Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released February 13, 1998, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Down 9 Percent The 15 major potato States held 206 million cwt of potatoes on February 1, 1998, down 9 percent from a year earlier but 9 percent above 1996. Storage accounted for 51 percent of 1997 fall production in the storage States, the same as last year. Current storage held more russets but fewer reds and whites than a year ago. Disappearance of 201 million cwt was down 7 percent from last year, including a 10 percent drop in processing. Pot 1-2 (2-98) Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1988-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1988 : 305,623 206,420 177,750 151,050 124,485 92,585 59,355 1989 : 316,097 202,050 173,550 144,290 116,600 84,320 50,675 1990 : 344,200 225,500 194,460 162,850 134,470 101,150 63,040 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 375,004 249,710 217,800 186,090 154,135 115,970 73,860 1994 : 408,139 272,290 237,960 201,870 168,970 128,825 87,500 1995 : 392,942 256,310 223,150 188,960 155,720 116,255 76,170 1996 : 442,752 295,100 262,120 227,080 189,410 147,885 102,810 1997 : 407,164 274,250 240,850 205,850 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 8 States, 1995-97 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Malheur Co : 1995 : 27,310 35,040 43,260 51,530 59,060 66,690 89,250 1996 : 31,060 38,210 45,420 54,640 62,570 70,720 96,970 1997 : 26,880 33,950 41,050 : ME 2/ : 1995 : 1,455 1,850 2,430 2,850 3,435 3,965 5,725 1996 : 1,790 2,115 2,820 3,280 3,820 4,420 6,495 1997 : 1,245 1,655 2,285 : WA & OR - Other : 1995 : 30,000 35,170 39,460 45,280 51,730 57,360 70,250 1996 : 31,670 36,660 41,700 48,740 55,570 62,320 80,970 1997 : 28,580 33,990 38,690 : Oth Sts 3/ : 1995 : 12,650 15,630 18,815 21,985 25,510 28,610 33,580 1996 : 13,660 16,570 20,140 23,510 26,990 29,890 40,275 1997 : 11,335 13,550 16,615 : Total : 1995 : 71,415 87,690 103,965 121,645 139,735 156,625 198,805 1996 : 78,180 93,555 110,080 130,170 148,950 167,350 224,710 1997 : 68,040 83,145 98,640 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MI, MN, ND, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on February 1, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 1996 : Crop of 1997 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Feb 1, : of : Prod : Feb 1, : of : : 1997 : Prod : : 1998 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 4,600 2,500 54 4,200 2,400 57 CO : 29,175 18,100 62 25,377 15,200 60 ID : 142,800 82,000 57 135,430 76,000 56 ME : 21,175 13,100 62 19,170 12,100 63 MI : 13,800 4,600 33 14,250 5,500 39 MN : 24,600 13,200 54 20,440 10,500 51 MT : 3,213 2,850 89 3,328 2,980 90 NE : 4,402 2,440 55 7,527 3,800 50 NY : 7,980 1,400 18 8,408 1,400 17 ND : 28,820 15,000 52 21,525 11,500 53 OH : 1,275 90 7 1,175 70 6 OR : 30,124 19,000 63 27,161 16,000 59 PA : 4,208 1,300 31 3,190 1,000 31 WA : 94,990 36,500 38 88,060 36,500 41 WI : 31,590 15,000 47 27,923 10,900 39 : 15 States : 442,752 227,080 51 407,164 205,850 51 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 11 Major States, February 1, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Potato Types :---------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds : Whites : Russets State :---------------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 6 5 2 94 93 ID : 10 8 90 92 ME : 2 4 61 56 37 40 MI : 1 75 74 25 25 MN : 14 10 16 10 70 80 NY : 5 5 93 93 2 2 ND : 16 12 31 18 53 70 OR : 1 1 2 3 97 96 PA : 3 3 97 97 WA : 1 1 3 3 96 96 WI : 5 1 21 16 74 83 : 11 State Avg : 3 2 15 13 82 85 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potato Stocks Down 9 Percent February 1, 1998, potato stocks totaled 206 million cwt, down 9 percent from a year earlier but 9 percent above two years ago. Disappearance was 201 million cwt, 7 percent below a year ago and off 1 percent from two years ago. Processing accounted for 98.6 million cwt through January, 10 percent less than last year and 5 percent short of two years ago. Shrink and loss of 20.5 million cwt was down 14 percent from last year. Stocks by type were 2 percent reds, 13 percent whites, and 85 percent russets, with more russets but fewer reds and whites than a year ago. Disappearance from the start of harvest to February 1 was 201 million cwt this season, down 7 percent from