HDR1012000110080213971500POTATO STOCKS Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released February 13, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV. "Potato Stocks" is available on AutoFax, (202) 720-2000, Report 1800. See page 6. Potato Stocks 17 Percent Above Last Year February 1, 1997 potato stocks totaled 220 million cwt, up 17 percent from a year earlier and 9 percent above two years ago. Disappearance was 221 million cwt, 8 percent above a year ago and 7 percent above two years ago. Processing accounted for 109 million cwt through January, 6 percent more than last year and 11 percent above two years ago. Shrink and loss of 23.9 million cwt was up 4 percent from last year. Pot 1-2 (2-97) Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1987-96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1987 : 335,607 225,890 196,760 167,325 138,800 105,905 70,030 1988 : 305,623 206,420 177,750 151,050 124,485 92,585 59,355 1989 : 316,097 202,050 173,550 144,290 116,600 84,320 50,675 1990 : 344,200 225,500 194,460 162,850 134,470 101,150 63,040 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 375,004 249,710 217,800 186,090 154,135 115,970 73,860 1994 : 408,139 272,290 237,960 201,870 168,050 128,360 87,500 1995 : 392,942 256,310 223,150 188,960 155,720 116,255 76,170 1996 : 441,083 291,300 256,520 220,465 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, Eight States, 1994-96 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Malheur Co : 1994 : 26,620 34,230 42,330 49,890 57,990 66,680 90,300 1995 : 27,310 35,040 43,260 51,530 59,060 66,690 89,250 1996 : 31,060 38,210 45,420 : ME 2/ : 1994 : 1,505 1,840 2,265 2,540 2,985 3,330 4,770 1995 : 1,335 1,690 2,180 2,520 3,025 3,465 5,225 1996 : 1,400 1,725 2,225 : WA & OR - Other : 1994 : 28,670 33,480 39,120 46,070 52,940 59,540 76,780 1995 : 30,000 35,170 39,460 45,280 51,730 57,360 70,250 1996 : 31,650 36,590 41,690 : Oth Sts 3/ : 1994 : 8,785 12,070 14,605 17,095 19,840 22,595 32,260 1995 : 12,450 15,330 18,415 21,485 24,910 28,010 33,305 1996 : 13,660 16,570 20,140 : Total : 1994 : 65,580 81,620 98,320 115,595 133,755 152,145 204,110 1995 : 71,095 87,230 103,315 120,815 138,725 155,525 198,030 1996 : 77,770 93,095 109,475 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MI, MN, ND, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on February 1, 1996-97 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 1995 : Crop of 1996 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Feb 1, : of : Prod : Feb 1, : of : : 1996 : Prod : : 1997 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 5,330 2,800 53 4,600 2,500 54 CO : 23,808 13,400 56 28,786 17,900 62 ID : 132,657 73,500 55 139,960 78,000 56 ME : 17,160 10,400 61 21,175 13,100 62 MI : 16,350 6,500 40 13,800 5,100 37 MN : 20,790 10,200 49 24,600 13,200 54 MT : 2,940 2,600 88 3,213 2,850 89 NE : 3,680 2,000 54 4,402 2,440 55 NY : 7,695 1,500 19 7,980 1,400 18 ND : 25,410 11,500 45 28,820 13,800 48 OH : 1,404 60 4 1,275 75 6 OR : 24,788 12,300 50 31,684 20,000 63 PA : 4,080 1,200 29 4,208 1,100 26 WA : 80,850 30,500 38 94,990 36,500 38 WI : 26,000 10,500 40 31,590 12,500 40 : Total 15 State : 392,942 188,960 48 441,083 220,465 50 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 11 Major States, February 1, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Potato Types :---------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds : Whites : Russets State :---------------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 6 6 94 94 ID : 10 10 90 90 ME : 3 2 66 61 31 37 MI : 75 75 25 25 MN : 11 14 18 16 71 70 NY : 5 5 93 93 2 2 ND : 16 16 29 31 55 53 OR : 1 1 3 2 96 97 PA : 3 3 97 97 WA : 1 1 3 3 96 96 WI : 2 5 26 21 72 74 : 11 State Avg : 3 3 17 15 80 82 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potato Stocks Up 17 Percent The 15 major potato States held 220 million cwt of potatoes on February 1, 1997, up 17 percent from a year earlier and 9 percent above 1995. Storage accounted for 50 percent of 1996 fall production in the storage States, up two points from last year. Stocks by type were 3 percent reds, 15 percent whites, and 82 per- cent russets with more russets and fewer whites than a year ago. Disappearance from the start of harvest to February 1 was 221 million cwt of potatoes, up 8 percent from the