Pr Rc 2 (3-09) Price Reactions After USDA Livestock Reports National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 27, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Price Reactions After USDA Livestock Reports" call Scott Hollis at (202) 720-3570, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. This report contains price reactions to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Cattle on Feed, Quarterly Hogs and Pigs, and Milk Production reports. The USDA Cattle on Feed report is released monthly and publishes on-feed inventory, fed cattle marketings, and feeder cattle placements. Annual average price reactions to the Cattle on Feed reports are provided in this publication using prices data from the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Market News reports. The USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs reports are published each year in March, June, September, and December and provide data on hog and pig inventory, sows farrowing, pig crop estimates, and 3-month and 6-month farrowing intentions. Annual average price reactions to the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs reports are provided in this publication using prices data from the AMS Market News reports. The AMS prices used in this report for cattle and hogs represent sales from producers to first buyers at major markets. The price reaction to the Cattle on Feed and Quarterly Hogs and Pigs reports is indicated by the difference between the price the week prior and the week after each report. The Milk Production report is released monthly and provides data on the number of milk cows, milk per cow and total milk production for the 23 major milk producing States. Dairy products price reactions to the USDA Milk Production reports are also provided in this publication. The butter and cheddar cheese prices in this publication are based on the daily cash settlement prices reported by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Weekly average prices are computed for the week before and the week after the release of each Milk Production report. Annual Cattle Price Reactions to Cattle on Feed Releases -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of and Average Price Changes 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Week Prior to Release : Week After Release :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Increases : Decreases : Increases : Decreases :--------------------------------------------------------------- Marketing : : : : : : : : Year 2/ :Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars : 1998 : 6 1.53 6 1.20 3 0.98 9 1.12 1999 : 9 0.73 3 1.11 5 0.38 7 0.50 2000 : 8 0.76 4 0.69 7 0.78 5 1.08 2001 : 5 0.84 7 1.78 5 1.87 7 1.47 2002 : 9 1.24 3 1.40 5 1.14 7 1.68 2003 : 5 3.73 7 2.41 5 1.90 7 3.24 2004 : 9 1.73 3 1.85 5 4.07 7 1.83 2005 : 2 1.65 10 1.43 5 1.01 7 1.28 2006 : 9 0.96 3 1.26 7 1.76 5 1.61 2007 : 5 0.78 7 1.36 8 1.67 4 1.51 2008 : 6 0.95 6 1.81 9 1.57 3 1.03 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on the weekly weighted average prices per cwt. for live steers and heifers from feedlots in Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Iowa, and Minnesota. Total increases and decreases may not add to twelve for a year when the week-to-week price does not change. Source: Market News, Agricultural Marketing Service. 2/ Marketing year represents the January-December calendar year. Monthly Cattle Price Reactions to Cattle on Feed Releases --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average Price 1/ : : : :-------------------------------: : : : : : : Change From : : : : :------------------- : : : : : Week : Week of : : : : :Before to: Release Release :Inventory : Week : Week of : Week : Week of : to Week Date : Change2/ : Prior : Release : After : Release : After --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------------------- Dollars ------------------- : Jan 25, 2008: 1 90.14 90.44 89.56 0.30 -0.88 Feb 22, 2008: 2 91.00 91.58 93.01 0.58 1.43 Mar 20, 2008: 2 89.85 89.86 87.92 0.01 -1.94 Apr 18, 2008: 0.3 87.20 90.00 92.14 2.80 2.14 May 16, 2008: -1 93.84 94.02 94.39 0.18 0.37 Jun 20, 2008: -4 93.13 94.94 98.30 1.81 3.36 Jul 25, 2008: -4 97.23 94.79 97.09 -2.44 2.30 Aug 22, 2008: -4 99.74 98.72 98.88 -1.02 0.16 Sep 19, 2008: -3 98.32 98.23 97.95 -0.09 -0.28 Oct 17, 2008: -5 91.30 89.27 89.81 -2.03 0.54 Nov 21, 2008: -7 92.38 87.25 89.81 -5.13 2.56 Dec 19, 2008: -6 83.97 83.83 85.08 -0.14 1.25 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on the weekly weighted average prices per cwt. for live steers and heifers from feedlots in Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Iowa, and Minnesota. Total increases and decreases may not add to twelve for a year when the week-to-week price does not change. Source: Market News, Agricultural Marketing Service. 