Pr Rc 2 (2-05) Price Reactions After USDA Livestock Reports National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. This report contains annual average and monthly cattle price reactions to the USDA "Cattle on Feed" reports. Monthly "Cattle on Feed" reports publish on-feed inventory, fed cattle marketings, and feeder cattle placements. Also in this report are hog price reactions to the USDA "Quarterly Hogs and Pigs" reports. Each year quarterly hog and pig inventory, sows farrowing, and pig crop estimates are published in March, June, September, and December along with 3-month and 6-month farrowing intentions. The prices in this report for Cattle and Hogs represent sales from producers to first buyers at major markets as reported by the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). These prices are published for the day before each report and for the day and week after each report. The price reaction after the "Hogs and Pigs" and "Cattle on Feed" reports is indicated by the difference between the price for the day before each report and the day or week after each report. New to this publication this year is the dairy products price reactions to the USDA monthly "Milk Production" reports. The number of milk cows, milk per cow and total milk production are published each month for the 20 major milk producing States. The butter and cheddar cheese prices in this report are based on the daily cash settlement prices reported by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Weekly average prices were computed for the week before and week after each monthly "Milk Production" report. Annual Cattle Price Reactions to Official Releases -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of and Average Price Changes 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Week Prior to Release : Week After Release :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Increases : Decreases : Increases : Decreases :--------------------------------------------------------------- Marketing: : : : : : : : Year 2/ :Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars : 1993 : 6 1.62 6 1.28 5 1.35 7 1.80 1994 : 5 1.79 7 0.98 3 1.95 9 1.40 1995 : 5 0.85 6 1.48 4 0.71 8 0.79 1996 : 4 1.17 8 1.51 3 0.72 8 1.22 1997 : 5 1.30 7 0.79 5 1.19 7 0.74 1998 : 6 1.53 6 1.20 3 0.98 9 1.12 1999 : 9 0.73 3 1.11 5 0.38 7 0.50 2000 : 8 0.76 4 0.69 7 0.78 5 1.08 2001 : 5 0.84 7 1.78 5 1.87 7 1.47 2002 : 9 1.24 3 1.40 5 1.14 7 1.68 2003 : 5 3.73 7 2.41 5 1.90 7 3.24 2004 : 9 1.73 3 1.85 5 4.07 7 1.83 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the weekly weighted average price for live steers and Heifers from feedlots in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Iowa, and Southern Minnesota. Total increases and decreases may not Add to twelve for a year when the week-to-week price does not change. Mandatory Price Reporting began April 1, 2001. Source: Market News, Agriculture Marketing Service. 2/ Marketing year represents the January-December calendar year. Monthly Cattle Price Reactions to Official Releases --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average Price 1/ : : : :-------------------------------: : : : : : : Change From : : : : :------------------- : : : : : Week : Week of : : : : :Before to: Release Release :Inventory : Week : Week of : Week : Week of : to Week Date : Change2/ : Prior : Release : After : Release : After --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------------------- Dollars ------------------- : Jan 16, 2004: 6 74.55 79.00 85.72 4.45 6.72 Feb 20, 2004: 4 77.31 78.78 81.94 1.47 3.16 Mar 19, 2004: 4 87.77 86.61 82.85 -1.16 -3.76 Apr 16, 2004: 0.3 86.06 86.74 85.15 0.68 -1.59 May 21, 2004: -2 87.40 86.04 85.15 -1.36 -0.89 Jun 18, 2003: 1 90.03 87.00 89.55 -3.03 2.55 Jul 23, 2004: 2 82.66 84.69 84.58 2.03 -0.11 Aug 20, 2004: 3 84.43 86.96 82.22 2.53 -4.74 Sep 17, 2004: 1 81.56 84.39 83.88 2.83 -0.51 Oct 22, 2004: 3 85.59 86.00 84.76 0.41 -1.24 Nov 19, 2004: 3 84.25 84.62 88.43 0.37 3.81 Dec 17, 2004: 0.1 84.76 85.57 89.68 0.81 4.11 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the weekly weighted average prices per cwt. For live Steers and heifers from feedlots in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Iowa, and Southern Minnesota. Source: Market News, Agriculture Marketing Service. 