HDR1012000110080514971500POTATO STOCKS Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released May 14, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Up 32 Percent Potato stocks totaled 101 million cwt on May 1, 1997, up 32 percent from last year and 15 percent above two years ago. Disappearance for the season was a record high 340 million cwt of potatoes, 7 percent above last year and 6 percent above two years ago. Shrinkage and loss of 32.8 million cwt was 9 percent above a year ago. Processors used a record high 166 million cwt of potatoes, up 7 percent for the season. Pot 1-2 (5-97) Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1987-96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1987 : 335,607 225,890 196,760 167,325 138,800 105,905 70,030 1988 : 305,623 206,420 177,750 151,050 124,485 92,585 59,355 1989 : 316,097 202,050 173,550 144,290 116,600 84,320 50,675 1990 : 344,200 225,500 194,460 162,850 134,470 101,150 63,040 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 375,004 249,710 217,800 186,090 154,135 115,970 73,860 1994 : 408,139 272,290 237,960 201,870 168,970 128,825 87,500 1995 : 392,942 256,310 223,150 188,960 155,720 116,255 76,170 1996 : 441,083 291,300 256,520 220,465 184,565 143,235 100,780 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, Eight States, 1994-96 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Malheur Co : 1994 : 26,620 34,230 42,330 49,890 57,990 66,680 90,300 1995 : 27,310 35,040 43,260 51,530 59,060 66,690 89,250 1996 : 31,060 38,210 45,420 54,640 62,570 70,720 : ME 2/ : 1994 : 1,505 1,840 2,265 2,540 2,985 3,330 4,770 1995 : 1,335 1,690 2,180 2,520 3,025 3,465 5,225 1996 : 1,400 1,725 2,225 2,520 3,135 3,720 : WA & OR - Other : 1994 : 28,670 33,480 39,120 46,070 52,940 59,540 76,780 1995 : 30,000 35,170 39,460 45,280 51,730 57,360 70,250 1996 : 31,650 36,590 41,690 48,740 55,570 62,140 : Oth Sts 3/ : 1994 : 8,785 12,070 14,605 17,095 19,840 22,595 32,260 1995 : 12,450 15,330 18,415 21,485 24,910 28,010 33,305 1996 : 13,660 16,570 20,140 23,500 27,005 29,885 : Total : 1994 : 65,580 81,620 98,320 115,595 133,755 152,145 204,110 1995 : 71,095 87,230 103,315 120,815 138,725 155,525 198,030 1996 : 77,770 93,095 109,475 129,400 148,280 166,465 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MI, MN, ND, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on May 1, 1996-97 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 1995 : Crop of 1996 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : May 1, : of : Prod : May 1, : of : : 1996 : Prod : : 1997 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 5,330 1,100 21 4,600 1,100 24 CO : 23,808 6,200 26 28,786 9,800 34 ID : 132,657 36,000 27 139,960 38,000 27 ME : 17,160 2,800 16 21,175 5,200 25 MI : 16,350 1,200 7 13,800 1,300 9 MN : 20,790 4,500 22 24,600 6,500 26 MT : 2,940 340 12 3,213 220 7 NE : 3,680 2/200 4,402 2/390 NY : 7,695 150 2 7,980 160 2 ND : 25,410 4,500 18 28,820 6,500 23 OH : 1,404 2/ 1,275 2/ OR : 24,788 4,500 18 31,684 11,000 35 PA : 4,080 180 4 4,208 110 3 WA : 80,850 12,500 15 94,990 16,500 17 WI : 26,000 2,000 8 31,590 4,000 13 : Total 15 State : 392,942 76,170 19 441,083 100,780 23 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and some seed to plant 1997 potatoes. 1996 crop seed usage total 30.4 million cwt. 2/ Combined to prevent possible disclosure of individual operations. Potato Stocks Up 32 Percent May 1, 1997 stocks totaled 101 million cwt, up 32 percent from last year and 15 percent above two years ago. Stocks made up 23 percent of fall potato production in the 15 storage States, up 4 points from a year ago. Season-to- date disappearance totaled a record high 340 million cwt, up 7 percent from last year and 6 percent above two years ago. Processor usage was also record high at 166 million cwt, up 7 percent from last year. Shrinkage and loss to date was 32.8 million cwt, 9 percent above a year ago and 7 percent above losses two years ago. Processing continued to move potatoes at a record pace for the season. April processor usage was 18.2 million cwt, up 8 percent from a year ago but 1 percent below two years ago. Eastern States stored 5.47 million cwt of potatoes on May 1, 1997, up 75 percent from last year and 80 percent above two years ago. Maine's stocks were up 86 percent. New York was up 7 percent. Pennsylvania was down 39 percent. Central States held 18.7 million cwt of potatoes in storage on May 1, 1997. This is 51 percent above last year and 43 percent higher than two years ago. Wisconsin's stocks were doubled, while North Dakota's and Minnesota's stocks were up 44 percent from last year. Nebraska's stocks were up 95 percent, and Michigan's stocks were up 8 percent. Western States potato stocks totaled 76.6 million cwt in six States, up 26 percent from last year and 7 percent above two years ago. Idaho's stocks were up 6 percent. Washington's stocks gained 32 percent, and Oregon's stocks were more than double last year's level. These three States contain 65 percent of U.S. stocks. Colorado's stocks were up 58 percent. Montana's stocks were down 35 percent, while California equaled a year ago. Reliability of May 1 Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the May 1 stocks estimate is 7.7 percent. This means that chances are two out of three that the current estimate of 101 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 7.7 percent or approximately 7.8 million cwt. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 13.3 percent or 13.4 million cwt. The 10-year (1986-95) record of differences between the May 1 stocks estimate and the final estimates averaged 4.2 million cwt, ranging from 0.6 million cwt to 11.5 million cwt. During this 10-year period, the May 1 estimate has been below the final estimate eight out of 10 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final May Stocks, United States, 1986-96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1986 : 57,040 95.4 59,790 1987 : 71,640 102.3 70,030 1988 : 54,390 91.6 59,355 1989 : 50,125 98.9 50,675 1990 : 54,400 86.3 63,040 1991 : 70,020 101.3 69,110 1992 : 63,550 84.7 75,040 1993 : 68,060 92.1 73,860 1994 : 81,495 93.1 87,500 1995 : 72,210 94.8 76,170 1996 : 100,780 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ As reported in the September "Potato" annual report. Note: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.5 percent of the total fall production shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaining 9.5 percent. Most seed for use the following year is on hand but remains as part of stocks until planted. The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3:00 p.m. ET on December 16, 1997. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA's TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C., 20250, or call 1-800-245-6340 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). USDA's is an equal employment opportunity employer. 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