same period a year earlier and 7 percent above two years ago. Disappearance during January was 36.1 million cwt, up 5 percent from last year but slightly less than two years ago. Shrink and loss to date was estimated at 23.9 million cwt, up 4 percent from last year. Processing gained 6 percent to 109 million cwt so far this season and was 11 percent above two years ago. In January, processors claimed 16.4 million cwt of potatoes, up 2 percent from last year but 2 percent short of two years ago. Eastern States stored 15.6 million cwt of potatoes on February 1, 1997, up 19 percent from a year ago and 27 percent above 1995. Stocks in Maine were up 26 percent from last year. Pennsylvania's stocks were down 8 percent, while New York's holdings were off 7 percent. Central States' storage accounted for 47.1 million cwt of potatoes this month, up 16 percent from 1996 and 20 percent above 1995. Minnesota's stocks jumped 29 percent, North Dakota's stocks increased 20 percent and Wisconsin's rose 19 percent from last year. Nebraska's stocks increased 22 percent, and Ohio's storage held 25 percent more than a year ago. Michigan's stocks dropped 22 percent. Western States held 158 million cwt of potatoes in storage on February 1, 1997, 17 percent above a year ago and 5 percent above two years ago. Oregon's stocks were up substantially at 63 percent above last year, and Colorado jumped 34 percent from year-ago levels. Both States were more than 30 percent above two years ago. Washington's stocks were up 20 percent, and Montana's were up 10 percent. Idaho, with about half the Western stocks, was up 6 percent. California's potato stocks were 11 percent below a year ago. Reliability of February 1 Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 stocks estimate is 3.3 percent. This means that the chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 220 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.3 percent or approximately 7.3 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.7 percent or approximately 12.6 million cwt. The 10-year (1986-97) record of the differences between the February 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 5.2 million cwt, ranging from 0.2 million to 14.2 million cwt. During the 10-year period, the February 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 9 out of 10 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final February Stocks, United States, 1986-96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1986 : 150,640 97.5 154,545 1987 : 167,110 99.9 167,325 1988 : 144,625 95.7 151,050 1989 : 143,150 99.2 144,290 1990 : 154,310 94.8 162,850 1991 : 178,965 100.3 178,515 1992 : 170,385 92.3 184,560 1993 : 178,070 95.7 186,090 1994 : 196,005 97.1 201,870 1995 : 184,755 97.8 188,960 1996 : 220,465 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ As reported in the September "Potatoes" annual report. Note: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.5 percent of the total fall production shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaining 9.5 percent. Most seed for use the following year is on hand but remains as part of stocks until planted. The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3:00 p.m. ET on March 14, 1997. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. 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USDA Announces Agricultural Outlook Forum 97 February 24 and 25, 1997 Omni Shoreham Hotel, Washington, D.C. An era of freer markets under the 1996 Farm Bill has begun. For an expert assessment of the impact, attend the Outlook Forum. Top speakers will discuss the 1997 farm outlook, prospects to 2005, risk management, concentration issues, market stability, world food security, marketing high-valued exports and more. Plan now to attend. For program and registration details, check Forum home page, call (202) 720-3050 or dial (202) 219-0296 from your fax machine and request document 66666. Send e-mail to agforum@oce.usda.gov. Get news from the Forum. Can't attend? After the Forum, download speeches from the Internet. Or, call 1-800-999-6779 to place an advance order for the printed proceedings (YCON-97) or new long term projections to 2005 (WAOB-97-1). Ag Forum home page: http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/agforum.htm Agricultural Outlook Forum 97