HDR1012000110080113981500POTATO STOCKS Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 13, 1998, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. January Potato Stocks Down 8 Percent The 15 major potato States held 241 million cwt of potatoes on January 1, 1998, down 8 percent from a year earlier but 8 percent above 1996. Storage accounted for 59 percent of 1997 fall production, the same as a year ago. This year's storage held more russets but fewer whites and reds than a year earlier. Disappearance, at 166 million cwt, is down 8 percent from last year including an 11 percent drop in processing. Pot 1-2 (98)a Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1988-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1988 : 305,623 206,420 177,750 151,050 124,485 92,585 59,355 1989 : 316,097 202,050 173,550 144,290 116,600 84,320 50,675 1990 : 344,200 225,500 194,460 162,850 134,470 101,150 63,040 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 375,004 249,710 217,800 186,090 154,135 115,970 73,860 1994 : 408,139 272,290 237,960 201,870 168,970 128,825 87,500 1995 : 392,942 256,310 223,150 188,960 155,720 116,255 76,170 1996 : 442,752 295,100 262,120 227,080 189,410 147,885 102,810 1997 : 407,164 274,250 240,850 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 8 States, 1995-97 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Malheur Co : 1995 : 27,310 35,040 43,260 51,530 59,060 66,690 89,250 1996 : 31,060 38,210 45,420 54,640 62,570 70,720 96,970 1997 : 26,880 33,950 : ME 2/ : 1995 : 1,455 1,850 2,430 2,850 3,435 3,965 5,725 1996 : 1,790 2,115 2,820 3,280 3,820 4,420 6,495 1997 : 1,245 1,655 : WA & OR - Other : 1995 : 30,000 35,170 39,460 45,280 51,730 57,360 70,250 1996 : 31,670 36,660 41,700 48,740 55,570 62,320 80,970 1997 : 28,580 33,990 : Oth Sts 3/ : 1995 : 12,650 15,630 18,815 21,985 25,510 28,610 33,580 1996 : 13,660 16,570 20,140 23,510 26,990 29,890 40,275 1997 : 11,335 13,550 : Total : 1995 : 71,415 87,690 103,965 121,645 139,735 156,625 198,805 1996 : 78,180 93,555 110,080 130,170 148,950 167,350 224,710 1997 : 68,040 83,145 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MI, MN, ND, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on January 1, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 1996 : Crop of 1997 :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : Stocks : Jan % : Prod : Jan 1, : of : Prod : Dec 1, : Jan 1, : of : : 1997 : Prod : : 1997 : 1998 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent -------- 1,000 Cwt -------- Percent : CA : 4,600 3,000 65 4,200 3,400 2,800 67 CO : 29,175 20,700 71 25,377 19,900 17,500 69 ID : 142,800 92,000 64 135,430 97,000 86,500 64 ME : 21,175 15,300 72 19,170 15,600 14,100 74 MI : 13,800 6,600 48 14,250 8,500 7,000 49 MN : 24,600 14,900 61 20,440 13,500 12,000 59 MT : 3,213 2,950 92 3,328 3,180 3,080 93 NE : 4,402 2,800 64 7,527 5,580 4,850 64 NY : 7,980 2,400 30 8,408 4,000 2,800 33 ND : 28,820 18,000 62 21,525 16,000 13,800 64 OH : 1,275 170 13 1,175 290 120 10 OR : 30,124 21,500 71 27,161 21,500 19,000 70 PA : 4,208 1,800 43 3,190 1,600 1,200 38 WA : 94,990 42,000 44 88,060 47,000 41,500 47 WI : 31,590 18,000 57 27,923 17,200 14,600 52 : 15 States : 442,752 262,120 59 407,164 274,250 240,850 59 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 11 Major States, January 1, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Potato Types :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds : Whites : Russets State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jan : Dec : Jan : Jan : Dec : Jan : Jan : Dec : Jan : 1997 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 6 5 5 2 2 94 93 93 ID : 10 8 8 90 92 92 ME : 2 4 4 63 59 57 35 37 39 MI : 1 1 1 75 72 74 24 27 25 MN : 14 12 11 18 13 13 68 75 76 NY : 5 5 5 93 93 93 2 2 2 ND : 19 12 12 32 24 20 49 64 68 OR : 1 1 1 2 3 3 97 96 96 PA : 3 3 3 97 97 97 WA : 1 1 1 3 7 4 96 92 95 WI : 5 3 2 25 19 18 70 78 80 : 11 St Avg : 3 3 2 17 16 15 80 81 83 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potato Stocks Down 8 Percent January 1, 1998 potato stocks totaled 241 million cwt, down 8 percent from a year ago but 8 percent above two years ago. Storage accounted for 59 percent of fall production, the same as a year earlier. Stocks by type were 2 percent reds, 15 percent whites, and 83 percent russets, with more russets and