Pr Rc 2 (3-06) Price Reactions After USDA Livestock Reports National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 30, 2006, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Price Reactions After USDA Livestock Reports" call William Weaver at (202) 720-3570, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. This report contains annual average and monthly cattle price reactions to the USDA "Cattle on Feed" reports. Monthly "Cattle on Feed" reports publish on-feed inventory, fed cattle marketings, and feeder cattle placements. Also in this report are hog price reactions to the USDA "Quarterly Hogs and Pigs" reports. Each year quarterly hog and pig inventory, sows farrowing, and pig crop estimates are published in March, June, September, and December along with 3-month and 6-month farrowing intentions. The prices in this report for Cattle and Hogs represent sales from producers to first buyers at major markets as reported by the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). These prices are published for the day before each report and for the day and week after each report. The price reaction after the "Hogs and Pigs" and "Cattle on Feed" reports is indicated by the difference between the price for the day before each report and the day or week after each report. This publication also shows the dairy products price reactions to the USDA monthly "Milk Production" reports. The number of milk cows, milk per cow and total milk production are published each month for the 23 major milk producing States. The butter and cheddar cheese prices in this report are based on the daily cash settlement prices reported by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Weekly average prices were computed for the week before and week after each monthly "Milk Production" report. Annual Cattle Price Reactions to Official Releases -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of and Average Price Changes 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Week Prior to Release : Week After Release :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Increases : Decreases : Increases : Decreases :--------------------------------------------------------------- Marketing: : : : : : : : Year 2/ :Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars : 1995 : 5 0.85 6 1.48 4 0.71 8 0.79 1996 : 4 1.17 8 1.51 3 0.72 8 1.22 1997 : 5 1.30 7 0.79 5 1.19 7 0.74 1998 : 6 1.53 6 1.20 3 0.98 9 1.12 1999 : 9 0.73 3 1.11 5 0.38 7 0.50 2000 : 8 0.76 4 0.69 7 0.78 5 1.08 2001 : 5 0.84 7 1.78 5 1.87 7 1.47 2002 : 9 1.24 3 1.40 5 1.14 7 1.68 2003 : 5 3.73 7 2.41 5 1.90 7 3.24 2004 : 9 1.73 3 1.85 5 4.07 7 1.83 2005 : 2 1.65 10 1.43 5 1.01 7 1.28 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the weekly weighted average price for live steers and heifers from feedlots in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Iowa, and Southern Minnesota. Total increases and decreases may not add to twelve for a year when the week-to-week price does not change. Source: Market News, Agriculture Marketing Service. 2/ Marketing year represents the January-December calendar year. Monthly Cattle Price Reactions to Official Releases --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average Price 1/ : : : :-------------------------------: : : : : : : Change From : : : : :------------------- : : : : : Week : Week of : : : : :Before to: Release Release :Inventory : Week : Week of : Week : Week of : to Week Date : Change2/ : Prior : Release : After : Release : After --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------------------- Dollars ------------------- : Jan 21, 2005: 0.5 91.59 89.55 88.37 -2.04 -1.18 Feb 18, 2005: 2 89.58 87.77 86.79 -1.81 -0.98 Mar 18, 2005: 2 92.98 90.18 90.20 -2.80 0.02 Apr 22, 2005: 1 91.92 93.90 92.63 1.98 -1.27 May 20, 2005: 3 90.09 88.81 86.84 -1.28 -1.97 Jun 17, 2005: 1 85.57 83.60 82.13 -1.97 -1.47 Jul 22, 2005: 3 80.17 79.04 79.57 -1.13 0.53 Aug 19, 2005: 2 79.59 79.07 81.76 -0.52 2.69 Sep 23, 2005: 0.1 86.27 86.06 86.87 -0.21 0.81 Oct 21, 2005: -0.2 88.75 87.58 87.26 -1.17 -0.32 Nov 18, 2005: 1 91.30 89.97 90.97 -1.33 1.00 Dec 23, 2005: 3 94.46 95.77 93.98 1.31 -1.79 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the weekly weighted average prices per cwt. for live steers and heifers from feedlots in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Iowa, and Southern Minnesota. Source: Market News, Agriculture Marketing Service. 