HDR1012000110080413951500Potato Stock HDR2012000110080413951500Potato Stock Narrative Released April 13, 1995, by the Agricultural Statistics Board. Potato Stocks Up 6 Percent Potato stocks totaled 123 million cwt on April 1, 1995, up 6 percent from both last year and two years ago. April stocks cover 31 percent of fall potato production in the 15 storage States, the same as a year ago. Disappearance for the season is a record high 277 million cwt of potatoes, 7 percent above last year and 10 percent above 1993. Shrink and loss of 28.7 million cwt was 7 percent above a year ago. Processors used a record high 134 million cwt of potatoes, up 8 percent for the season. March processing totaled 18.1 million cwt of potatoes, up 4 percent from a year earlier. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- For information call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285. Office hours are 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. Pot 1-2 (4-95) HDR2012000110080413951500Fall Potatoes Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1985-94 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1985 : 343,984 235,475 202,800 171,510 138,720 104,540 65,380 1986 : 307,928 209,435 180,915 154,545 128,720 95,090 59,790 1987 : 335,607 225,890 196,760 167,325 138,800 105,905 70,030 1988 : 305,623 206,420 177,750 151,050 124,485 92,585 59,355 1989 : 316,097 202,050 173,550 144,290 116,600 84,320 50,675 1990 : 344,200 225,500 194,460 162,850 134,470 101,150 63,040 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 375,004 249,710 217,800 186,090 154,135 115,970 73,860 1994 : 400,385 263,630 229,350 196,005 163,305 123,285 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, Eight States, 1992-94 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1: Season ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Malheur Co: 1992 : 22,180 29,080 35,710 42,800 50,090 57,090 80,570 1993 : 24,090 30,540 37,150 44,720 53,070 61,440 85,780 1994 : 26,620 34,230 42,330 49,890 57,990 : ME 2/ : 1992 : 1,195 1,630 2,205 2,720 3,390 4,020 5,055 1993 : 1,350 1,720 2,210 2,505 2,890 3,275 4,555 1994 : 1,510 1,840 2,275 2,535 2,975 : WA & OR-Other : 1992 : 26,840 31,550 35,950 41,670 46,530 51,630 63,510 1993 : 28,260 33,350 39,010 45,020 51,290 57,180 70,690 1994 : 28,690 33,500 39,120 46,070 52,900 : Oth Sts 3/ : 1992 : 7,140 9,220 11,265 13,305 15,550 17,555 25,070 1993 : 7,605 9,515 11,605 13,720 16,080 18,705 25,690 1994 : 8,790 12,045 14,605 17,095 19,840 : Total : 1992 : 57,355 71,480 85,130 100,495 115,560 130,295 174,205 1993 : 61,305 75,125 89,975 105,965 123,330 140,600 186,715 1994 : 65,610 81,615 98,330 115,590 133,705 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the state in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MI, MN, ND, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on April 1, 1994-95 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 1993 : Crop of 1994 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Apr 1, : of : Prod : Apr 1, : of : : 1994 : Prod : : 1995 : Prod ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent --- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent : CA : 4,800 1,700 35 4,400 1,800 41 CO : 25,270 8,350 33 25,795 8,400 33 ID : 126,192 52,000 41 134,340 50,500 38 ME : 19,890 5,800 29 17,250 5,200 30 MI : 11,780 1,800 15 12,180 2,500 21 MN : 12,650 3,700 29 17,755 6,100 34 MT : 2,700 1,770 66 3,200 1,950 61 NE : 3,008 420 14 3,888 650 17 NY : Long Island : 1,643 1/30 1,617 1/65 Upstate : 6,050 400 7 6,188 600 10 ND : 21,090 5,200 25 28,200 7,500 27 OH : 1,140 1/ 1,348 1/ OR : 23,103 8,800 38 25,784 10,100 39 PA : 4,600 400 9 3,780 420 11 WA : 88,500 20,000 23 88,920 23,500 26 WI : 22,588 5,600 25 25,740 4,000 16 : Total 15 State: 375,004 115,970 31 400,385 123,285 31 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Combined to prevent possible disclosure of individual operations. HDR2012000110080413951500Potato Stocks Up 6 Percent Narrative Potato Stocks Up 6 Percent April 1, 1995, stocks totaled 123 million cwt, up 6 percent from both last year and two years ago. Stocks made up 31 percent of fall potato production in the 15 storage States, the same as a year ago. Season-to-date disappearance totaled 277 million