HDR1012000110080113971500POTATO STOCKS Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 13, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV. Potato Stocks Jump 15 Percent Potato stocks totaled 257 million cwt in the 15 major storage States on January 1, 1997. This is up 15 percent from last year and 8 percent above two years ago. Disappearance of potatoes this season totaled a record 185 million cwt from the start of harvest through December, up 9 percent from last year. Processing plants used 93.1 million cwt of raw product, a gain of 7 percent from last year. Pot 1-2 (1-97) Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1987-96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1987 : 335,607 225,890 196,760 167,325 138,800 105,905 70,030 1988 : 305,623 206,420 177,750 151,050 124,485 92,585 59,355 1989 : 316,097 202,050 173,550 144,290 116,600 84,320 50,675 1990 : 344,200 225,500 194,460 162,850 134,470 101,150 63,040 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 375,004 249,710 217,800 186,090 154,135 115,970 73,860 1994 : 408,139 272,290 237,960 201,870 168,050 128,360 87,500 1995 : 392,942 256,310 223,150 188,960 155,720 116,255 76,170 1996 : 441,083 291,300 256,520 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, Eight States, 1994-96 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Malheur Co : 1995 : 26,620 34,230 42,330 49,890 57,990 66,680 90,300 1996 : 27,310 35,040 43,260 51,530 59,060 66,690 89,250 1997 : 31,060 38,210 : ME 2/ : 1995 : 1,505 1,840 2,265 2,540 2,985 3,330 4,770 1996 : 1,335 1,690 2,180 2,520 3,025 3,465 5,225 1997 : 1,400 1,725 : WA & OR - Other : 1995 : 28,670 33,480 39,120 46,070 52,940 59,540 76,780 1996 : 30,000 35,170 39,460 45,280 51,730 57,360 70,250 1997 : 31,650 36,590 : Oth Sts 3/ : 1995 : 8,785 12,070 14,605 17,095 19,840 22,595 32,260 1996 : 12,450 15,330 18,415 21,485 24,910 28,010 33,305 1997 : 13,660 16,570 : Total : 1995 : 65,580 81,620 98,320 115,595 133,755 152,145 204,110 1996 : 71,095 87,230 103,315 120,815 138,725 155,525 198,030 1997 : 77,770 93,095 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MI, MN, ND, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on January 1, 1996-97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 1995 : Crop of 1996 :--------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : Stocks : Jan % : : Jan 1, : of : : Dec 1, : Jan 1, : of : Prod : 1996 : Prod : Prod : 1996 1/: 1997 : Prod ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Cwt -- Percent ----- 1,000 Cwt ----- Percent : CA : 5,330 3,500 66 4,600 3,600 3,000 65 CO : 23,808 16,100 68 28,786 22,800 20,500 71 ID : 132,657 85,000 64 139,960 99,000 89,000 64 ME : 17,160 12,400 72 21,175 16,900 15,300 72 MI : 16,350 8,300 51 13,800 8,000 6,600 48 MN : 20,790 11,700 56 24,600 16,500 14,900 61 MT : 2,940 2,700 92 3,213 3,050 2,950 92 NE : 3,680 2,300 63 4,402 3,160 2,800 64 NY : 7,695 2,500 32 7,980 3,700 2,500 31 ND : 25,410 14,000 55 28,820 20,000 17,000 59 OH : 1,404 150 11 1,275 290 170 13 OR : 24,788 14,100 57 31,684 25,000 22,500 71 PA : 4,080 1,900 47 4,208 2,800 1,800 43 WA : 80,850 35,000 43 94,990 48,000 42,000 44 WI : 26,000 13,500 52 31,590 18,500 15,500 49 : Total 15 States: 392,942 223,150 57 441,083 291,300 256,520 58 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 11 Major States, January 1, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Potato Types :------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Reds : Whites : Russets State :------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Jan : Dec : Jan : Jan : Dec : Jan : Jan : Dec : Jan : 1996 :1996 1/: 1997 : 1996 :1996 1/: 1997 : 1996 :1996 1/: 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 6 6 6 94 94 94 ID : 10 10 10 90 90 90 ME : 3 3 2 66 61 63 31 36 35 MI : 3 1 75 78 75 25 19 24 MN : 12 13 14 20 17 18 68 70 68 NY : 5 5 5 93 93 93 2 2 2 ND : 16 18 19 32 35 32 52 47 49 OR : 1 1 1 3 2 2 96 97 97 PA : 3 3 3 97 97 97 WA : 1 2 1 3 6 3 96 92 96 WI : 2 4 5 27 19 25 71 77 70 : US : 3 4 3 18 17 17 79 79 80 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. Potato Stocks Up 15 Percent The 15 major potato States held 257 million cwt of potatoes on January 1, 1997, up 15 percent from a year earlier and 8 percent above 1995. Storage accounted for 58 percent of 1996 fall production up 1 point from last year. Stocks by type were 3 percent red, 17 percent white, and 80 percent