2/ Change from previous year. Annual Hog Price Reactions to Hogs and Pigs Releases -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of and Average Price Changes 1/ 2/ 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Week Prior to Release : Week After Release :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Increases : Decreases : Increases : Decreases :--------------------------------------------------------------- Marketing: : : : : : : : Year 4/ :Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars : 1998 : 1 0.50 3 0.96 1 1.26 3 1.67 1999 : 4 2.52 0 0.00 2 2.37 2 3.64 2000 : 2 1.70 2 1.31 3 1.98 1 2.97 2001 : 0 0.00 4 0.57 1 1.31 3 0.68 2002 : 3 0.79 1 0.89 3 1.15 1 2.92 2003 : 1 1.24 3 2.66 0 0.00 4 1.13 2004 : 3 2.13 1 0.28 1 0.12 3 2.33 2005 : 3 0.38 1 1.85 1 6.56 3 1.05 2006 : 0 0.00 4 2.52 1 3.15 3 1.10 2007 : 2 1.85 2 2.87 1 1.45 3 2.78 2008 : 3 1.78 1 1.28 1 0.90 3 1.33 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Barrows and Gilts, 5 markets combined. 2/ Slaughter Hogs, Iowa, Southern Minnesota starting in December 1998 to April 2001. Source: Market News, Agricultural Marketing Service. 3/ Slaughter Hogs, Iowa, Southern Minnesota base lean prices, converted to live price starting April 2001. Source: Market News, Agricultural Marketing Service. 4/ Marketing year represents December of the previous year through November of current year. Quarterly Hog Price Reactions to Hogs and Pigs Releases, 2007-2008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average Price 1/ : : : :-------------------------------: : : : : : : Change From : : : : :------------------- : : : : : Week : Week of : : : : :Before to: Release Release :Inventory : Week : Week of : Week : Week of : to Week Date :Change 2/ : Prior : Release : After : Release : After --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------------------- Dollars ------------------- : Mar 30, 2007: 1.3 42.42 43.33 44.78 0.91 1.45 Jun 29, 2007: 1.7 56.14 53.68 51.04 -2.46 -2.64 Sep 28, 2007: 2.8 46.86 43.58 41.70 -3.28 -1.88 Dec 27, 2007: 4.2 38.19 36.91 35.83 -1.28 -1.08 : Mar 28, 2008: 6.5 37.01 38.54 39.44 1.53 0.90 Jun 27, 2008: 5.8 53.58 54.60 52.52 1.02 -2.08 Sep 26, 2008: 2.0 50.04 52.83 52.01 2.79 -0.82 Dec 30, 2008: -2.2 37.07 37.28 40.57 0.21 3.29 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Slaughter Hogs, Iowa, Southern Minnesota base lean prices, converted to live price. Source: Market News, Agricultural Marketing Service. 2/ Change from previous year. Annual Butter Price Reactions to Milk Production Releases --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of and Average Price Changes 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Week Prior to Release : Week After Release :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Increases : Decreases : Increases : Decreases :--------------------------------------------------------------- Marketing : : : : : : : : Year 2/ :Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars : 2004 : 8 0.0895 4 0.1170 4 0.0119 7 0.0837 2005 : 6 0.0408 5 0.0260 4 0.0340 8 0.0319 2006 : 7 0.0105 5 0.0139 3 0.0348 8 0.0292 2007 : 5 0.2200 7 0.0171 7 0.0228 5 0.0135 2008 : 9 0.1787 3 0.0185 5 0.0226 6 0.0307 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash butter prices during the week. Total increases and decreases may not add to twelve for a year when the week-to-week price is unchanged. 2/ Marketing year represents the January-December calendar year. Monthly Butter Price Reactions to Milk Production Releases --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average Price 1/ : : : :-----------------------------: : : : : : : Change From : : : : :------------------- : : : : : Week : Week of : : : : :Before to: Release Release :Production: Week : Week of : Week : Week of : to Week Date : Change2/ : Prior : Release : After : Release : After --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------------------- Dollars ------------------- : Jan 18, 2008 : 3.1 1.2175 1.2200 1.2300 0.0025 0.0100 Feb 15, 2008 : 2.4 1.2215 1.2020 1.1863 -0.0195 -0.0157 Mar 17, 2008 : 6.0 1.3365 1.3638 1.3675 0.0273 0.0037 Apr 18, 2008 : 2.4 1.3800 1.3890 1.4030 0.0090 0.0140 May 19, 2008 : 2.5 1.4880 1.4950 1.4750 0.0070 -0.0200 Jun 18, 2008 : 3.4 1.4730 1.4935 1.5315 0.0205 0.0380 Jul 18, 2008 : 3.4 1.5340 1.5360 1.5360 0.0020 0.0000 Aug 18, 2008 : 1.7 1.6400 1.6230 1.6075 -0.0170 -0.0155 Sep 18, 2008 : 1.5 1.6600 1.6920 1.7395 0.0320 0.0475 Oct 17, 2008 : 1.9 1.6980 1.7500 1.7480 0.0520 -0.0020 Nov 17, 2008 : 1.5 1.6350 1.6160 1.5342 -0.0190 -0.0818 Dec 18, 2008 : 1.4 1.1875 1.1960 1.1467 0.0085 -0.0493 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash butter prices during the week. 2/ Percent change from previous year. Annual Barrel Cheddar Cheese Price Reactions to Milk Production Releases -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of and Average Price Changes 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Week Prior to Release : Week After Release :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Increases : Decreases : Increases : Decreases :--------------------------------------------------------------- Marketing: : : : : : : : Year 2/ :Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars : 2004 : 7 0.0879 4 0.0949 8 0.0461 3 0.0547 2005 : 8 0.0563 4 0.0389 9 0.0324 3 0.0550 2006 : 8 0.0337 4 0.0116 6 0.0118 5 0.0323 2007 : 6 0.0904 6 0.0260 3 0.0458 9 0.0462 2008 : 7 0.0733 5 0.1247 7 0.0503 5 0.0686 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash 500 pound barrel cheddar cheese prices during the week. Total increases and decreases may not add to twelve for a year when the week-to-week price is unchanged. 