HDR1012000110080514961500POTATO STOCKS Released May 14, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS Information Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV. Lowest May Stocks Since 1991 Potato stocks totaled 72.2 million cwt on May 1, 1996, down 17 percent from last year and 2 percent below two years ago. This is the lowest May 1 potato stocks level since 1991. Disappearance for the season totaled 320 million cwt of potatoes, 1 percent below last year but 6 percent above 1994. Shrink and loss of 30.0 million cwt was 2 percent below a year ago. Processors used a record high 156 million cwt of potatoes, up 1 percent for the season. April processing totaled 16.8 million cwt, down 10 percent from a year earlier. Pot 1-2 (5-96) Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1986-95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1986 : 307,928 209,435 180,915 154,545 128,720 95,090 59,790 1987 : 335,607 225,890 196,760 167,325 138,800 105,905 70,030 1988 : 305,623 206,420 177,750 151,050 124,485 92,585 59,355 1989 : 316,097 202,050 173,550 144,290 116,600 84,320 50,675 1990 : 344,200 225,500 194,460 162,850 134,470 101,150 63,040 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 375,004 249,710 217,800 186,090 154,135 115,970 73,860 1994 : 409,009 271,890 237,560 201,870 168,770 128,825 87,500 1995 : 391,816 252,080 218,970 184,755 152,255 112,925 72,210 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, Eight States, 1993-95 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Malheur Co : 1993 : 24,090 30,540 37,150 44,720 53,070 61,440 85,780 1994 : 26,620 34,230 42,330 49,890 57,990 66,680 90,300 1995 : 27,310 35,040 43,260 51,530 59,060 66,690 : ME 2/ : 1993 : 1,350 1,720 2,210 2,505 2,890 3,275 4,555 1994 : 1,505 1,840 2,265 2,540 2,985 3,330 4,770 1995 : 1,335 1,685 2,200 2,540 3,025 3,465 : WA & OR - Other : 1993 : 28,260 33,350 39,010 45,020 51,290 57,180 70,690 1994 : 28,670 33,480 39,120 46,070 52,940 59,540 76,780 1995 : 30,000 35,170 39,460 45,280 51,730 57,360 : Oth Sts 3/ : 1993 : 7,605 9,515 11,605 13,720 16,080 18,705 25,690 1994 : 9,725 13,110 15,630 18,260 21,115 24,060 32,260 1995 : 12,360 15,330 18,415 21,485 24,910 28,010 : Total : 1993 : 61,305 75,125 89,975 105,965 123,330 140,600 186,715 1994 : 66,520 82,660 99,345 116,760 135,030 153,610 204,110 1995 : 71,005 87,225 103,335 120,835 138,725 155,525 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MI, MN, ND, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on May 1, 1995-96 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 1994 : Crop of 1995 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : May 1, : of : Prod : May 1, : of : : 1995 : Prod : : 1996 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Pct ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Pct : CA : 5,600 1,400 25 5,330 1,200 23 CO : 25,795 6,100 24 23,808 6,200 26 ID : 138,801 39,500 28 131,274 34,500 26 ME : 18,375 2,800 15 17,160 2,800 16 MI : 12,180 1,200 10 16,500 1,200 7 MN : 17,755 4,100 23 20,790 4,500 22 MT : 3,200 350 11 2,940 310 11 NE : 3,996 310 8 3,680 2/220 NY : 7,805 2/105 7,695 200 3 ND : 28,200 4,700 17 25,410 4,500 18 OH : 1,348 2/ 1,404 2/ OR : 27,514 7,000 25 23,760 3,000 13 PA : 3,780 135 4 4,080 180 4 WA : 88,920 17,000 19 80,850 11,500 14 WI : 25,740 2,800 11 27,135 1,900 7 : Total 15 State : 409,009 87,500 21 391,816 72,210 18 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and some seed to plant 1996 potatoes. 1995 crop seed usage total 29.3 million cwt. 2/ Combined to prevent possible disclosure of individual operations. Potato Stocks Down 17 Percent May 1, 1995 stocks totaled 72.2 million cwt, down 17 percent from last year and 2 percent below two years ago. Stocks made up 18 percent of fall potato production in the 15 storage States, down three percentage points from last year. Disappearance was down 1 percent from last year. Processor usage was up 1 percent. Shrinkage and loss was 2 percent below a year ago. Processors accounted for 156 million cwt of potatoes from the 1995 crop, up 1 percent from the same period last year and 11 percent above two years ago. April processor usage was 16.8 million cwt, down 10 percent from a year ago and 3 percent below two years ago. Disappearance from the start of harvest through April totaled 320 million cwt of potatoes, down 1 percent from last year but 6 percent above two years ago. Shrinkage and loss was 30.0 million cwt, 2 percent below the 30.7 million cwt lost last year but 5 percent above the losses of two years ago. Eastern States stored 3.18 million cwt of potatoes on May 1, 1996, up 5 percent from last year but 16 percent below 1994. Maine's stocks were even with last year. Pennsylvania and New York are virtually finished shipping for the season. Central States held 12.3 million cwt of potato in storage on May 1, 1996. This is 6 percent below last year but 42 percent above 1994. Wisconsin's stocks are off 32 percent, Nebraska is off 29 percent, and North Dakota is down 4 percent. Michigan's stocks are the same as last year while Minnesota is up 10 percent. Western States potato stocks totaled 56.7 million cwt in six States, down 21 percent from last year and 8 percent below two years ago. Idaho's stocks of 34.5 million cwt were down 13 percent from a year ago, making up 60 percent of the Western total. Washington's stocks of 11.5 million cwt and Oregon's stocks of 3.0 million cwt, were off 32 and 57 percent, respectively. Colorado's stocks of 6.2 million cwt were 2 percent above last year. Montana's stocks at the end of their seed season were down 11 percent. California's stocks were off 14 percent. Reliability of May 1 Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the May 1 stocks estimate is 8.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 72.2 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 8.6 percent or approximately 6.2 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 14.9 percent or 10.8 million cwt. The 10-year (1986-95) record of differences between the May 1 stocks estimate and the final estimates averaged 4.5 million cwt, ranging from 0.55 million cwt to 11.5 million cwt. During this 10-year period, the May 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 8 out of 10 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final May Stocks, United States, 1985-95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1985 : 63,380 96.9 65,380 1986 : 57,040 95.4 59,790 1987 : 71,640 102.3 70,030 1988 : 54,390 91.6 59,355 1989 : 50,125 98.9 50,675 1990 : 54,400 86.3 63,040 1991 : 70,020 101.3 69,110 1992 : 63,550 84.7 75,040 1993 : 68,060 92.1 73,860 1994 : 81,495 93.1 87,500 1995 : 72,210 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ As reported in the September "Potato" annual report. Note: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 91.0 percent of the total fall production shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaining 9.0 percent. Most seed for use the following year is on hand but remains as part of stocks until planted. The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on December 16, 1996. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-5881 (voice) or (202) 720-7808 (TDD). To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C., 20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). 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