HDR1012000110081223960830Potato Stocks Released December 16, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV. Potato Stocks Up 14 Percent, Fall Production Gains 12 Percent Production of fall potatoes is estimated at a record high 452 million cwt in 1996, up 12 percent from a year ago and 6 percent above comparable 1994 totals. December 1 stocks, at 292 million cwt in the 15 storage States, jumped 14 percent from last year and 7 percent above 1994 on a comparable basis. Disappearance this year was up 10 percent, including a 12 percent gain in processor usage. Pot 1-2 (12-96) Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1987-96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1987 : 335,607 225,890 196,760 167,325 138,800 105,905 70,030 1988 : 305,623 206,420 177,750 151,050 124,485 92,585 59,355 1989 : 316,097 202,050 173,550 144,290 116,600 84,320 50,675 1990 : 344,200 225,500 194,460 162,850 134,470 101,150 63,040 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 375,004 249,710 217,800 186,090 154,135 115,970 73,860 1994 : 408,139 272,290 237,960 201,870 168,050 128,360 87,500 1995 : 392,942 256,310 223,150 188,960 155,720 116,255 76,170 1996 : 441,297 291,650 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, Eight States, 1994-96 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Malheur Co : 1994 : 26,620 34,230 42,330 49,890 57,990 66,680 90,300 1995 : 27,310 35,040 43,260 51,530 59,060 66,690 89,250 1996 : 31,060 : ME 2/ : 1994 : 1,505 1,840 2,265 2,540 2,985 3,330 4,770 1995 : 1,335 1,690 2,180 2,520 3,025 3,465 5,225 1996 : 1,400 : WA & OR - Other : 1994 : 28,670 33,480 39,120 46,070 52,940 59,540 76,780 1995 : 30,000 35,170 39,460 45,280 51,730 57,360 70,250 1996 : 31,650 : Oth Sts 3/ : 1994 : 8,785 12,070 14,605 17,095 19,840 22,595 32,260 1995 : 12,450 15,330 18,415 21,485 24,910 28,010 33,305 1996 : 15,540 : Total : 1994 : 65,580 81,620 98,320 115,595 133,755 152,145 204,110 1995 : 71,095 87,230 103,315 120,815 138,725 155,525 198,030 1996 : 79,650 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MI, MN, ND, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on December 1, 1995-96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 1995 : Crop of 1996 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Dec 1, : of : Prod : Dec 1, : of : : 1995 : Prod : : 1996 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Pct ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Pct : CA : 5,330 4,000 75 4,600 3,600 78 CO : 23,808 18,200 76 28,786 22,800 79 ID : 132,657 96,000 72 139,960 99,000 71 ME : 17,160 13,800 80 21,175 16,900 80 MI : 16,350 9,600 59 13,800 8,000 58 MN : 20,790 13,500 65 24,600 16,500 67 MT : 2,940 2,800 95 3,213 3,050 95 NE : 3,680 2,600 71 4,375 3,110 71 NY : 7,695 3,400 44 7,980 3,700 46 ND : 25,410 17,000 67 28,820 20,000 69 OH : 1,404 310 22 1,275 290 23 OR : 24,788 17,200 69 31,925 25,000 78 PA : 4,080 2,400 59 4,208 2,800 67 WA : 80,850 39,500 49 94,990 48,000 51 WI : 26,000 16,000 62 31,590 18,900 60 : Total 15 State : 392,942 256,310 65 441,297 291,650 66 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 11 Major States, December 1, 1995-96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Potato Types :---------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds : Whites : Russets State :---------------------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 6 6 94 94 ID : 10 10 90 90 ME : 3 3 69 61 28 36 MI : 2 3 78 78 20 19 MN : 14 13 16 17 70 70 NY : 5 5 93 93 2 2 ND : 16 18 36 35 48 47 OR : 1 1 3 2 96 97 PA : 3 3 97 97 WA : 2 2 5 6 93 92 WI : 3 3 27 17 70 80 : 11 State Avg : 3 4 19 17 78 79 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested by State, 1994-96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : CA : 14.0 13.0 11.5 14.0 13.0 11.5 CO : 74.0 77.0 78.0 73.7 76.8 77.8 ID : 410.0 400.0 410.0 408.0 398.0 408.0 10 SW Co : 27.0 27.0 28.0 27.0 27.0 28.0 Other ID : 383.0 373.0 382.0 381.0 371.0 380.0 IN : 4.4 5.0 5.7 4.1 4.6 5.2 ME : 78.0 78.0 78.0 75.0 78.0 77.0 MA : 3.1 3.3 2.7 3.1 3.3 2.6 MI 1/ : 54.0 55.0 52.0 52.0 54.5 46.0 MN 1/ : 81.7 83.0 85.0 74.6 77.0 82.0 MT : 10.0 9.8 10.4 10.0 9.8 10.2 NE : 11.3 12.0 12.7 11.1 11.5 12.5 NV : 8.0 7.6 8.0 8.0 7.6 7.9 NM : 6.3 6.3 6.7 6.0 6.3 6.4 NY 2/ : 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.6 28.5 28.5 Long Is : 6.1 6.1 Upstate : 23.0 22.5 ND : 133.0 125.0 134.0 120.0 121.0 131.0 OH : 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.5 5.4 5.1 OR : 56.4 54.0 65.0 55.8 53.2 64.0 Malheur : 11.9 13.0 13.6 11.8 12.8 13.3 Other OR : 44.5 41.0 51.4 44.0 40.4 50.7 PA : 19.0 18.0 17.0 18.0 17.0 16.5 RI : 1.1 .9 .8 1.1 .9 .8 SD : 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.5 5.2 5.7 UT : 6.1 5.2 4.3 6.0 5.1 4.2 WA : 152.0 147.0 163.0 152.0 147.0 161.0 WI : 73.0 82.0 83.0 71.5 80.0 81.0 WY : 1.7 1.5 .9 1.7 1.5 .8 : Total : 1,237.8 1,224.1 1,269.0 1,205.3 1,205.2 1,245.