fewer whites and reds than a year ago. Disappearance from the start of harvest to January 1 totaled 166 million cwt this season, down 8 percent from last year and 2 percent below two years ago. Carry-over from last year's record large crop and a shift to later maturing varieties for processing resulted in lighter disappearance. December's disappearance of 33.4 million cwt was 1 percent above the last 2 years. Shrink and loss of 18.2 million cwt was 14 percent below last year and 9 percent below two years ago. Processing of 1997 crop potatoes so far this season totaled 83.1 million cwt, down 11 percent from the 1996 crop and 5 percent below the 1995 crop. In December, processors claimed 15.1 cwt of potatoes, down 2 percent from last year and 7 percent below two years ago. Eastern States stored 18.1 million cwt of potatoes on January 1, 1998, down 7 percent from a year ago but 8 percent above two years ago. Maine's holdings were down 8 percent, and Pennsylvania's stocks were off 33 percent. New York's storage was up 17 percent from a year ago. Central States accounted for 52.4 million cwt of potato stocks this January, 13 percent below 1997 but 5 percent above 1996. Minnesota and Wisconsin stocks each dropped 19 percent. North Dakota's stocks fell 23 percent from last year, and Ohio was off 29 percent. Stocks in Nebraska jumped 73 percent, and Michigan gained 6 percent. Western States held 170 million cwt of potatoes in storage on January 1, 1998, down 6 percent from last year but 9 percent above 1996. Every State was below last year except Montana. Idaho's stocks declined 6 percent, Washington was off 1 percent, and Oregon dropped 12 percent from a year ago. Colorado's storage fell 15 percent, and California's stocks were down 7 percent. Montana's gain from last year was 4 percent. Reliability of January Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 stocks estimate is 2.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 241 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.8 percent or approximately 6.7 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.9 percent or 11.8 million cwt. The 10-year (1986-96) record of difference between the January 1 stocks estimate and the final estimates averaged 5.7 million cwt, ranging from 0.70 million cwt to 14.3 million cwt. During this 10-year period, the January 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 10 out of 10 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final January Stocks, United States, 1987-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1987 : 195,880 99.6 196,760 1988 : 171,560 96.5 177,750 1989 : 173,400 99.9 173,550 1990 : 186,160 95.7 194,460 1991 : 210,935 100.0 211,005 1992 : 201,690 93.4 215,990 1993 : 209,270 96.1 217,800 1994 : 229,350 96.4 237,960 1995 : 218,970 98.1 223,150 1996 : 256,520 97.9 262,120 1997 : 240,850 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ As reported in the September "Potato" annual report. Note: Stocks are the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.5 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss, and home use account for the remaining 9.5 percent. Most seed for use the following year is on hand but remains as part of stocks until planted. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1992-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1992 : 379,525 341,209 89.9 38,316 10.1 28,275 1993 : 385,935 351,161 91.0 34,774 9.0 29,031 1994 : 419,645 382,333 91.1 41,312 9.8 29,348 1995 : 403,009 368,946 91.5 34,063 8.5 30,582 1996 : 453,436 407,326 89.8 46,110 10.2 28,941 1997 : 417,088 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Production, Stocks, January 1, and Farm Disposition, 15 States and Fall Season, 1994-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : Farm Disposition : : : Total :--------------------------------- State : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : and :Production : Jan 1 : For :----------------------: Crop Year : : : Seed :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : CA 1994 : 5,600 3,700 286 60 500 5,040 1995 : 5,330 3,500 242 10 460 4,860 1996 : 4,600 3,000 200 23 472 4,105 1997 : 4,200 2,800 : CO 1994 : 25,795 16,300 1,925 1,210 2,040 22,545 1995 : 23,808 16,100 1,950 1,285 2,048 20,475 1996 : 29,175 20,700 1,925 1,485 3,975 23,715 1997 : 25,377 17,500 : ID 1994 : 138,801 