Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released November 19, 2012, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). October Milk Production down slightly Milk production in the 23 major States during October totaled 15.2 billion pounds, down slightly from October 2011. September revised production at 14.7 billion pounds, was down 0.6 percent from September 2011. The September revision represented a decrease of 19 million pounds or 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,791 pounds for October, 1 pound above October 2011. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.47 million head, 10,000 head less than October 2011, and 8,000 head less than September 2012. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2011-2012 [Totals may not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : from : : : : : : : 2011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 head -- ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,168 9,254 5,286 5,513 48,459 51,017 5.3 April-June ......: 9,191 9,257 5,489 5,562 50,448 51,484 2.1 July-September ..: 9,200 9,215 5,292 5,285 48,684 48,705 - October-December : 9,216 5,279 48,654 : Annual ..........: 9,194 21,345 196,245 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production by Month - 23 Selected States: 2011-2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : from : : : : : : : 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January ..: 8,405 8,502 1,811 1,859 15,219 15,806 3.9 February .: 8,408 8,510 1,665 1,780 13,997 15,149 8.2 March ....: 8,425 8,521 1,872 1,930 15,773 16,447 4.3 April ....: 8,431 8,527 1,835 1,879 15,475 16,021 3.5 May ......: 8,447 8,521 1,902 1,923 16,069 16,382 1.9 June .....: 8,450 8,507 1,820 1,827 15,382 15,545 1.1 July .....: 8,459 8,499 1,820 1,823 15,395 15,496 0.7 August ...: 8,463 8,496 1,813 1,805 15,342 15,339 - September : 8,466 8,473 1,742 1,729 14,744 14,651 -0.6 October ..: 8,475 8,465 1,790 1,791 15,170 15,165 - November .: 8,475 1,739 14,742 December .: 8,485 1,818 15,426 : Annual ...: 8,449 21,627 182,734 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production by Month - United States: 2011-2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : from : : : : : : : 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January ..: 9,160 9,242 1,790 1,841 16,393 17,011 3.8 February .: 9,163 9,254 1,645 1,762 15,077 16,305 8.1 March ....: 9,180 9,267 1,851 1,910 16,989 17,701 4.2 April ....: 9,182 9,271 1,814 1,857 16,652 17,220 3.4 May ......: 9,194 9,260 1,879 1,900 17,278 17,592 1.8 June .....: 9,196 9,239 1,796 1,805 16,518 16,672 0.9 July .....: 9,198 9,228 1,792 1,798 16,479 16,592 0.7 August ...: 9,200 9,222 1,785 1,781 16,422 16,424 - September : 9,201 9,196 1,715 1,706 15,783 15,689 -0.6 October ..: 9,212 9,187 1,767 1,769 16,278 16,255 -0.1 November .: 9,213 1,717 15,820 December .: 9,223 1,795 16,556 : Annual ...: 9,194 21,345 196,245 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: October 2011 and 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : from : : : : : : : 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds --- million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 192 180 1,865 1,900 358 342 -4.5 California ....: 1,776 1,778 1,930 1,860 3,428 3,307 -3.5 Colorado ......: 131 135 1,955 2,005 256 271 5.9 Florida .......: 120 123 1,350 1,310 162 161 -0.6 Idaho .........: 581 577 1,930 1,960 1,121 1,131 0.9 Illinois ......: 98 100 1,600 1,580 157 158 0.6 Indiana .......: 173 173 1,720 1,750 298 303 1.7 Iowa ..........: 199 203 1,805 1,795 359 364 1.4 Kansas ........: 123 126 1,765 1,810 217 228 5.1 Michigan ......: 369 374 1,925 1,950 710 729 2.7 : Minnesota .....: 466 465 1,555 1,605 725 746 2.9 Missouri ......: 95 93 1,180 1,180 112 110 -1.8 New Mexico ....: 332 324 2,100 2,025 697 656 -5.9 New York ......: 610 610 1,725 1,770 1,052 1,080 2.7 Ohio ..........: 268 270 1,600 1,630 429 440 2.6 Oregon ........: 122 123 1,705 1,690 208 208 - Pennsylvania ..: 538 533 1,620 1,630 872 869 -0.3 Texas .........: 435 430 1,870 1,795 813 772 -5.0 Utah ..........: 87 88 1,800 1,810 157 159 1.3 Vermont .......: 134 133 1,560 1,595 209 212 1.4 : Virginia ......: 96 95 1,450 1,455 139 138 -0.7 Washington ....: 266 261 1,965 1,960 523 512 -2.1 Wisconsin .....: 1,264 1,271 1,715 1,785 2,168 2,269 4.7 : 23-State Total : 8,475 8,465 1,790 1,791 15,170 15,165 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: September 2011 and 2012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : from : : : : : : : 2011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 head -- ---- pounds --- million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 189 181 1,765 1,745 334 316 -5.4 California ....: 1,776 1,779 1,865 1,790 3,312 3,184 -3.9 Colorado ......: 130 135 1,930 1,955 251 264 5.2 Florida .......: 119 123 1,300 1,250 155 154 -0.6 Idaho .........: 582 580 1,920 1,930 1,117 1,119 0.2 Illinois ......: 98 100 1,520 1,490 149 149 - Indiana .......: 173 173 1,640 1,650 284 285 0.4 Iowa ..........: 198 201 1,750 1,720 347 346 -0.3 Kansas ........: 123 126 1,705 1,740 210 219 4.3 Michigan ......: 367 374 1,870 1,885 686 705 2.8 : Minnesota .....: 466 465 1,520 1,550 708 721 1.8 Missouri ......: 95 93 1,110 1,110 105 103 -1.9 New Mexico ....: 331 326 2,020 1,960 669 639 -4.5 New York ......: 610 610 1,700 1,740 1,037 1,061 2.3 Ohio ..........: 268 270 1,550 1,540 415 416 0.2 Oregon ........: 122 123 1,680 1,665 205 205 - Pennsylvania ..: 537 533 1,590 1,560 854 831 -2.7 Texas .........: 435 433 1,780 1,705 774 738 -4.7 Utah ..........: 88 88 1,760 1,760 155 155 - Vermont .......: 134 133 1,515 1,550 203 206 1.5 : Virginia ......: 96 95 1,405 1,380 135 131 -3.0 Washington ....: 265 261 1,945 1,935 515 505 -1.9 Wisconsin .....: 1,264 1,271 1,680 1,730 2,124 2,199 3.5 : 23-State Total : 8,466 8,473 1,742 1,729 14,744 14,651 -0.6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five- year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk cow inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 8.47 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.1 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ----- : : Milk production ..............: 0.1 0.2 16 1 50 13 11 : All milk cows ................: 0.1 0.1 4 0 12 11 11 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Travis Averill - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ...... (202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (515) 284-4340 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Alissa Cowell-Mytar - Sheep and Goats ........ (202) 720-4751 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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