HDR1012000110080314971500POTATO STOCKS Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 14, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Up 19 Percent Potato stocks totaled 185 million cwt on March 1, 1997, up 19 percent from a year ago and 9 percent above two years ago. Disappearance, at 257 million cwt, was record high, 8 percent above last year and 7 percent above the previous record high from the 1994 crop. Shrink and loss of 26.7 million cwt was up 4 percent from a year ago. Processor usage, at 129 million cwt, was up 7 percent for the season. February processing was up 14 percent from the same month a year earlier. Pot 1-2 (3-97) Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1987-96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1987 : 335,607 225,890 196,760 167,325 138,800 105,905 70,030 1988 : 305,623 206,420 177,750 151,050 124,485 92,585 59,355 1989 : 316,097 202,050 173,550 144,290 116,600 84,320 50,675 1990 : 344,200 225,500 194,460 162,850 134,470 101,150 63,040 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 375,004 249,710 217,800 186,090 154,135 115,970 73,860 1994 : 408,139 272,290 237,960 201,870 168,050 128,360 87,395 1995 : 392,942 256,310 223,150 188,960 155,720 116,255 76,170 1996 : 441,083 291,300 256,520 220,465 184,565 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, Eight States, 1994-96 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Malheur Co : 1994 : 26,620 34,230 42,330 49,890 57,990 66,680 90,300 1995 : 27,310 35,040 43,260 51,530 59,060 66,690 89,250 1996 : 31,060 38,210 45,420 54,640 : ME 2/ : 1994 : 1,505 1,840 2,265 2,540 2,985 3,330 4,770 1995 : 1,335 1,690 2,180 2,520 3,025 3,465 5,225 1996 : 1,400 1,725 2,225 2,520 : WA & OR - Other : 1994 : 28,670 33,480 39,120 46,070 52,940 59,540 76,780 1995 : 30,000 35,170 39,460 45,280 51,730 57,360 70,250 1996 : 31,650 36,590 41,690 48,740 : Oth Sts 3/ : 1994 : 8,785 12,070 14,605 17,095 19,840 22,595 32,260 1995 : 12,450 15,330 18,415 21,485 24,910 28,010 33,305 1996 : 13,660 16,570 20,140 23,500 : Total : 1994 : 65,580 81,620 98,320 115,595 133,755 152,145 204,110 1995 : 71,095 87,230 103,315 120,815 138,725 155,525 198,030 1996 : 77,770 93,095 109,475 129,400 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MI, MN, ND, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on March 1, 1996-97 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 1995 : Crop of 1996 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Mar 1, : of : Prod : Mar 1, : of : : 1996 : Prod : : 1997 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 5,330 2,300 43 4,600 2,200 48 CO : 23,808 11,200 47 28,786 15,300 53 ID : 132,657 62,500 47 139,960 66,000 47 ME : 17,160 8,500 50 21,175 11,200 53 MI : 16,350 4,800 29 13,800 4,000 29 MN : 20,790 8,700 42 24,600 11,500 47 MT : 2,940 2,500 85 3,213 2,700 84 NE : 3,680 2/1,420 4,402 2/1,915 NY : 7,695 900 12 7,980 900 11 ND : 25,410 9,200 36 28,820 11,500 40 OH : 1,404 2/ 1,275 2/ OR : 24,788 9,900 40 31,684 16,800 53 PA : 4,080 800 20 4,208 750 18 WA : 80,850 25,000 31 94,990 30,000 32 WI : 26,000 8,000 31 31,590 9,800 31 : Total 15 State : 392,942 155,720 40 441,083 184,565 42 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and seed to plant 1997 crop. A total of 30.4 million cwt was used to plant the 1996 crop. 2/ Combined to prevent possible disclosure of individual operations. Potato Stocks Up 19 Percent March 1, 1997 potato stocks totaled 185 million cwt, up 19 percent from last year and 9 percent above two years ago. Stocks account for 42 percent of the 1996 fall potato production in the 15 storage States, up two points from a year ago. Disappearance from harvest through February totaled a record high 257 million cwt, up 8 percent from last year and 7 percent above two years ago. February disappearance of 35.9 million was 8 percent above a year ago. This includes potatoes fed to livestock. Shrinkage and loss to date was 26.7 million cwt, up 4 percent from the 25.6 million cwt lost last year and 2 percent above 26.2 million cwt lost two years ago. Processors used 129 million cwt to March 1, 1997, up 7 percent from a year ago and 12 percent above two years ago. February processing of 19.9 million cwt of potatoes gained 14 percent on a year ago and 15 percent on the 1994 crop. Eastern States March 1 storage totaled 12.9 million cwt of potatoes, up 26 percent from last year and 39 percent above 1995. Maine's stocks were up 32 percent from a year ago. New York's stocks were equal to last year and Pennsylvania's were down 6 percent. Central States accounted for 38.7 million cwt of potato stocks this March, up 21 percent from last year and 24 percent above two years ago. Minnesota's stocks were up 32 percent from last year, while Nebraska's storage was up 35 percent. North Dakota gained 25 percent and Wisconsin was up 23 percent from a year ago. Michigan's stocks were down 17 percent. Western States held 133 million cwt of potatoes in storage on March 1, 1997. This is up 17 percent from last year and 4 percent above two years ago. Idaho's stocks were up 6 percent and accounted for 50 percent of the Western total. Oregon's stocks were up 70 percent and Washington was 20 percent above a year earlier. Colorado's stocks were up 37 percent from last year and Montana's storage was up 8 percent. California's stocks were down 4 percent. Reliability of March 1 Stocks Estimate The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 stocks estimate is 3.8 percent. This means that chances are two out of three that the current estimate of 185 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.8 percent or approximately 7.0 million cwt. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.6 percent or approximately 12.2 million cwt. The 10-year (1986-1995) record of the differences between the March 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 4.9 million cwt, ranging from 0.4 million to 13.1 million cwt. During the 10-year period, the March 1 estimate has been below the final estimate nine out of 10 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final March Stocks, United States, 1986-96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1986 : 124,820 97.0 128,720 1987 : 137,950 99.4 138,800 1988 : 118,960 95.6 124,485 1989 : 115,780 99.3 116,600 1990 : 126,030 93.7 134,470 1991 : 146,180 100.2 145,820 1992 : 139,665 91.4 152,795 1993 : 146,080 94.8 154,135 1994 : 163,305 97.2 168,050 1995 : 152,255 97.8 155,720 1996 : 184,565 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ As reported in the September "Potato" annual report. Note: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.5 percent of the total fall production shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaining 9.5 percent. Most seed for use the following year is on hand but remains as part of stocks until planted. The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3:00 p.m. ET on April 14, 1997. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. 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