the same period a year earlier and 1 percent below two years ago. Disappearance during January was 35.0 million cwt, down fractionally from last year but 2 percent above two years ago. Seasonal shrink and loss was estimated at 20.5 million cwt, down 14 percent from last year and 10 percent below two years ago. Processing of 1997 crop potatoes totaled 98.6 million cwt so far this season, down 10 percent from last year and 5 percent below two years ago. January processing claimed 15.5 million cwt of potatoes, down 6 percent from last year and 5 percent short of two years ago. Eastern States stored 14.5 million cwt of potatoes on February 1, 1998, down 8 percent from a year ago but 11 percent above 1996. Stocks in Maine were down 8 percent from last year. Pennsylvania's stocks were down 23 percent, while New York's holdings were the same as last year. Central States' storage accounted for 42.3 million cwt of potatoes this month, down 16 percent from 1997, but 4 percent above 1996. Wisconsin's stocks dropped 27 percent, North Dakota's stocks fell 23 percent, and Minnesota's stocks slipped 20 percent from a year ago. Michigan's holdings were up 20 percent, while Nebraska's stocks increased 56 percent. Western States held 149 million cwt of potatoes in storage on February 1, 1998, down 7 percent from last year but 10 percent above 1996. Idaho's stocks fell 7 percent from a year ago but were 3 percent above two years ago. Idaho's storage held more than half of the western stocks. Colorado and Oregon stocks were each off 16 percent from last year, while California's stocks dropped 4 percent. Washington's stocks were the same as last year and Montana's seed growers gained 5 percent. Each of the Western States, except California, had more potatoes in storage than two years ago. Reliability of February Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 stocks estimate is 3.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 206 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.3 percent or approximately 6.79 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.7 percent or 11.7 million cwt. The 10-year (1986-96) record of difference between the February 1 Stocks estimate and the final estimates averaged 5.48 million cwt, ranging from 0.22 million cwt to 14.2 million cwt. During this 10-year period, the February 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 9 out of 10 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final February Stocks, United States, 1987-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1987 : 167,110 99.9 167,325 1988 : 144,625 95.7 151,050 1989 : 143,150 99.2 144,290 1990 : 154,310 94.8 162,850 1991 : 178,965 100.3 178,515 1992 : 170,385 92.3 184,560 1993 : 178,070 95.7 186,090 1994 : 196,005 97.1 201,870 1995 : 184,755 97.8 188,960 1996 : 220,465 97.1 227,080 1997 : 205,850 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ As reported in the September "Potato" annual report. Note: Stocks are the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.5 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss, and home use account for the remaining 9.5 percent. Most seed for use the following year is on hand but remains as part of stocks until planted. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1992-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1992 : 379,525 341,209 89.9 38,316 10.1 28,275 1993 : 385,935 351,161 91.0 34,774 9.0 29,031 1994 : 419,645 382,333 91.1 41,312 9.8 29,348 1995 : 403,009 368,946 91.5 34,063 8.5 30,582 1996 : 453,436 407,326 89.8 46,110 10.2 28,941 1997 : 417,088 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Production, February 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 States and Fall Season, 1994-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : Farm Disposition : : : Total :--------------------------------- State : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : and :Production : Feb 1 : For :----------------------: Crop Year : : : Seed :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : CA 1994 : 5,600 3,200 286 60 500 5,040 1995 : 5,330 2,800 242 10 460 4,860 1996 : 4,600 2,500 200 23 472 4,105 1997 : 4,200 2,400 : CO 1994 : 25,795 13,700 1,925 1,210 2,040 22,545 1995 : 23,808 13,400 1,950 1,285 2,048 20,475 1996 : 29,175 18,100 1,925 1,485 3,975 23,715 1997 : 25,377 15,200 : ID 1994 : 