Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released June 18, 2012, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). May Milk Production up 2.1 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during May totaled 16.4 billion pounds, up 2.1 percent from May 2011. April revised production at 16.0 billion pounds, was up 3.5 percent from April 2011. The April revision represented an increase of 38 million pounds or 0.2 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,924 pounds for May, 22 pounds above May 2011. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.52 million head, 77,000 head more than May 2011, but 3,000 head less than April 2012. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2011-2012 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : from : : : : : : : 2011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 head -- ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,168 9,254 5,286 5,510 48,459 50,990 5.2 April-June ......: 9,191 5,489 50,448 July-September ..: 9,200 5,292 48,684 October-December : 9,216 5,279 48,654 : Annual ..........: 9,194 21,345 196,245 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2011-2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : from : : : : : : : 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January ..: 8,405 8,502 1,811 1,859 15,219 15,806 3.9 February .: 8,408 8,510 1,665 1,780 13,997 15,149 8.2 March ....: 8,425 8,521 1,872 1,930 15,773 16,447 4.3 April ....: 8,431 8,527 1,835 1,879 15,475 16,021 3.5 May ......: 8,447 8,524 1,902 1,924 16,069 16,404 2.1 June .....: 8,450 1,820 15,382 July .....: 8,459 1,820 15,395 August ...: 8,463 1,813 15,342 September : 8,466 1,742 14,744 October ..: 8,475 1,790 15,170 November .: 8,475 1,739 14,742 December .: 8,485 1,818 15,426 : Annual ...: 8,449 21,627 182,734 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production by Month - United States: 2011-2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : from : : : : : : : 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January ..: 9,160 9,242 1,790 1,840 16,393 17,001 3.7 February .: 9,163 9,254 1,645 1,761 15,077 16,297 8.1 March ....: 9,180 9,267 1,851 1,909 16,989 17,692 4.1 April ....: 9,182 9,274 1,814 1,857 16,652 17,225 3.4 May ......: 9,194 9,270 1,879 1,901 17,278 17,625 2.0 June .....: 9,196 1,796 16,518 July .....: 9,198 1,792 16,479 August ...: 9,200 1,785 16,422 September : 9,201 1,715 15,783 October ..: 9,212 1,767 16,278 November .: 9,213 1,717 15,820 December .: 9,223 1,795 16,556 : Annual ...: 9,194 21,345 196,245 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: May 2011 and 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : from : : : : : : : 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds --- million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 186 194 2,140 2,155 398 418 5.0 California ....: 1,767 1,783 2,080 2,100 3,675 3,744 1.9 Colorado ......: 126 132 2,040 2,105 257 278 8.2 Florida .......: 119 123 1,725 1,785 205 220 7.3 Idaho .........: 578 578 1,980 2,030 1,144 1,173 2.5 Illinois ......: 98 100 1,700 1,720 167 172 3.0 Indiana .......: 171 176 1,825 1,855 312 326 4.5 Iowa ..........: 208 206 1,860 1,855 387 382 -1.3 Kansas ........: 122 124 1,855 1,895 226 235 4.0 Michigan ......: 364 375 2,040 2,050 743 769 3.5 : Minnesota .....: 468 465 1,680 1,690 786 786 Missouri ......: 96 94 1,360 1,390 131 131 New Mexico ....: 327 337 2,180 2,145 713 723 1.4 New York ......: 610 610 1,845 1,890 1,125 1,153 2.5 Ohio ..........: 268 271 1,680 1,735 450 470 4.4 Oregon ........: 121 123 1,790 1,805 217 222 2.3 Pennsylvania ..: 543 536 1,730 1,715 939 919 -2.1 Texas .........: 430 440 1,955 1,925 841 847 0.7 Utah ..........: 87 91 1,810 1,865 157 170 8.3 Vermont .......: 135 133 1,655 1,675 223 223 : Virginia ......: 96 96 1,585 1,585 152 152 Washington ....: 261 266 2,055 2,075 536 552 3.0 Wisconsin .....: 1,266 1,271 1,805 1,840 2,285 2,339 2.4 : 23-State Total : 8,447 8,524 1,902 1,924 16,069 16,404 2.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: April 2011 and 2012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : from : : : : : : : 2011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 head -- ---- pounds --- million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 187 194 2,125 2,155 397 418 5.3 California ....: 1,764 1,785 1,995 2,035 3,519 3,632 3.2 Colorado ......: 126 132 1,985 2,030 250 268 7.2 Florida .......: 119 123 1,740 1,800 207 221 6.8 Idaho .........: 576 578 1,870 1,910 1,077 1,104 2.5 Illinois ......: 98 100 1,680 1,730 165 173 4.8 Indiana .......: 172 176 1,775 1,830 305 322 5.6 Iowa ..........: 209 207 1,780 1,855 372 384 3.2 Kansas ........: 122 124 1,805 1,870 220 232 5.5 Michigan ......: 362 376 1,955 2,000 708 752 6.2 : Minnesota .....: 469 465 1,620 1,655 760 770 1.3 Missouri ......: 95 94 1,380 1,445 131 136 3.8 New Mexico ....: 326 337 2,125 2,130 693 718 3.6 New York ......: 610 610 1,770 1,835 1,080 1,119 3.6 Ohio ..........: 268 271 1,620 1,705 434 462 6.5 Oregon ........: 119 123 1,730 1,725 206 212 2.9 Pennsylvania ..: 543 538 1,690 1,690 918 909 -1.0 Texas .........: 426 440 1,915 1,915 816 843 3.3 Utah ..........: 87 91 1,740 1,790 151 163 7.9 Vermont .......: 135 133 1,595 1,625 215 216 0.5 : Virginia ......: 96 96 1,585 1,595 152 153 0.7 Washington ....: 256 264 1,990 2,000 509 528 3.7 Wisconsin .....: 1,266 1,270 1,730 1,800 2,190 2,286 4.4 : 23-State Total : 8,431 8,527 1,835 1,879 15,475 16,021 3.5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five- year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk cow inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 8.52 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.1 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : : Milk production ..............: 0.1 0.2 18 1 60 15 9 : All milk cows ................: 0.1 0.1 6 0 17 14 9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Travis Averill - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ...... (202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (515) 284-4340 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 Jim Collom - Dairy Products .................. (202) 690-3236 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Vacant - Sheep and Goats ..................... (202) 720-4751 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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