Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released September 19, 2012, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). August Milk Production Down 0.2 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during August totaled 15.3 billion pounds, down 0.2 percent from August 2011. July revised production at 15.5 billion pounds, was up 0.7 percent from July 2011. The July revision represented a decrease of 24 million pounds or 0.2 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,803 pounds for August, 10 pounds below August 2011. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.50 million head, 32,000 head more than August 2011, but 4,000 head less than July 2012. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2011-2012 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : from : : : : : : : 2011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 head -- ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,168 9,254 5,286 5,513 48,459 51,017 5.3 April-June ......: 9,191 9,257 5,489 5,562 50,448 51,484 2.1 July-September ..: 9,200 5,292 48,684 October-December : 9,216 5,279 48,654 : Annual ..........: 9,194 21,345 196,245 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2011-2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : from : : : : : : : 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January ..: 8,405 8,502 1,811 1,859 15,219 15,806 3.9 February .: 8,408 8,510 1,665 1,780 13,997 15,149 8.2 March ....: 8,425 8,521 1,872 1,930 15,773 16,447 4.3 April ....: 8,431 8,527 1,835 1,879 15,475 16,021 3.5 May ......: 8,447 8,521 1,902 1,923 16,069 16,382 1.9 June .....: 8,450 8,507 1,820 1,827 15,382 15,545 1.1 July .....: 8,459 8,499 1,820 1,823 15,395 15,496 0.7 August ...: 8,463 8,495 1,813 1,803 15,342 15,313 -0.2 September : 8,466 1,742 14,744 October ..: 8,475 1,790 15,170 November .: 8,475 1,739 14,742 December .: 8,485 1,818 15,426 : Annual ...: 8,449 21,627 182,734 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production by Month - United States: 2011-2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : from : : : : : : : 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January ..: 9,160 9,242 1,790 1,841 16,393 17,011 3.8 February .: 9,163 9,254 1,645 1,762 15,077 16,305 8.1 March ....: 9,180 9,267 1,851 1,910 16,989 17,701 4.2 April ....: 9,182 9,271 1,814 1,857 16,652 17,220 3.4 May ......: 9,194 9,260 1,879 1,900 17,278 17,592 1.8 June .....: 9,196 9,239 1,796 1,805 16,518 16,672 0.9 July .....: 9,198 9,226 1,792 1,797 16,479 16,576 0.6 August ...: 9,200 9,220 1,785 1,776 16,422 16,377 -0.3 September : 9,201 1,715 15,783 October ..: 9,212 1,767 16,278 November .: 9,213 1,717 15,820 December .: 9,223 1,795 16,556 : Annual ...: 9,194 21,345 196,245 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: August 2011 and 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : from : : : : : : : 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds --- million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 187 184 1,815 1,770 339 326 -3.8 California ....: 1,773 1,783 1,975 1,850 3,502 3,299 -5.8 Colorado ......: 129 133 2,000 2,060 258 274 6.2 Florida .......: 119 123 1,400 1,410 167 173 3.6 Idaho .........: 582 578 2,030 2,040 1,181 1,179 -0.2 Illinois ......: 98 100 1,530 1,560 150 156 4.0 Indiana .......: 173 176 1,690 1,725 292 304 4.1 Iowa ..........: 200 203 1,770 1,790 354 363 2.5 Kansas ........: 123 124 1,750 1,790 215 222 3.3 Michigan ......: 366 376 1,940 1,990 710 748 5.4 : Minnesota .....: 467 465 1,570 1,620 733 753 2.7 Missouri ......: 95 94 1,105 1,120 105 105 New Mexico ....: 330 328 2,065 2,015 681 661 -2.9 New York ......: 610 610 1,785 1,820 1,089 1,110 1.9 Ohio ..........: 267 270 1,590 1,620 425 437 2.8 Oregon ........: 123 123 1,760 1,750 216 215 -0.5 Pennsylvania ..: 539 535 1,640 1,625 884 869 -1.7 Texas .........: 435 440 1,795 1,740 781 766 -1.9 Utah ..........: 88 89 1,830 1,850 161 165 2.5 Vermont .......: 134 133 1,580 1,610 212 214 0.9 : Virginia ......: 96 96 1,460 1,440 140 138 -1.4 Washington ....: 265 261 2,040 2,005 541 523 -3.3 Wisconsin .....: 1,264 1,271 1,745 1,820 2,206 2,313 4.9 : 23-State Total : 8,463 8,495 1,813 1,803 15,342 15,313 -0.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: July 2011 and 2012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : from : : : : : : : 2011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 head -- ---- pounds --- million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 186 185 1,885 1,915 351 354 0.9 California ....: 1,772 1,785 1,995 1,960 3,535 3,499 -1.0 Colorado ......: 128 133 2,010 2,050 257 273 6.2 Florida .......: 119 123 1,520 1,520 181 187 3.3 Idaho .........: 582 578 2,050 2,050 1,193 1,185 -0.7 Illinois ......: 98 100 1,530 1,550 150 155 3.3 Indiana .......: 171 176 1,690 1,690 289 297 2.8 Iowa ..........: 200 203 1,720 1,720 344 349 1.5 Kansas ........: 123 124 1,755 1,780 216 221 2.3 Michigan ......: 366 376 1,945 1,970 712 741 4.1 : Minnesota .....: 467 465 1,545 1,580 722 735 1.8 Missouri ......: 96 94 1,110 1,170 107 110 2.8 New Mexico ....: 330 328 2,105 2,060 695 676 -2.7 New York ......: 610 610 1,790 1,825 1,092 1,113 1.9 Ohio ..........: 266 270 1,580 1,590 420 429 2.1 Oregon ........: 123 123 1,790 1,770 220 218 -0.9 Pennsylvania ..: 540 535 1,630 1,620 880 867 -1.5 Texas .........: 435 440 1,835 1,770 798 779 -2.4 Utah ..........: 88 90 1,840 1,900 162 171 5.6 Vermont .......: 134 133 1,600 1,640 214 218 1.9 : Virginia ......: 96 96 1,440 1,425 138 137 -0.7 Washington ....: 265 261 2,055 2,015 545 526 -3.5 Wisconsin .....: 1,264 1,271 1,720 1,775 2,174 2,256 3.8 : 23-State Total : 8,459 8,499 1,820 1,823 15,395 15,496 0.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five- year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk cow inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 8.50 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.1 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : : Milk production ..............: 0.1 0.2 16 1 50 13 11 : All milk cows ................: 0.1 0.1 5 0 12 11 11 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Travis Averill - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ...... (202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (515) 284-4340 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Alissa Cowell-Mytar - Sheep and Goats ........ (202) 720-4751 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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