89,500 8,400 1,535 9,659 127,607 1995 : 132,657 85,000 8,700 1,785 8,920 121,952 1996 : 142,800 92,000 8,400 1,500 10,100 131,200 1997 : 135,430 86,500 : ME 1994 : 18,375 11,400 1,716 525 2,850 15,000 1995 : 17,160 12,400 1,716 420 1,025 15,715 1996 : 21,175 15,300 1,628 395 1,800 18,980 1997 : 19,170 14,100 : MI 1994 : 11,310 6,500 963 174 1,350 9,786 1995 : 16,350 8,300 962 168 690 15,492 1996 : 13,800 6,600 784 300 1,300 12,200 1997 : 14,250 7,000 : MN 1994 : 17,755 10,800 1,693 458 1,668 15,629 1995 : 20,790 11,700 1,573 346 1,757 18,687 1996 : 24,600 14,900 1,383 445 4,158 19,997 1997 : 20,440 12,000 : MT 1994 : 3,200 3,000 216 142 192 2,866 1995 : 2,940 2,700 239 128 147 2,665 1996 : 3,213 2,950 239 137 221 2,855 1997 : 3,328 3,080 : NE 1994 : 3,996 2,100 300 217 311 3,468 1995 : 3,680 2,300 292 187 284 3,209 1996 : 4,402 2,800 449 169 439 3,794 1997 : 7,527 4,850 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, Stocks, January 1, and Farm Disposition, 15 States and Fall Season, 1994-97 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : Farm Disposition : : : Total :--------------------------------- State : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : and :Production : Jan 1 : For :----------------------: Crop Year : : : Seed :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : NY 1994 : 7,805 3,000 648 131 417 7,257 1995 : 7,695 2,500 648 155 290 7,250 1996 : 7,980 2,400 660 140 370 7,470 1997 : 8,408 2,800 : ND 1994 : 28,200 16,200 2,125 335 4,365 23,500 1995 : 25,410 14,000 2,211 280 2,800 22,330 1996 : 28,820 18,000 2,188 360 5,270 23,190 1997 : 21,525 13,800 : OH 1994 : 1,348 260 110 22 11 1,315 1995 : 1,404 150 107 4 10 1,390 1996 : 1,275 170 105 5 35 1,235 1997 : 1,175 120 : OR 1994 : 27,514 17,600 1,242 222 2,055 25,237 1995 : 24,788 14,100 1,475 148 1,450 23,190 1996 : 30,124 21,500 1,357 305 2,560 27,259 1997 : 27,161 19,000 : PA 1994 : 3,780 1,600 342 17 362 3,401 1995 : 4,080 1,900 323 20 102 3,958 1996 : 4,208 1,800 361 83 325 3,800 1997 : 3,190 1,200 : WA 1994 : 88,920 43,000 3,528 300 7,000 81,620 1995 : 80,850 35,000 3,912 300 6,400 74,150 1996 : 94,990 42,000 3,552 300 6,800 87,890 1997 : 88,060 41,500 : WI 1994 : 25,740 13,000 1,640 257 1,802 23,681 1995 : 26,000 13,500 1,743 288 1,250 24,462 1996 : 31,590 18,000 1,560 305 1,360 29,925 1997 : 27,923 14,600 : 15 Sts : 1994 : 408,139 237,960 25,134 5,605 34,582 367,952 1995 : 392,942 223,150 26,093 5,524 27,633 359,785 1996 : 442,752 262,120 24,791 5,952 39,185 397,615 1997 : 407,164 240,850 : 23 Fall Sts : 1994 : 419,645 25,872 5,671 35,641 378,333 1995 : 403,009 26,813 5,559 28,504 368,946 1996 : 453,436 25,444 6,054 40,056 407,326 1997 : 417,088 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 1994-96 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : : : : : : : and :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul Crop Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : CO 1994 : 5 9 11 11 11 10 12 10 9 8 4 1995 : 4 8 10 10 11 10 10 12 10 9 6 1996 : 4 7 9 9 10 9 10 11 10 11 10 : ID 1994 : 4 15 19 5 7 5 5 7 12 9 6 6 1995 : 4 16 17 6 7 6 6 9 8 8 7 6 1996 : 6 14 18 7 5 6 6 9 8 8 6 7 : ME 1994 : 3 6 11 8 11 12 10 16 14 6 3 1995 : 2 5 7 9 9 11 11 17 18 7 4 1996 : 1 8 7 7 8 10 9 14 16 9 11 : MI 1994 : 4 9 15 10 11 8 10 9 11 9 3 1 1995 : 5 11 15 13 13 11 6 9 11 6 1996 : 1 9 10 11 11 9 12 11 10 9 5 2 : MN 1994 : 4 24 26 8 4 5 5 6 8 6 4 1995 : 2 30 26 6 4 5 5 6 8 6 2 1996 : 6 22 19 11 5 5 7 8 8 5 4 : NY 1994 : 3 24 15 12 15 17 7 3 4 1995 : 6 15 15 17 16 12 8 6 4 1 1996 : 7 17 17 14 14 10 8 7 4 2 : ND 1994 : 2 15 10 9 11 13 8 10 9 9 3 1 1995 : 3 14 16 9 10 9 9 8 9 11 2 1996 : 4 12 22 8 7 7 8 10 7 6 7 2 : OR 1994 : 2 11 14 25 8 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 2 1995 : 1 12 16 25 7 6 6 5 6 7 7 2 2 1996 : 1 14 16 26 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 5 2 : PA 1994 : 15 21 14 14 10 9 7 6 3 1 1995 : 18 18 18 13 13 9 5 3 2 1 1996 : 1 12 15 13 11 9 10 8 9 6 4 2 : WA 1994 : 16 13 24 6 4 5 6 6 6 7 5 2 1995 : 16 13 32 7 3 4 4 7 5 4 4 1 1996 : 17 11 31 8 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 2 : WI 1994 : 1 8 19 14 11 8 9 9 10 6 4 1 1995 : 1 9 17 13 12 7 10 9 11 8 3 1996 : 1 6 20 14 10 7 8 11 9 7 4 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3:00 p.m. ET on February 13, 1998. 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