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Summer Potato estimates included with fall in 1994 for comparative purposes. 2/ Long Island and Upstate breakout discontinued in 1995. Fall Potatoes: Yield and Production by State, 1994-96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- Cwt ---------- --------- 1,000 Cwt --------- : CA : 400 410 400 5,600 5,330 4,600 CO : 350 310 370 25,795 23,808 28,786 ID : 340 333 343 138,801 132,657 139,960 10 SW Co : 470 420 425 12,690 11,340 11,900 Other ID : 331 327 337 126,111 121,317 128,060 IN : 280 260 250 1,148 1,196 1,300 ME : 245 220 275 18,375 17,160 21,175 MA : 240 260 260 744 858 676 MI 1/ : 270 300 300 14,040 16,350 13,800 MN 1/ : 269 270 300 20,035 20,790 24,600 MT : 320 300 315 3,200 2,940 3,213 NE : 360 320 350 3,996 3,680 4,375 NV : 345 365 390 2,760 2,774 3,081 NM : 500 380 400 3,000 2,394 2,560 NY 2/ : 273 270 280 7,805 7,695 7,980 Long Is : 265 1,617 Upstate : 275 6,188 ND : 235 210 220 28,200 25,410 28,820 OH : 245 260 250 1,348 1,404 1,275 OR : 493 466 499 27,514 24,788 31,925 Malheur : 430 390 380 5,074 4,992 5,054 Other OR : 510 490 530 22,440 19,796 26,871 PA : 210 240 255 3,780 4,080 4,208 RI : 225 270 265 248 243 212 SD : 280 190 280 1,540 988 1,596 UT : 265 240 280 1,590 1,224 1,176 WA : 585 550 590 88,920 80,850 94,990 WI : 360 325 390 25,740 26,000 31,590 WY : 280 260 280 476 390 224 : Total : 352 334 363 424,655 403,009 452,122 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Summer Potato estimates included with fall in 1994 for comparative purposes. 2/ Long Island and Upstate breakout discontinued in 1995. 1996 Potato Objective Yield Survey The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted potato objective yield surveys in the 7 major fall producing States in 1996. These 7 States account for 83 percent of the 1996 fall potato production. Sample plots were located in potato fields that were selected on a random basis using a scientifically designed sampling procedure. Field workers recorded counts and measurements from these fields just prior to and immediately after harvest. Sample data from the objective yield surveys presented in the following tables are not Agricultural Statistics Board official estimates. They are provided only to show current information about the crop and trends in potato production practices. Potatoes: Harvest Loss of Potatoes by Type, 7 Major States, 1995-96 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : and : Reds : Whites : Russets : All Types Year : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Cwt per Acre : ID 1995 : 21 28 28 1996 : 16 31 28 : ME 1995 : 10 14 22 16 1996 : 7 15 19 16 : MN 1995 : 9 16 20 16 1996 : 11 21 22 : ND 1995 : 16 19 27 19 1996 : 26 26 30 27 : OR 1995 : 8 23 21 21 1996 : 43 25 29 : WA 1995 : 17 19 19 1996 : 27 30 30 : WI 1995 : 15 16 16 1996 : 8 24 22 20 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Potatoes left in the field at time of harvest. Based on counts in potato fields selected for post-harvest samples. Potatoes: Average Number of Hills per Acre by Type, 1995-96 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds : Whites : Russets State :-------------------------------------------------------------------- and : Number : Avg No. : Number : Avg No. : Number : Avg No. Year : of : Hills : of : Hills : of : Hills : Samples : per Acre : Samples : per Acre : Samples : per Acre -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ID 1995 : 27 13,573 243 12,377 1996 : 36 13,032 235 12,224 : ME 1995 : 8 13,252 105 14,454 44 10,368 1996 : 9 14,923 105 13,547 50 9,739 : MN 1995 : 37 11,139 37 10,707 45 13,144 1996 : 33 11,480 11 10,859 59 13,170 : ND 1995 : 37 10,234 100 10,363 80 11,184 1996 : 29 7,690 71 9,981 62 11,368 : OR 1995 : 2 16,739 58 13,335 90 14,313 1996 : 2 11,636 53 13,474 108 14,557 : WA 1995 : 3 15,811 21 14,101 121 14,465 1996 : 4 12,147 24 13,809 119 14,119 : WI 1995 : 10 13,805 34 13,069 82 12,520 1996 : 14 13,684 31 13,372 76 12,435 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on row measurements and counts in potato field selected for objective yield samples. Potato Stocks Up 14 Percent The 15 major potato States held 292 million cwt of potatoes on December 1, 1996, up 14 percent from last year and 7 percent above the previous record in 1994. Storage accounted for 66 percent of 1996 fall production compared with 65 percent in 1995. Stocks by type were 4 percent red, 17 percent white, and 79 percent russet. There were more reds and russets, but fewer whites than a year ago. Disappearance in the 15 States from the start of harvest to December 1 was a record high 150 million cwt of potatoes, up 10 percent from the same period in 1995. Shrink and loss so far was estimated at 18.4 million cwt, up 6 percent from the 17.4 million cwt lost in 1995 but 1 percent below the 18.6 million cwt lost from the 1994 crop. Processing is heavy, with 80.0 million cwt taken by fryers and dehydrators in eight major States so far this season. This is a gain of 12 percent over a year ago and 21 percent above two years ago. Eastern States stored 23.4 million cwt of potatoes on December 1, 1996, a gain of 19 percent from last year and 18 percent above 1994. Maine's stocks were up 22 percent and the highest since 1992, New York was up 9 percent, and Pennsylvania's stocks were up 17 percent. Central States accounted for 66.8 million cwt of potato stocks this December, a jump of 13 percent over last year and 15 percent above two years ago. Michigan's and Ohio's stocks were below a year ago, but the other 4 Central States were up sharply. Minnesota gained 22 percent, Nebraska's stocks increased 20 percent, while North Dakota and Wisconsin jumped 18 percent each. Western States held 201 million cwt of potatoes in storage on December 1, 1996, up 13 percent from a year ago and 4 percent above two years ago. Oregon's storage jumped 45 percent above a year ago. Colorado was up 25 percent and Washington was up 22 percent. Idaho's stocks increased 3 percent from last year but were below those of two years ago. Stocks in Montana's seed area were up 9 percent, but California's storage dropped 10 percent. Fall Potato Production Up 12 Percent Production of fall potatoes in 1996 is estimated at a record high 452 million cwt, 12 percent above last year and 6 percent above two years ago. This is the fifth record production of potatoes in the United States in the last six years. The December 1 forecast is less than 1 percent above the November forecast. A substantial increase in final yield data in Washington more than offset downward adjustments in other States. Area harvested, at 1.25 million acres, is up 3 percent from the last two years. The average yield is estimated at 363 cwt per acre, a jump of 29 cwt from last year and 11 cwt above two years ago. Planting started late but good weather in June turned the season into one of the best ever in most States. Total U.S. potato production from all four seasons was a record high 496 million cwt in 1996, 12 percent above a year earlier and 6 percent above the previous record in 1994. Five Eastern States produced 34.3 million cwt of fall potatoes in 1996, up 14 percent from last year and 11 percent above two years ago. Potatoes were harvested from 125,400 acres, a decline of 2 percent from last year. The average yield of 273 cwt per acre increased 38 cwt from last year but slipped a little from the November forecast. Maine growers produced a 21.2 million-cwt crop, 23 percent better than last year based on a 55 cwt per acre gain in yields. New York production increased 4 percent and Pennsylvania gained 3 percent over a year ago. Massachusetts and Rhode Island potato crops were smaller than last year. Eight Central States' production is forecast at 107.4 million cwt this year, up 12 percent from the last two years. Harvested area is estimated at 368,500 acres, a gain of 3 percent from last year. The average yield of 291 cwt per acre is 24 cwt above last year. The season produced record high crops in