2/ Marketing year represents the January-December calendar year. Monthly Barrel Cheddar Cheese Price Reactions to Milk Production Releases ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average Price 1/ : : : :------------------------------: : : : : : : Change From : : : : :------------------- : : : : : Week : Week of : : : : :Before to: Release Release :Production: Week : Week of : Week : Week of : to Week Date : Change2/ : Prior : Release : After : Release : After ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------------------- Dollars ------------------- : Jan 18, 2008 : 3.1 2.0160 1.8495 1.7763 -0.1665 -0.0732 Feb 15, 2008 : 2.4 1.8950 1.9485 2.0200 0.0535 0.0715 Mar 17, 2008 : 6.0 1.7670 1.7313 1.7630 -0.0357 0.0317 Apr 18, 2008 : 2.4 1.7435 1.7780 1.8720 0.0345 0.0940 May 19, 2008 : 2.5 2.0205 2.1650 2.2250 0.1445 0.0600 Jun 18, 2008 : 3.4 2.1500 1.9900 1.9360 -0.1600 -0.0540 Jul 18, 2008 : 3.4 1.8480 1.9180 1.9385 0.0700 0.0205 Aug 18, 2008 : 1.7 1.7330 1.6695 1.6540 -0.0635 -0.0155 Sep 18, 2008 : 1.5 1.8295 1.9155 1.9485 0.0860 0.0330 Oct 17, 2008 : 1.9 1.8155 1.8920 1.8170 0.0765 -0.0750 Nov 17, 2008 : 1.5 1.6780 1.7260 1.7675 0.0480 0.0415 Dec 18, 2008 : 1.4 1.6575 1.4595 1.3342 -0.1980 -0.1253 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash 500 pound barrel cheddar cheese prices during the week. 2/ Percent change from previous year. Annual Block Cheddar Cheese Price Reactions to Milk Production Releases -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of and Average Price Changes 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Week Prior to Release : Week After Release :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Increases : Decreases : Increases : Decreases :--------------------------------------------------------------- Marketing: : : : : : : : Year 2/ :Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars : 2004 : 7 0.1004 3 0.1313 7 0.0488 4 0.0788 2005 : 8 0.0471 4 0.0290 8 0.0437 4 0.0424 2006 : 8 0.0288 2 0.0183 7 0.0116 5 0.0360 2007 : 6 0.0769 6 0.0379 3 0.0532 9 0.0565 2008 : 7 0.0611 5 0.1361 7 0.0543 5 0.0755 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash 40 pound block cheddar cheese prices during the week. Total increases and decreases may not add to twelve for a year when the week-to-week price is unchanged. 2/ Marketing year represents the January-December calendar year. Monthly Block Cheddar Cheese Price Reactions to Milk Production Releases ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average Price 1/ : : : :------------------------------: : : : : : : Change From : : : : :------------------- : : : : : Week : Week of : : : : :Before to: Release Release :Production: Week : Week of : Week : Week of : to Week Date : Change2/ : Prior : Release : After : Release : After ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------------------- Dollars ------------------- : Jan 18, 2008 : 3.1 1.9680 1.7405 1.6500 -0.2275 -0.0905 Feb 15, 2008 : 2.4 1.9305 2.0060 2.0606 0.0755 0.0546 Mar 17, 2008 : 6.0 1.8215 1.7650 1.8005 -0.0565 0.0355 Apr 18, 2008 : 2.4 1.8540 1.8685 1.9415 0.0145 0.0730 May 19, 2008 : 2.5 2.0490 2.2110 2.2525 0.1620 0.0415 Jun 18, 2008 : 3.4 2.0555 1.9960 1.9245 -0.0595 -0.0715 Jul 18, 2008 : 3.4 1.9075 1.9540 2.0470 0.0465 0.0930 Aug 18, 2008 : 1.7 1.7680 1.7155 1.7065 -0.0525 -0.0090 Sep 18, 2008 : 1.5 1.8625 1.9260 1.9680 0.0635 0.0420 Oct 17, 2008 : 1.9 1.8500 1.8700 1.7825 0.0200 -0.0875 Nov 17, 2008 : 1.5 1.7080 1.7535 1.7942 0.0455 0.0407 Dec 18, 2008 : 1.4 1.6845 1.4000 1.2808 -0.2845 -0.1192 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash 40 pound block cheddar cheese prices during the week. 2/ Percent change from previous year. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. Starting with the NASS Home Page at www.nass.usda.gov, under the right navigation, Receive reports by Email, click on National or State. Follow the instructions on the screen. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK: 800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada) Other areas, please call 703-605-6220 FAX: 703-605-6900 (Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ASSISTANCE For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, and where applicable, sex, marital status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, genetic information, political beliefs, reprisal, or because all or a part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA's TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write to USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, or call (800) 795-3272 (voice) or (202) 720-6382 (TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.