Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released August 17, 2012, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). July Milk Production Up 0.8 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during July totaled 15.5 billion pounds, up 0.8 percent from July 2011. June revised production at 15.5 billion pounds, was up 1.1 percent from June 2011. The June revision represented an increase of 2 million pounds or less than 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,826 pounds for July, 6 pounds above July 2011. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.50 million head, 41,000 head more than July 2011, but 7,000 head less than June 2012. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2011-2012 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : from : : : : : : : 2011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 head -- ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,168 9,254 5,286 5,513 48,459 51,017 5.3 April-June ......: 9,191 9,257 5,489 5,562 50,448 51,484 2.1 July-September ..: 9,200 5,292 48,684 October-December : 9,216 5,279 48,654 : Annual ..........: 9,194 21,345 196,245 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2011-2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : from : : : : : : : 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January ..: 8,405 8,502 1,811 1,859 15,219 15,806 3.9 February .: 8,408 8,510 1,665 1,780 13,997 15,149 8.2 March ....: 8,425 8,521 1,872 1,930 15,773 16,447 4.3 April ....: 8,431 8,527 1,835 1,879 15,475 16,021 3.5 May ......: 8,447 8,521 1,902 1,923 16,069 16,382 1.9 June .....: 8,450 8,507 1,820 1,827 15,382 15,545 1.1 July .....: 8,459 8,500 1,820 1,826 15,395 15,520 0.8 August ...: 8,463 1,813 15,342 September : 8,466 1,742 14,744 October ..: 8,475 1,790 15,170 November .: 8,475 1,739 14,742 December .: 8,485 1,818 15,426 : Annual ...: 8,449 21,627 182,734 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production by Month - United States: 2011-2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : from : : : : : : : 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January ..: 9,160 9,242 1,790 1,841 16,393 17,011 3.8 February .: 9,163 9,254 1,645 1,762 15,077 16,305 8.1 March ....: 9,180 9,267 1,851 1,910 16,989 17,701 4.2 April ....: 9,182 9,271 1,814 1,857 16,652 17,220 3.4 May ......: 9,194 9,260 1,879 1,900 17,278 17,592 1.8 June .....: 9,196 9,239 1,796 1,805 16,518 16,672 0.9 July .....: 9,198 9,227 1,792 1,799 16,479 16,600 0.7 August ...: 9,200 1,785 16,422 September : 9,201 1,715 15,783 October ..: 9,212 1,767 16,278 November .: 9,213 1,717 15,820 December .: 9,223 1,795 16,556 : Annual ...: 9,194 21,345 196,245 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: July 2011 and 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : from : : : : : : : 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds --- million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 186 185 1,885 1,915 351 354 0.9 California ....: 1,772 1,785 1,995 1,960 3,535 3,499 -1.0 Colorado ......: 128 133 2,010 2,045 257 272 5.8 Florida .......: 119 123 1,520 1,520 181 187 3.3 Idaho .........: 582 579 2,050 2,070 1,193 1,199 0.5 Illinois ......: 98 100 1,530 1,550 150 155 3.3 Indiana .......: 171 176 1,690 1,690 289 297 2.8 Iowa ..........: 200 203 1,720 1,705 344 346 0.6 Kansas ........: 123 124 1,755 1,780 216 221 2.3 Michigan ......: 366 376 1,945 1,970 712 741 4.1 : Minnesota .....: 467 465 1,545 1,570 722 730 1.1 Missouri ......: 96 94 1,110 1,195 107 112 4.7 New Mexico ....: 330 328 2,105 2,060 695 676 -2.7 New York ......: 610 610 1,790 1,825 1,092 1,113 1.9 Ohio ..........: 266 270 1,580 1,600 420 432 2.9 Oregon ........: 123 123 1,790 1,755 220 216 -1.8 Pennsylvania ..: 540 535 1,630 1,620 880 867 -1.5 Texas .........: 435 440 1,835 1,770 798 779 -2.4 Utah ..........: 88 90 1,840 1,900 162 171 5.6 Vermont .......: 134 133 1,600 1,640 214 218 1.9 : Virginia ......: 96 96 1,440 1,450 138 139 0.7 Washington ....: 265 261 2,055 2,020 545 527 -3.3 Wisconsin .....: 1,264 1,271 1,720 1,785 2,174 2,269 4.4 : 23-State Total : 8,459 8,500 1,820 1,826 15,395 15,520 0.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: June 2011 and 2012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : from : : : : : : : 2011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 head -- ---- pounds --- million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 186 188 1,980 2,010 368 378 2.7 California ....: 1,769 1,784 1,985 1,975 3,511 3,523 0.3 Colorado ......: 127 133 1,990 2,015 253 268 5.9 Florida .......: 119 123 1,630 1,620 194 199 2.6 Idaho .........: 578 578 1,960 1,990 1,133 1,150 1.5 Illinois ......: 98 100 1,600 1,610 157 161 2.5 Indiana .......: 171 176 1,715 1,745 293 307 4.8 Iowa ..........: 204 205 1,775 1,745 362 358 -1.1 Kansas ........: 123 124 1,765 1,790 217 222 2.3 Michigan ......: 364 376 1,960 1,965 713 739 3.6 : Minnesota .....: 468 465 1,610 1,600 753 744 -1.2 Missouri ......: 96 94 1,210 1,265 116 119 2.6 New Mexico ....: 328 332 2,100 2,035 689 676 -1.9 New York ......: 610 610 1,770 1,800 1,080 1,098 1.7 Ohio ..........: 266 270 1,575 1,630 419 440 5.0 Oregon ........: 122 123 1,730 1,740 211 214 1.4 Pennsylvania ..: 542 535 1,620 1,610 878 861 -1.9 Texas .........: 434 440 1,850 1,785 803 785 -2.2 Utah ..........: 88 90 1,770 1,830 156 165 5.8 Vermont .......: 134 133 1,580 1,610 212 214 0.9 : Virginia ......: 96 96 1,450 1,460 139 140 0.7 Washington ....: 262 261 2,000 2,000 524 522 -0.4 Wisconsin .....: 1,265 1,271 1,740 1,780 2,201 2,262 2.8 : 23-State Total : 8,450 8,507 1,820 1,827 15,382 15,545 1.1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five- year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk cow inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 8.50 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.1 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : : Milk production ..............: 0.1 0.2 15 1 50 14 10 : All milk cows ................: 0.1 0.1 5 0 12 12 10 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Travis Averill - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ...... (202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (515) 284-4340 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Alissa Cowell-Mytar - Sheep and Goats ........ (202) 720-4751 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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