Minnesota and Wisconsin, up 18 and 22 percent from last year. North Dakota's production increased 13 percent but was not record large. Michigan and Ohio were hurt by too much rain throughout the season even though higher ground produced bumper crops. Larger crops were grown this year in Indiana, Nebraska, and South Dakota than a year ago. Ten Western States produced 311 million cwt in 1996, up 12 percent from the last year and 4 percent above two years ago. Acreage for harvest at 751,800 acres was up 5 percent, while the average yield of 413 cwt per acre was up 27 cwt from a year ago. Idaho's production of 140 million cwt is 6 percent above last year and slightly larger than the previous record high two years ago. Some frost damage on both ends of the season kept the crop from being even larger. Production in Washington gained by late season reports of high yields. This year's production was 17 percent larger than last year and 7 percent above the previous record high. Oregon's production jumped 29 percent from last year and was 16 percent larger than two years ago. Ideal weather and growing conditions in Colorado produced a record crop of potatoes, 21 percent higher than last year. Montana growers managed a record large crop, 9 percent above last year in spite of fall frost damage. California, Utah, and Wyoming produced smaller potato crops than last year, by 14, 4, and 43 percent, respectively. New Mexico's crop was smaller than earlier expected but gained 7 percent on last year. Nevada's crop was 11 percent larger than a year ago. Reliability of December 1 Production and Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 stocks estimate is 2.6 percent. This means that the chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 292 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.6 percent or approximately 7.6 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.5 percent or approximately 13.1 million cwt. Also shown is the 10-year (1986-95) record of the differences between the December 1 production and stocks estimates and the final estimates. Using stocks again as an example, changes between the December 1 estimate and the final estimate during the 10 years have averaged 6.2 million cwt. During the 10-year period, the December 1 stocks estimates have been below the final estimate each year. Production estimates have been below the final 8 years and above 2 years. Reliability of December 1 Fall Potato Estimates -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root Mean : Ten Year Record of Difference : Square Error : Between Dec 1 and Final Estimate :------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : Number Estimate : : 90% Confidence : Quantity : of Years :Percent: Level :----------------------------------------- : :-----------------: : : : Below : Above : :Percent: Quant : Avg : Small : Large : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------- Million Cwt --------- : Stocks : 2.6 4.5 13.12 6.20 .65 14.50 10 0 Production : 1.5 2.6 11.76 5.50 .05 13.46 8 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final December Stocks, United States, 1986-96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1986 : 204,180 97.5 209,435 1987 : 223,720 99.0 225,890 1988 : 198,520 96.2 206,420 1989 : 201,400 99.7 202,050 1990 : 217,300 96.4 225,500 1991 : 240,660 99.4 242,070 1992 : 232,320 94.1 246,820 1993 : 240,370 96.3 249,710 1994 : 264,090 97.0 272,290 1995 : 252,030 98.3 256,310 1996 : 291,650 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ As reported in the September "Potato" annual summary. Note: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.5 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaining 9.5 percent. Most seed for use the following year is on hand but remains as part of stocks until planted. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1991-96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1991 : 371,730 334,893 90.1 36,837 9.9 27,021 1992 : 379,525 341,209 89.9 38,316 10.1 28,275 1993 : 385,935 351,161 91.0 34,774 9.0 29,031 1994 : 419,645 378,333 90.2 41,312 9.8 29,348 1995 : 403,009 368,946 91.5 34,063 8.5 30,357 1996 : 452,122 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3:00 p.m. ET on January 13, 1997. 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