2/ Change from previous year. Annual Hog Price Reactions to Official Releases -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of and Average Price Changes 1/2/3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Week Prior to Release : Week After Release :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Increases : Decreases : Increases : Decreases :--------------------------------------------------------------- Marketing: : : : : : : : Year4/ :Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars : 1995 : 1 7.60 3 -0.86 1 0.47 3 -2.09 1996 : 1 1.71 3 -0.40 3 1.44 1 -2.53 1997 : 2 2.42 2 -1.59 4 0.76 0 0.00 1998 : 1 0.50 3 -0.96 1 1.26 3 -1.67 1999 : 4 2.52 0 0.00 2 2.37 2 -3.64 2000 : 2 1.70 2 -1.31 3 1.98 1 -2.97 2001 : 0 0.00 4 -0.57 1 1.31 3 -0.68 2002 : 3 0.79 1 -0.89 3 1.15 1 -2.92 2003 : 1 1.24 3 -2.66 0 0.00 4 -1.13 2004 : 3 2.13 1 -0.28 1 0.12 3 -2.33 2005 : 3 0.38 1 -1.85 1 6.56 3 -1.05 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Barrows and Gilts, 5 markets combined. 2/ Slaughter Hogs, Iowa, Southern Minnesota starting in December 1998 to April 2001. Source: Market News, Agriculture Marketing Service. 3/ Slaughter Hogs, Iowa, Southern Minnesota base lean prices, converted to live price starting April 2001, Source: Market News, Agriculture Marketing Service. 4/ Marketing year represents December of the previous year through November of current year. Annual average prices are based on December-September prices. Quarterly Hog Price Reactions to Official Releases, 2004-2005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average Price 1/ : : : :-------------------------------: : : : : : : Change From : : : : :------------------- : : : : : Week : Week of : : : : :Before to: Release Release :Inventory : Week : Week of : Week : Week of : to Week Date :Change 2/ : Prior : Release : After : Release : After --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------------------- Dollars ------------------- : Mar 26, 2004: 2.3 49.13 48.85 45.97 -0.28 -2.88 Jun 25, 2004: 1.8 57.82 59.02 56.91 1.20 -2.11 Sep 24, 2004: 0.8 56.42 59.66 57.66 3.24 -2.00 Dec 28, 2004: 0.9 45.61 46.04 52.60 0.43 6.56 : Mar 24, 2005: 0.3 49.35 49.51 48.61 0.16 -0.90 Jun 24, 2005: 0.1 51.41 49.56 47.66 -1.85 -1.90 Sep 30, 2005: 0.2 49.80 50.35 50.01 0.55 -0.34 Dec 28, 2005: 0.4 43.31 42.46 42.06 -0.85 -0.40 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Slaughter Hogs, Iowa, Southern Minnesota base lean prices, converted to live price starting April 2001, Source: Market News, Agriculture Marketing Service. 2/ Change from previous year. Annual Butter Price Reactions to Official Releases -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of and Average Price Changes 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Week Prior to Release : Week After Release :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Increases : Decreases : Increases : Decreases :--------------------------------------------------------------- Marketing: : : : : : : : Year 2/ :Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars : 2001 : 9 0.0465 3 0.0740 10 0.0680 2 0.1925 2002 : 9 0.0241 3 0.0142 4 0.0431 8 0.2020 2003 : 7 0.0329 5 0.0172 5 0.0092 7 0.0264 2004 : 8 0.0895 4 0.1170 4 0.0119 7 0.0837 2005 : 6 0.0408 5 0.0260 4 0.0340 8 0.0319 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash butter prices during the week. Total increases and decreases may not add to twelve for a year when the week-to-week price is unchanged. 2/ Marketing year represents the January-December calendar year. Monthly Butter Price Reactions to Official Releases --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average Price 1/ : : : :-----------------------------: : : : : : : Change From : : : : :------------------- : : : : : Week : Week of : : : : :Before to: Release Release :Production: Week : Week of : Week : Week of : to Week Date : Change2/ : Prior : Release : After : Release : After --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------------------- Dollars ------------------- : Jan 18, 2005 : 1.0 1.6075 1.5525 1.5517 -0.0550 -0.0008 Feb 17, 2005 : 1.3 1.6142 1.6158 1.6025 0.0017 -0.0133 Mar 16, 2005 : -0.7 1.5233 1.5825 1.5000 0.0592 -0.0325 Apr 15, 2005 : 3.1 1.5575 1.5217 1.4658 -0.0358 -0.0558 May 17, 2005 : 3.2 1.3817 1.4408 1.4150 0.0592 -0.0258 Jun 16, 2005 : 4.4 1.4392 1.4958 1.6075 0.0567 0.1117 Jul 18, 2005 : 5.4 1.6275 1.5950 1.6008 -0.0325 0.0580 Aug 16, 2005 : 4.2 1.6933 1.6883 1.6958 -0.0050 0.0075 Sep 16, 2005 : 4.6 1.6900 1.7150 1.7258 0.0250 0.0108 Oct 17, 2005 : 4.9 1.6375 1.6358 1.5925 -0.0017 -0.0433 Nov 16, 2005 : 4.1 1.4050 1.4483 1.4013 0.0433 -0.0471 Dec 16, 2005 : 4.6 1.3700 1.3700 1.3333 0.0000 -0.0367 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash butter prices during the week. 2/ Percent change from previous year. Annual Barrel Cheddar Cheese Price