russet. Disappearance from the start of harvest to January 1 was a record 185 million cwt of potatoes, up 9 percent from the same period a year ago. Disappearance in December 1996 was 34.8 million cwt, up 5 percent from last year and 1 percent above two years ago. Shrink and loss to date was estimated at 21.1 million cwt, up 5 percent from last year. Processing gained 7 percent to 93.1 million cwt so far this season and was 14 percent above two years ago. In December, processors used 15.3 million cwt of potatoes, down 5 percent from last year and 4 percent below two years ago. Eastern States stored 19.6 million cwt of potatoes on January 1, 1997, up 17 percent from a year ago and 23 percent above 1995. Maine's holdings were up 23 percent, New York's storage stayed the same as last year, but Pennsylvania dropped 5 percent. Central States accounted for 57.0 million cwt of potato stocks this January, 14 percent above 1996 and 17 percent above 1995. Minnesota's stocks gained 27 percent, Nebraska's cellars held 22 percent more, and North Dakota's stocks jumped 21 percent. Wisconsin's stocks were up 15 percent and Ohio gained 13 percent. Michigan's potato storage was off 20 percent from a year ago. Western States held 180 million cwt of potatoes in storage on January 1, 1997, up 15 percent from a year previous and 4 percent above two years ago. Each of the Western storage States were above last year except California, where stocks dipped 14 percent. Oregon is up 60 percent, Colorado's storage jumped 27 percent, and Washington stocks increased 20 percent from a year ago. Idaho is up 5 percent. These four States account for 68 percent of U.S. potato stocks, and their combined stocks are 16 percent above last year. Montana's stocks were up 9 percent. Reliability of January 1 Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 stocks estimate is 2.9 percent. This means the chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 257 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.9 percent or approximately 7.4 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.9 percent or approximately 12.6 million cwt. The 10-year (1987-96) record of the differences between the January 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 5.6 million cwt, ranging ranging from 0.70 million to 14.3 million cwt. During the 10-year period, the January 1 estimate has been below the final estimate each year. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final January Stocks, United States, 1986-96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1986 : 176,600 97.6 180,915 1987 : 195,880 99.6 196,760 1988 : 171,560 96.5 177,750 1989 : 173,400 99.9 173,550 1990 : 186,160 95.7 194,460 1991 : 210,935 100.0 211,005 1992 : 201,690 93.4 215,990 1993 : 209,270 96.1 217,800 1994 : 229,350 96.4 237,960 1995 : 218,970 98.1 223,150 1996 : 256,520 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ As reported in the September "Potato" annual report. Note: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.5 percent of the total fall production shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaining 9.5 percent. Most seed for use the following year is on hand but remains as part of stocks until planted. The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3:00 p.m. ET on February 13, 1997. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. 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USDA Announces Agricultural Outlook Forum 97 February 24 and 25, 1997 Omni Shoreham Hotel, Washington, D.C. An era of freer markets under the 1996 Farm Bill has begun. For an expert assessment of the impact, attend the Outlook Forum. Top speakers will discuss the 1997 farm outlook, prospects to 2005, risk management, concentration issues, market stability, world food security, marketing high-valued exports and more. Plan now to attend. For program and registration details, check Forum home page, call (202) 720-3050 or dial (202) 219-0296 from your fax machine and request document 66666. Send e-mail to agforum@oce.usda.gov. Get news from the Forum. Can't attend? After the Forum, download speeches from the Internet. Or, call 1-800-999-6779 to place an advance order for the printed proceedings (YCON-97) or new long term projections to 2005 (WAOB-97-1). Ag Forum home page: http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/agforum.htm Agricultural Outlook Forum 97