010 and 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : from : : : : : : : 2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds --- million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 183 192 1,825 1,865 334 358 7.2 California ....: 1,752 1,779 1,910 1,925 3,346 3,425 2.4 Colorado ......: 122 131 1,975 1,955 241 256 6.2 Florida .......: 114 120 1,335 1,365 152 164 7.9 Idaho .........: 572 582 1,930 1,930 1,104 1,123 1.7 Illinois ......: 98 98 1,560 1,600 153 157 2.6 Indiana .......: 169 171 1,670 1,710 282 292 3.5 Iowa ..........: 204 199 1,725 1,805 352 359 2.0 Kansas ........: 121 124 1,750 1,775 212 220 3.8 Michigan ......: 360 369 1,915 1,925 689 710 3.0 : Minnesota .....: 470 471 1,560 1,555 733 732 -0.1 Missouri ......: 97 95 1,180 1,180 114 112 -1.8 New Mexico ....: 318 332 2,055 2,100 653 697 6.7 New York ......: 611 610 1,725 1,725 1,054 1,052 -0.2 Ohio ..........: 270 268 1,600 1,600 432 429 -0.7 Oregon ........: 121 122 1,690 1,690 204 206 1.0 Pennsylvania ..: 541 538 1,640 1,620 887 872 -1.7 Texas .........: 415 435 1,775 1,860 737 809 9.8 Utah ..........: 85 87 1,790 1,800 152 157 3.3 Vermont .......: 136 134 1,520 1,560 207 209 1.0 : Virginia ......: 95 96 1,465 1,435 139 138 -0.7 Washington ....: 254 266 1,950 1,965 495 523 5.7 Wisconsin .....: 1,264 1,264 1,680 1,710 2,124 2,161 1.7 : 23-State Total : 8,372 8,483 1,767 1,787 14,796 15,161 2.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: September 2010 and 2011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : from : : : : : : : 2010 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 head -- ---- pounds --- million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 182 189 1,750 1,765 319 334 4.7 California ....: 1,752 1,778 1,880 1,865 3,294 3,316 0.7 Colorado ......: 122 130 1,945 1,930 237 251 5.9 Florida .......: 113 119 1,255 1,300 142 155 9.2 Idaho .........: 571 582 1,900 1,920 1,085 1,117 2.9 Illinois ......: 99 98 1,485 1,520 147 149 1.4 Indiana .......: 169 171 1,610 1,645 272 281 3.3 Iowa ..........: 205 198 1,670 1,750 342 347 1.5 Kansas ........: 121 124 1,685 1,710 204 212 3.9 Michigan ......: 359 369 1,885 1,870 677 690 1.9 : Minnesota .....: 470 471 1,530 1,505 719 709 -1.4 Missouri ......: 98 95 1,125 1,110 110 105 -4.5 New Mexico ....: 318 331 2,015 2,020 641 669 4.4 New York ......: 611 610 1,695 1,700 1,036 1,037 0.1 Ohio ..........: 270 268 1,560 1,550 421 415 -1.4 Oregon ........: 121 122 1,660 1,680 201 205 2.0 Pennsylvania ..: 542 537 1,600 1,590 867 854 -1.5 Texas .........: 415 435 1,695 1,780 703 774 10.1 Utah ..........: 85 87 1,770 1,760 150 153 2.0 Vermont .......: 136 134 1,485 1,515 202 203 0.5 : Virginia ......: 95 96 1,430 1,405 136 135 -0.7 Washington ....: 253 265 1,935 1,945 490 515 5.1 Wisconsin .....: 1,264 1,264 1,650 1,680 2,086 2,124 1.8 : 23-State Total : 8,371 8,473 1,730 1,741 14,481 14,750 1.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five- year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk cow inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 8.48 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.1 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : : Milk production ..............: 0.2 0.3 20 0 63 14 9 : All milk cows ................: 0.1 0.1 4 0 15 19 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Travis Averill - Dairy Products Prices ....... (202) 690-2168 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (515) 284-4340 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ..... (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Everett Olbert - Dairy Products Prices........ (202) 720-4751 Lorie Warren - Dairy Products ................ (202) 690-3236 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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