2/ Change from previous year. Annual Hog Price Reactions to Official Releases -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of and Average Price Changes 1/2/3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Week Prior to Release : Week After Release :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Increases : Decreases : Increases : Decreases :--------------------------------------------------------------- Marketing: : : : : : : : Year4/ :Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars : 1994 : 1 0.21 3 -0.59 1 2.18 3 -1.11 1995 : 1 7.60 3 -0.86 1 0.47 3 -2.09 1996 : 1 1.71 3 -0.40 3 1.44 1 -2.53 1997 : 2 2.42 2 -1.59 4 0.76 0 0.00 1998 : 1 0.50 3 -0.96 1 1.26 3 -1.67 1999 : 4 2.52 0 0.00 2 2.37 2 -3.64 2000 : 2 1.70 2 -1.31 3 1.98 1 -2.97 2001 : 0 0.00 4 -0.57 1 1.31 3 -0.68 2002 : 3 0.79 1 -0.89 3 1.15 1 -2.92 2003 : 1 1.24 3 -2.66 0 0.00 4 -1.13 2004 : 3 2.13 1 -0.28 1 0.12 3 -2.33 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Barrows and Gilts, 5 markets combined. 2/ Slaughter Hogs, Iowa, Southern Minnesota starting in December 1998 To April 2001. Source: Market News, Agriculture Marketing Service. 3/ Slaughter Hogs, Iowa, Southern Minnesota base lean prices, Converted to live price starting April 2001, Source: Market News, Agriculture Marketing Service. 4/ Marketing year represents December of the previous year through November of current year. Annual average prices are based on December-September prices. Quarterly Hog Price Reactions to Official Releases, 2003-2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average Price 1/ : : : :-------------------------------: : : : : : : Change From : : : : :------------------- : : : : : Week : Week of : : : : :Before to: Release Release :Inventory : Week : Week of : Week : Week of : to Week Date :Change 2/ : Prior : Release : After : Release : After --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------------------- Dollars ------------------- : Mar 28, 2003: -1.9 36.10 34.68 33.51 -1.42 -1.17 Jun 27, 2003: -2.6 48.16 44.55 44.10 -3.61 -0.45 Sep 26, 2003: -1.8 43.81 40.86 38.51 -2.95 -2.35 Dec 30, 2003: 0.9 34.51 36.45 36.57 1.94 0.12 : Mar 26, 2004: 1.9 49.13 48.85 45.97 -0.28 -2.88 Jun 25, 2004: 0.8 57.82 59.02 56.91 1.20 -2.11 Sep 24, 2004: 0.9 56.42 59.66 57.66 3.24 -2.00 Dec 28, 2004: 0.0 45.61 46.04 52.60 0.43 6.56 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Slaughter Hogs, Iowa, Southern Minnesota base lean prices, converted to Live price starting April 2001, Source: Market News, Agriculture Marketing Service. 2/ Change from previous year. Annual Butter Price Reactions to Official Releases -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of and Average Price Changes 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Week Prior to Release : Week After Release :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Increases : Decreases : Increases : Decreases :--------------------------------------------------------------- Marketing: : : : : : : : Year 2/ :Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars : 2000 : 4 0.0824 8 0.0841 6 0.0347 5 0.0382 2001 : 9 0.0465 3 0.0740 10 0.0680 2 0.1925 2002 : 9 0.0241 3 0.0142 4 0.0431 8 0.0202 2003 : 7 0.0329 5 0.0172 5 0.0092 7 0.0264 2004 : 8 0.0895 4 0.1170 4 0.0119 7 0.0837 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Daily closing cash butter prices during the week. Total increases and Decreases may not add to twelve for a year when the week-to-week price Is unchanged. 2/ Marketing year represents the January-December calendar year. Monthly Butter Price Reactions to Official Releases --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average Price 1/ : : : :-----------------------------: : : : : : : Change From : : : : :------------------- : : : : : Week : Week of : : : : :Before to: Release Release :Production: Week : Week of : Week : Week of : to Week Date : Change2/ : Prior : Release : After : Release : After --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------------------- Dollars ------------------- : Jan 16, 2004 : -0.3 1.3925 1.3967 1.4125 0.0042 0.0158 Feb 17, 2004 : -0.9 1.6608 1.8100 1.8183 0.1492 0.0083 Mar 16, 20043/: 1.7 2.1217 2.2108 2.2333 0.0892 0.0225 Apr 16, 2004 : -1.8 2.1353 2.3425 2.3067 0.2063 -0.0358 May 17, 2004 : -0.9 2.0875 2.0608 1.8450 -0.0267 -0.2158 Jun 16, 2004 : -0.1 1.9350 2.0533 1.8925 0.1183 -0.1608 Jul 16, 2004 : -0.2 1.8613 1.7408 1.6692 -0.1204 -0.0717 Aug 16, 2004 : 0.7 1.5175 1.5425 1.5425 0.0250 0.0000 Sep 17, 2004 : 1.5 1.7475 1.7792 1.7800 0.0317 0.0008 Oct 15, 2004 : 1.3 1.6883 1.6842 1.6300 -0.0042 -0.0542 Nov 16, 2004 : 1.3 1.9800 2.0725 2.0400 0.0925 -0.0325 Dec 17, 2004 : 1.2 1.8667 1.5500 1.5350 -0.3167 -0.0150 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Daily closing cash butter prices during the week. 2/ Percent change from previous year. 3/ Leap Year. Production was down 2.1 percent on a per day basis. Annual Barrel Cheddar Cheese Price Reactions to Official Releases -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of and Average Price Changes 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Week Prior to Release : Week After Release :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Increases : Decreases : Increases : Decreases :--------------------------------------------------------------- Marketing: : : : : : : : Year 2/ :Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars : 2000 : 7 0.0191 5 0.0130 9 0.0229 2 0.0088 2001 : 10 0.0150 2 0.0556 7 0.0342 4 0.0234 2002 : 7 0.0191 5 0.0175 6 0.0131 6 0.0203 2003 : 5 0.0180 6 0.0264 3 0.0303 9 0.0176 2004 : 7 0.0879 4 0.0949 8 0.0461 3 0.0547 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Daily closing cash 500 pound barrel cheddar cheese prices during the Week. Total increases and decreases may not add to twelve for a year When the week-to-week price is unchanged. 2/ Marketing year represents the January-December calendar year. Monthly Barrel Cheddar Cheese Price Reactions to Official Releases ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average Price 1/ : : : :------------------------------: : : : : : : Change From : : : : :------------------- : : : : : Week : Week of : : : : :Before to: Release Release :Production: Week : Week of : Week : Week of : to Week Date : Change2/ : Prior : Release : After : Release : After ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------------------- Dollars ------------------- : Jan 16, 2004 : -0.3 1.2510 1.2550 1.2550 0.0040 0.0000 Feb 17, 2004 : -0.9 1.3170 1.3913 1.4435 0.0743 0.0522 Mar 16, 2004 : 1.7 1.6365 1.9305 1.9995 0.2940 0.0690 Apr 16, 2004 : -1.8 2.0938 2.1400 2.1605 0.0463 0.0205 May 17, 2004 : -0.9 1.9110 1.7860 1.7700 -0.1250 -0.0160 Jun 16, 2004 : -0.1 1.7700 1.7700 1.6270 0.0000 -0.1430 Jul 16, 2004 : -0.2 1.3638 1.4030 1.4460 0.0393 0.0430 Aug 16, 2004 : 0.7 1.5100 1.5680 1.5880 0.0580 0.0200 Sep 17, 2004 : 1.5 1.5319 1.5145 1.5095 -0.0174 -0.0050 Oct 15, 2004 : 1.3 1.4255 1.4219 1.5150 -0.0036 0.0931 Nov 16, 2004 : 1.3 1.6030 1.7025 1.7600 0.0995 0.0575 Dec 17, 2004 : 1.2 1.6825 1.3950 1.4088 -0.2335 0.0137 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Daily closing cash 500 pound barrel cheddar cheese prices during the Week. 2/ Percent change from previous year. Annual Block Cheddar Cheese Price Reactions to Official Releases -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of and Average Price Changes 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Week Prior to Release : Week After Release :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Increases : Decreases : Increases : Decreases :--------------------------------------------------------------- Marketing: : : : : : : : Year 2/ :Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars : 2000 : 4 0.0589 8 0.0071 6 0.0254 6 0.0091 2001 : 9 0.0284 3 0.0554 10 0.0333 2 0.0308 2002 : 5 0.0379 7 0.0201 7 0.0211 5 0.0443 2002 : 3 0.0267 5 0.0206 5 0.0150 3 0.0395 2004 : 7 0.1004 3 0.1313 7 0.1004 4 0.0788 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Daily closing cash 40 pound block cheddar cheese prices during the Week. Total increases and decreases may not add to twelve for a year When the week-to-week price is unchanged. 2/ Marketing year represents the January-December calendar year. Monthly Block Cheddar Cheese Price Reactions to Official Releases ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average Price 1/ : : : :------------------------------: : : : : : : Change From : : : : :------------------- : : : : : Week : Week of : : : : :Before to: Release Release :Production: Week : Week of : Week : Week of : to Week Date : Change2/ : Prior : Release : After : Release : After ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------------------- Dollars ------------------- : Jan 16, 2004 : -0.3 1.3035 1.3050 1.3013 0.0015 -0.0037 Feb 17, 2004 : -0.9 1.3545 1.4275 1.4725 0.0730 0.0450 Mar 16, 20043/: 1.7 1.6485 1.9525 2.0235 0.3040 0.0710 Apr 16, 2004 : -1.8 2.1219 2.1800 2.2000 0.0581 0.0200 May 17, 2004 : -0.9 2.0600 1.9600 1.8000 -0.1000 -0.1600 Jun 16, 2004 : -0.1 1.8000 1.8000 1.6520 0.0000 -0.1480 Jul 16, 2004 : -0.2 1.3625 1.4360 1.4780 0.0735 0.0420 Aug 16, 2004 : 0.7 1.5440 1.6055 1.6020 0.0615 -0.0035 Sep 17, 2004 : 1.5 1.5675 1.5675 1.5675 0.0000 0.0000 Oct 15, 2004 : 1.3 1.4825 1.4750 1.5475 -0.0075 0.0725 Nov 16, 2004 : 1.3 1.6330 1.7645 1.8083 0.1315 0.0438 Dec 17, 2004 : 1.2 1.7230 1.4365 1.4838 -0.2865 0.0472 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Daily closing cash 40 pound block cheddar cheese prices prices during The week. 2/ Percent change from previous year. 3/ Leap Year. 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