Reactions to Official Releases -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of and Average Price Changes 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Week Prior to Release : Week After Release :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Increases : Decreases : Increases : Decreases :--------------------------------------------------------------- Marketing: : : : : : : : Year 2/ :Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars : 2001 : 10 0.0150 2 0.0556 7 0.0342 4 0.0234 2002 : 7 0.0191 5 0.0175 6 0.0131 6 0.0203 2003 : 5 0.0180 6 0.0264 3 0.0303 9 0.0176 2004 : 7 0.0879 4 0.0949 8 0.0461 3 0.0547 2005 : 8 0.0563 4 0.0389 9 0.0324 3 0.0550 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash 500 pound barrel cheddar cheese prices during the week. Total increases and decreases may not add to twelve for a year when the week-to-week price is unchanged. 2/ Marketing year represents the January-December calendar year. Monthly Barrel Cheddar Cheese Price Reactions to Official Releases ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average Price 1/ : : : :------------------------------: : : : : : : Change From : : : : :------------------- : : : : : Week : Week of : : : : :Before to: Release Release :Production: Week : Week of : Week : Week of : to Week Date : Change2/ : Prior : Release : After : Release : After ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------------------- Dollars ------------------- : Jan 18, 2005 : 1.0 1.5080 1.6675 1.7105 0.1595 0.0430 Feb 17, 2005 : 1.3 1.4000 1.3860 1.4756 -0.0140 0.0896 Mar 16, 2005 : -0.7 1.4200 1.4410 1.5069 0.0210 0.0659 Apr 15, 2005 : 3.1 1.5530 1.5100 1.4510 -0.0430 -0.0590 May 17, 2005 : 3.2 1.3890 1.5080 1.4190 0.1190 -0.0890 Jun 16, 2005 : 4.4 1.4555 1.4390 1.4510 -0.0165 0.0120 Jul 18, 2005 : 5.4 1.5085 1.4265 1.4280 -0.0820 0.0015 Aug 16, 2005 : 4.2 1.3600 1.4495 1.4800 0.0895 0.0305 Sep 16, 2005 : 4.6 1.4900 1.5075 1.5105 0.0175 0.0030 Oct 17, 2005 : 4.9 1.3745 1.4140 1.3970 0.0395 -0.0170 Nov 16, 2005 : 4.1 1.3230 1.3250 1.3467 0.0020 0.0217 Dec 16, 2005 : 4.6 1.3935 1.3960 1.4200 0.0025 0.0240 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash 500 pound barrel cheddar cheese prices during the week. 2/ Percent change from previous year. Annual Block Cheddar Cheese Price Reactions to Official Releases -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of and Average Price Changes 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Week Prior to Release : Week After Release :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Increases : Decreases : Increases : Decreases :--------------------------------------------------------------- Marketing: : : : : : : : Year 2/ :Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars : 2001 : 9 0.0284 3 0.0554 10 0.0333 2 0.0308 2002 : 5 0.0379 7 0.0201 7 0.0211 5 0.0443 2003 : 3 0.0267 5 0.0206 5 0.0150 3 0.0395 2004 : 7 0.1004 3 0.1313 7 0.0488 4 0.0788 2005 : 8 0.0471 4 0.0290 8 0.0437 4 0.0424 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash 40 pound block cheddar cheese prices during the week. Total increases and decreases may not add to twelve for a year when the week-to-week price is unchanged. 2/ Marketing year represents the January-December calendar year. Monthly Block Cheddar Cheese Price Reactions to Official Releases ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average Price 1/ : : : :------------------------------: : : : : : : Change From : : : : :------------------- : : : : : Week : Week of : : : : :Before to: Release Release :Production: Week : Week of : Week : Week of : to Week Date : Change2/ : Prior : Release : After : Release : After ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------------------- Dollars ------------------- : Jan 18, 2005 : 1.00 1.5685 1.7006 1.7490 0.1321 0.0484 Feb 17, 2005 : 1.30 1.4340 1.4335 1.5419 -0.0005 0.0184 Mar 16, 2005 : -0.70 1.4615 1.4740 1.5413 0.0125 0.0673 Apr 15, 2005 : 3.10 1.5950 1.5740 1.5295 -0.0210 -0.0445 May 17, 2005 : 3.20 1.4440 1.5570 1.4610 0.1130 -0.0960 Jun 16, 2005 : 4.40 1.4980 1.4890 1.5030 -0.0090 0.0140 Jul 18, 2005 : 5.40 1.5500 1.4645 1.4500 -0.0855 -0.0145 Aug 16, 2005 : 4.20 1.3830 1.4475 1.4625 0.0645 0.0150 Sep 16, 2005 : 4.60 1.5081 1.5249 1.5950 0.0168 0.0701 Oct 17, 2005 : 4.90 1.4295 1.4645 1.4500 0.0350 -0.0145 Nov 16, 2005 : 4.10 1.3700 1.3710 1.3758 0.0010 0.0048 Dec 16, 2005 : 4.60 1.4290 1.4310 1.4525 0.0020 0.0215 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash 40 pound block cheddar cheese prices prices during the week. 2/ Percent change from previous year. 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