HDR1012000110080414971500POTATO STOCKS Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 14, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Up 23 Percent Potato stocks totaled 143 million cwt on April 1, 1997, up 23 percent from last year and 11 percent above two years ago. Disappearance for the season was a record high 298 million cwt of potatoes, 7 percent above the past two years. Shrinkage and loss of 29.3 million cwt was 5 percent above a year ago. Processors used a record high 148 million cwt of potatoes, up 7 percent for the season. Pot 1-2 (4-97) Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1987-96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1987 : 335,607 225,890 196,760 167,325 138,800 105,905 70,030 1988 : 305,623 206,420 177,750 151,050 124,485 92,585 59,355 1989 : 316,097 202,050 173,550 144,290 116,600 84,320 50,675 1990 : 344,200 225,500 194,460 162,850 134,470 101,150 63,040 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 375,004 249,710 217,800 186,090 154,135 115,970 73,860 1994 : 408,139 272,290 237,960 201,870 168,970 128,825 87,500 1995 : 392,942 256,310 223,150 188,960 155,720 116,255 76,170 1996 : 441,083 291,300 256,520 220,465 184,565 143,235 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, Eight States, 1994-96 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Malheur Co : 1994 : 26,620 34,230 42,330 49,890 57,990 66,680 90,300 1995 : 27,310 35,040 43,260 51,530 59,060 66,690 89,250 1996 : 31,060 38,210 45,420 54,640 62,570 : ME 2/ : 1994 : 1,505 1,840 2,265 2,540 2,985 3,330 4,770 1995 : 1,335 1,690 2,180 2,520 3,025 3,465 5,225 1996 : 1,400 1,725 2,225 2,520 3,135 : WA & OR - Other : 1994 : 28,670 33,480 39,120 46,070 52,940 59,540 76,780 1995 : 30,000 35,170 39,460 45,280 51,730 57,360 70,250 1996 : 31,650 36,590 41,690 48,740 55,570 : Oth Sts 3/ : 1994 : 8,785 12,070 14,605 17,095 19,840 22,595 32,260 1995 : 12,450 15,330 18,415 21,485 24,910 28,010 33,305 1996 : 13,660 16,570 20,140 23,500 27,005 : Total : 1994 : 65,580 81,620 98,320 115,595 133,755 152,145 204,110 1995 : 71,095 87,230 103,315 120,815 138,725 155,525 198,030 1996 : 77,770 93,095 109,475 129,400 148,280 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MI, MN, ND, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on April 1, 1996-97 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 1995 : Crop of 1996 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Apr 1, : of : Prod : Apr 1, : of : : 1996 : Prod : : 1997 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 5,330 1,700 32 4,600 1,700 37 CO : 23,808 9,100 38 28,786 12,800 44 ID : 132,657 49,500 37 139,960 52,000 37 ME : 17,160 5,700 33 21,175 8,400 40 MI : 16,350 2,700 17 13,800 2,500 18 MN : 20,790 6,800 33 24,600 9,000 37 MT : 2,940 1,750 60 3,213 1,900 59 NE : 3,680 2/705 4,402 2/1,005 NY : 7,695 400 7,980 350 4 ND : 25,410 7,000 28 28,820 9,300 32 OH : 1,404 2/ 1,275 2/ OR : 24,788 7,500 30 31,684 14,000 44 PA : 4,080 400 10 4,208 280 7 WA : 80,850 18,000 22 94,990 23,000 24 WI : 26,000 5,000 19 31,590 7,000 22 : Total 15 State : 392,942 116,255 30 441,083 143,235 32 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and seed to plant 1997 potatoes. 1996 crop seed usage totaled 30.4 million cwt. 2/ Combined to prevent possible disclosure of individual operations. Potato Stocks Up 23 Percent April 1, 1997 stocks totaled 143 million cwt, up 23 percent from last year and 11 percent above two years ago. Stocks made up 32 percent of fall potato production in the 15 storage States, up two points from a year ago. Season-to- date disappearance totaled a record 298 million cwt, up 7 percent from the last two years. Processor usage was also record high at 148 million cwt, up 7 percent from last year. Shrinkage and loss to date was 29.3 million cwt, 5 percent above a year ago. Disappearance from the start of harvest through March totaled 298 million cwt of potatoes, up 7 percent from the last two years. Shrinkage and loss was 29.3 million cwt, 5 percent above the 27.9 million cwt lost last year and 3 percent above losses two years ago. Processing continued to move potatoes at a record pace for the season, totaling 148 million cwt of potatoes, up 7 percent from the same period last year and 11 percent above two years ago. March processor usage was 18.9 million cwt, up 5 percent from a year ago and 4 percent above two years ago. Eastern States stored 9.03 million cwt of potatoes on April 1, 1997, up 39 percent from last year and 49 percent above two years ago. Maine's stocks were up 47 percent. New York was down 12 percent, and Pennsylvania was down 30 percent, as their seasons draw to a close. Central States held 28.8 million cwt of potatoes in storage on April 1, 1997. This is 30 percent above last year and 33 percent higher than two years ago. Wisconsin's stocks were up 40 percent while North Dakota's stocks were up 33 percent from last year. Minnesota's were up 32 percent. Nebraska's stocks were up 43 percent but Michigan's stocks were down 7 percent. Stocks in the six Western States totaled 105 million cwt, up 20 percent from last year and 4 percent above two years ago. Idaho's stocks were up 5 percent. Washington's stocks gained 28 percent, and Oregon's stocks increased 87 percent. These three States contain 62 percent of U. S. stocks. Colorado's stocks were up 41 percent. Montana's stocks were up 9 percent, while California equaled a year ago. Reliability of April 1 Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 stocks estimate is 5.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 143 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 5.6 percent or approximately 8.0 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 9.7 percent or 13.9 million cwt. The 10-year (1986-95) record of differences between the April 1 stocks estimate and the final estimates averaged 4.7 million cwt, ranging from 0.01 million cwt to 12.8 million cwt. During this 10-year period, the April 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 9 out of 10 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final April Stocks, United States, 1986-96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1986 : 91,670 96.4 95,090 1987 : 105,895 100.0 105,905 1988 : 86,745 93.7 92,585 1989 : 83,540 99.1 84,320 1990 : 91,910 90.9 101,150 1991 : 109,600 100.7 108,865 1992 : 103,010 89.0 115,785 1993 : 108,455 93.5 115,970 1994 : 123,285 95.7 128,825 1995 : 112,925 97.1 116,255 1996 : 143,235 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ As reported in the September "Potato" annual report. Note: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.5 percent of the total fall production shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaining 9.5 percent. Most seed for use the following year is on hand but remains as part of stocks until planted. The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3:00 p.m. ET on May 14, 1997. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-2791. To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C., 20250, or call 1-800-245-6340 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal employment opportunity employer. SUBSCRIBE TODAY!! 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