Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released March 19, 2012, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). February Milk Production up 8.3 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during February totaled 15.2 billion pounds, up 8.3 percent from February 2011. However, adjusting production for the additional day due to leap year causes February milk production to be up 4.6 percent on a per day basis. January revised production at 15.8 billion pounds, was up 3.9 percent from January 2011. The January revision represented an increase of 24 million pounds or 0.2 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,782 pounds for February, 117 pounds above February 2011. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.51 million head, 102,000 head more than February 2011, and 8,000 head more than January 2012. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2011-2012 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : from : : : : : : : 2011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head --- pounds --- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,168 5,286 48,459 April-June ......: 9,191 5,489 50,448 July-September ..: 9,200 5,292 48,684 October-December : 9,216 5,279 48,654 : Annual ..........: 9,194 21,345 196,245 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2011-2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : from : : : : : : : 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January ..: 8,405 8,502 1,811 1,859 15,219 15,806 3.9 February .: 8,408 8,510 1,665 1,782 13,997 15,162 8.3 March ....: 8,425 1,872 15,773 April ....: 8,431 1,835 15,475 May ......: 8,447 1,902 16,069 June .....: 8,450 1,820 15,382 July .....: 8,459 1,820 15,395 August ...: 8,463 1,813 15,342 September : 8,466 1,742 14,744 October ..: 8,475 1,790 15,170 November .: 8,475 1,739 14,742 December .: 8,485 1,818 15,426 : Annual ...: 8,449 21,627 182,734 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production by Month - United States: 2011-2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : from : : : : : : : 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January ..: 9,160 9,241 1,790 1,836 16,393 16,970 3.5 February .: 9,163 9,250 1,645 1,760 15,077 16,280 8.0 March ....: 9,180 1,851 16,989 April ....: 9,182 1,814 16,652 May ......: 9,194 1,879 17,278 June .....: 9,196 1,796 16,518 July .....: 9,198 1,792 16,479 August ...: 9,200 1,785 16,422 September : 9,201 1,715 15,783 October ..: 9,212 1,767 16,278 November .: 9,213 1,717 15,820 December .: 9,223 1,795 16,556 : Annual ...: 9,194 21,345 196,245 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: February 2011 and 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : from : : : : : : : 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds --- million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 185 192 1,915 2,060 354 396 11.9 California ....: 1,756 1,784 1,800 1,965 3,161 3,506 10.9 Colorado ......: 123 133 1,795 1,865 221 248 12.2 Florida .......: 118 122 1,690 1,740 199 212 6.5 Idaho .........: 573 580 1,690 1,800 968 1,044 7.9 Illinois ......: 98 100 1,530 1,630 150 163 8.7 Indiana .......: 171 175 1,585 1,700 271 298 10.0 Iowa ..........: 208 205 1,630 1,750 339 359 5.9 Kansas ........: 122 123 1,615 1,710 197 210 6.6 Michigan ......: 364 374 1,790 1,910 652 714 9.5 : Minnesota .....: 470 465 1,485 1,585 698 737 5.6 Missouri ......: 95 93 1,140 1,215 108 113 4.6 New Mexico ....: 324 335 1,890 1,985 612 665 8.7 New York ......: 610 610 1,620 1,730 988 1,055 6.8 Ohio ..........: 271 270 1,500 1,570 407 424 4.2 Oregon ........: 119 123 1,555 1,600 185 197 6.5 Pennsylvania ..: 543 541 1,510 1,570 820 849 3.5 Texas .........: 425 436 1,720 1,835 731 800 9.4 Utah ..........: 86 91 1,590 1,690 137 154 12.4 Vermont .......: 135 133 1,465 1,535 198 204 3.0 : Virginia ......: 95 96 1,440 1,510 137 145 5.8 Washington ....: 251 263 1,820 1,895 457 498 9.0 Wisconsin .....: 1,266 1,266 1,585 1,715 2,007 2,171 8.2 : 23-State Total : 8,408 8,510 1,665 1,782 13,997 15,162 8.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: January 2011 and 2012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : from : : : : : : : 2011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 head -- ---- pounds --- million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 185 190 2,015 2,100 373 399 7.0 California ....: 1,752 1,782 1,935 2,030 3,390 3,617 6.7 Colorado ......: 123 133 1,975 1,970 243 262 7.8 Florida .......: 116 122 1,775 1,780 206 217 5.3 Idaho .........: 573 581 1,860 1,920 1,066 1,116 4.7 Illinois ......: 98 100 1,660 1,710 163 171 4.9 Indiana .......: 172 175 1,710 1,775 294 311 5.8 Iowa ..........: 210 205 1,775 1,865 373 382 2.4 Kansas ........: 123 123 1,775 1,800 218 221 1.4 Michigan ......: 363 372 1,960 1,980 711 737 3.7 : Minnesota .....: 470 465 1,630 1,660 766 772 0.8 Missouri ......: 95 93 1,240 1,270 118 118 New Mexico ....: 323 335 2,105 2,045 680 685 0.7 New York ......: 610 610 1,775 1,800 1,083 1,098 1.4 Ohio ..........: 270 270 1,620 1,640 437 443 1.4 Oregon ........: 120 123 1,685 1,685 202 207 2.5 Pennsylvania ..: 543 540 1,640 1,660 891 896 0.6 Texas .........: 425 435 1,875 1,900 797 827 3.8 Utah ..........: 87 91 1,740 1,805 151 164 8.6 Vermont .......: 135 133 1,605 1,625 217 216 -0.5 : Virginia ......: 95 96 1,545 1,575 147 151 2.7 Washington ....: 252 263 1,975 1,995 498 525 5.4 Wisconsin .....: 1,265 1,265 1,735 1,795 2,195 2,271 3.5 : 23-State Total : 8,405 8,502 1,811 1,859 15,219 15,806 3.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five- year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk cow inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 8.51 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.2 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : : Milk production ..............: 0.2 0.3 19 1 60 17 7 : All milk cows ................: 0.1 0.2 7 1 17 15 9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Travis Averill - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ...... (202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (515) 284-4340 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs, Goats ........... (202) 720-3106 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Everett Olbert - Dairy Products Prices ....... (202) 720-4751 Lorie Warren - Dairy Products, Sheep ......... (202) 690-3236 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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