cwt, 7 percent more than last year. Processor usage of 134 million cwt was up 8 percent from last year. Shrinkage and loss to date was 28.7 million cwt, 7 percent above a year ago. Processing continued to move potatoes at a record pace, accounting for 134 million cwt of potatoes from the 1994 crop, up 8 percent from the same period last year and 16 percent above two years ago. March processor usage was 18.1 million cwt, up 4 percent from a year ago and 20 percent above two years ago. Disappearance from the start of harvest through March totaled 277 million cwt of potatoes, up 7 percent from last year and 10 percent above two years ago. Shrinkage and loss was 28.7 million cwt, 7 percent above the 26.9 million cwt lost last year but 1 percent below the losses of two years ago. Eastern States stored 6.27 million cwt of potatoes on April 1, 1995, down 5 percent from last year but 31 percent above two years ago. Maine's stocks were down 10 percent. Pennsylvania was up 5 percent. New York, Upstate was up 50 percent. Central States held 20.8 million cwt of potato storage on April 1, 1995. This is 24 percent above last year's rain devastated crop and 1 percent higher than two years ago. Wisconsin's stocks are off 29 percent but each of the other Central States held more than a year ago. North Dakota's stocks were up 44 percent from last year, Minnesota was up 65 percent, and Michigan's stocks were up 39 percent from a year ago. Nebraska was up 55 percent, with late seed movement the reason. Western States potato stocks totaled 96.3 million cwt in six States, up 4 percent from last year and 12 percent above two years ago. Idaho's stocks were down 3 percent, while Colorado was up 1 percent from last year. Washington's stocks of 23.5 million cwt, were up 18 percent and Oregon's stocks jumped 15 percent. Montana's stocks were up 10 percent and California gained 6 percent from a year ago. HDR2012000110080413951500Reliability Reliability of April 1 Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 stocks estimate is 5.8 percent. This means that the chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 123 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 5.8 percent or approximately 7.2 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 10.0 percent or approximately 12.3 million cwt. The 10-year (1985-94) record of the differences between the April 1 stocks estimate and the final estimates averaged 4.2 million cwt, ranging from .01 million cwt to 12.8 million cwt. During this 10-year period, the April 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 9 out of 10 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final April Stocks, United States, 1984-94 Crop Year ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1984 : 85,425 98.8 86,440 1985 : 102,590 98.1 104,540 1986 : 91,670 96.4 95,090 1987 : 105,895 100.0 105,905 1988 : 86,745 93.7 92,585 1989 : 83,540 99.1 84,320 1990 : 91,910 90.9 101,150 1991 : 109,600 100.7 108,865 1992 : 103,010 89.0 115,785 1993 : 108,455 93.5 115,970 1994 : 123,285 -- -- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ As reported in the September "Potatoes" Annual report. Note: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur ofter the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.5 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaininq 9.5 precent. Most seed for use the following year is on hand, but remains as part of stocks until planted. The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on May 12, 1995. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-5881 (voice) or (202) 720-7808 (TDD). To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C., 20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal employment opportunity employer. Publications may be obtained in hard copy or on diskette by calling the ERS- NASS order desk toll free at 1-800-999-6779 or by mail from ERS-NASS, 341 Victory Drive, Herndon, VA 22070. Bulletins cost $10.00 each for paper products or 3.5" ASCII diskettes. To order bulletins by mail, return this form along with your check payable to ERS- NASS. The bulletins will also be available on Internet through the Mann Library at Cornell University (gopher usda.mannlib.cornell.edu 70) at no charge.