138,801 78,000 8,400 1,535 9,659 127,607 1995 : 132,657 73,500 8,700 1,785 8,920 121,952 1996 : 142,800 82,000 8,400 1,500 10,100 131,200 1997 : 135,430 76,000 : ME 1994 : 18,375 9,400 1,716 525 2,850 15,000 1995 : 17,160 10,400 1,716 420 1,025 15,715 1996 : 21,175 13,100 1,628 395 1,800 18,980 1997 : 19,170 12,100 : MI 1994 : 11,310 5,000 963 174 1,350 9,786 1995 : 16,350 6,500 962 168 690 15,492 1996 : 13,800 4,600 784 300 1,300 12,200 1997 : 14,250 5,500 : MN 1994 : 17,755 9,400 1,693 458 1,668 15,629 1995 : 20,790 10,200 1,573 346 1,757 18,687 1996 : 24,600 13,200 1,383 445 4,158 19,997 1997 : 20,440 10,500 : MT 1994 : 3,200 2,860 216 142 192 2,866 1995 : 2,940 2,600 239 128 147 2,665 1996 : 3,213 2,850 239 137 221 2,855 1997 : 3,328 2,980 : NE 1994 : 3,996 1,780 300 217 311 3,468 1995 : 3,680 2,000 292 187 284 3,209 1996 : 4,402 2,440 449 169 439 3,794 1997 : 7,527 3,800 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, February 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 States and Fall Season, 1994-97 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : Farm Disposition : : : Total :--------------------------------- State : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : and :Production : Feb 1 : For :----------------------: Crop Year : : : Seed :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : NY 1994 : 7,805 1,800 648 131 417 7,257 1995 : 7,695 1,500 648 155 290 7,250 1996 : 7,980 1,400 660 140 370 7,470 1997 : 8,408 1,400 : ND 1994 : 28,200 12,500 2,125 335 4,365 23,500 1995 : 25,410 11,500 2,211 280 2,800 22,330 1996 : 28,820 15,000 2,188 360 5,270 23,190 1997 : 21,525 11,500 : OH 1994 : 1,348 130 110 22 11 1,315 1995 : 1,404 60 107 4 10 1,390 1996 : 1,275 90 105 5 35 1,235 1997 : 1,175 70 : OR 1994 : 27,514 15,200 1,242 222 2,055 25,237 1995 : 24,788 12,300 1,475 148 1,450 23,190 1996 : 30,124 19,000 1,357 305 2,560 27,259 1997 : 27,161 16,000 : PA 1994 : 3,780 1,100 342 17 362 3,401 1995 : 4,080 1,200 323 20 102 3,958 1996 : 4,208 1,300 361 83 325 3,800 1997 : 3,190 1,000 : WA 1994 : 88,920 37,500 3,528 300 7,000 81,620 1995 : 80,850 30,500 3,912 300 6,400 74,150 1996 : 94,990 36,500 3,552 300 6,800 87,890 1997 : 88,060 36,500 : WI 1994 : 25,740 10,300 1,640 257 1,802 23,681 1995 : 26,000 10,500 1,743 288 1,250 24,462 1996 : 31,590 15,000 1,560 305 1,360 29,925 1997 : 27,923 10,900 : 15 Sts : 1994 : 408,139 201,870 25,134 5,605 34,582 367,952 1995 : 392,942 188,960 26,093 5,524 27,633 359,785 1996 : 442,752 227,080 24,791 5,952 39,185 397,615 1997 : 407,164 205,850 : 23 Fall Sts : 1994 : 419,645 25,872 5,671 35,641 378,333 1995 : 403,009 26,813 5,559 28,504 368,946 1996 : 453,436 25,444 6,054 40,056 407,326 1997 : 417,088 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 1994-96 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : : : : : : : and :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul Crop Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : CO 1994 : 5 9 11 11 11 10 12 10 9 8 4 1995 : 4 8 10 10 11 10 10 12 10 9 6 1996 : 4 7 9 9 10 9 10 11 10 11 10 : ID 1994 : 4 15 19 5 7 5 5 7 12 9 6 6 1995 : 4 16 17 6 7 6 6 9 8 8 7 6 1996 : 6 14 18 7 5 6 6 9 8 8 6 7 : ME 1994 : 3 6 11 8 11 12 10 16 14 6 3 1995 : 2 5 7 9 9 11 11 17 18 7 4 1996 : 1 8 7 7 8 10 9 14 16 9 11 : MI 1994 : 4 9 15 10 11 8 10 9 11 9 3 1 1995 : 5 11 15 13 13 11 6 9 11 6 1996 : 1 9 10 11 11 9 12 11 10 9 5 2 : MN 1994 : 4 24 26 8 4 5 5 6 8 6 4 1995 : 2 30 26 6 4 5 5 6 8 6 2 1996 : 6 22 19 11 5 5 7 8 8 5 4 : NY 1994 : 3 24 15 12 15 17 7 3 4 1995 : 6 15 15 17 16 12 8 6 4 1 1996 : 7 17 17 14 14 10 8 7 4 2 : ND 1994 : 2 15 10 9 11 13 8 10 9 9 3 1 1995 : 3 14 16 9 10 9 9 8 9 11 2 1996 : 4 12 22 8 7 7 8 10 7 6 7 2 : OR 1994 : 2 11 14 25 8 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 2 1995 : 1 12 16 25 7 6 6 5 6 7 7 2 2 1996 : 1 14 16 26 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 5 2 : PA 1994 : 15 21 14 14 10 9 7 6 3 1 1995 : 18 18 18 13 13 9 5 3 2 1 1996 : 1 12 15 13 11 9 10 8 9 6 4 2 : WA 1994 : 16 13 24 6 4 5 6 6 6 7 5 2 1995 : 16 13 32 7 3 4 4 7 5 4 4 1 1996 : 17 11 31 8 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 2 : WI 1994 : 1 8 19 14 11 8 9 9 10 6 4 1 1995 : 1 9 17 13 12 7 10 9 11 8 3 1996 : 1 6 20 14 10 7 8 11 9 7 4 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3:00 p.m. ET on March 14, 1998. 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