Pot 1-2 (3-99) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 12, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. March Potato Stocks Down 1 Percent The 15 major potato States held 174 million cwt of potatoes on March 1, 1999, down 1 percent from last year and 8 percent below March 1997. Storage accounted for 41 percent of 1998 fall production, down 2 percent from a year ago. Disappearance, at 251 million cwt, is up 6 percent from last year but 1 percent below the record high from the 1996 crop. Processor usage in the 8 major States, totaled 129 million cwt, up 9 percent from last year. Shrinkage and loss to date gained 17 percent from a year ago. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1989-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1989 : 316,097 202,050 173,550 144,290 116,600 84,320 50,675 1990 : 344,200 225,500 194,460 162,850 134,470 101,150 63,040 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 376,954 249,410 217,300 185,490 153,435 115,170 72,860 1994 : 410,839 273,290 238,560 202,470 169,570 129,825 87,600 1995 : 394,785 256,710 223,550 189,360 156,020 115,855 75,870 1996 : 443,704 295,100 261,320 226,080 189,210 147,585 103,210 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 424,897 282,300 246,220 211,100 174,100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 8 States, 1995-98 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Malheur Co : 1995 : 27,310 35,040 43,260 51,530 59,060 66,690 89,250 1996 : 31,060 38,210 45,420 54,640 62,570 70,720 96,970 1997 : 26,880 33,950 41,050 49,470 57,620 65,750 91,450 1998 : 27,510 34,700 42,670 51,210 : ME 2/ : 1995 : 1,455 1,850 2,430 2,850 3,435 3,965 5,725 1996 : 1,790 2,115 2,820 3,280 3,820 4,420 6,495 1997 : 1,250 1,720 2,265 2,735 3,355 3,900 5,870 1998 : 1,180 1,710 2,260 2,983 : WA & OR - Other : 1995 : 30,000 35,170 39,460 45,280 51,730 57,360 70,250 1996 : 31,670 36,660 41,700 48,740 55,570 62,320 80,970 1997 : 28,580 33,990 38,690 46,400 53,720 59,780 76,930 1998 : 33,460 38,895 45,650 53,290 : Oth Sts 3/ : 1995 : 12,650 15,630 18,815 21,985 25,510 28,610 33,580 1996 : 13,720 17,000 20,645 24,085 27,650 30,830 43,100 1997 : 11,645 13,960 17,115 19,905 23,515 26,365 37,842 1998 : 11,020 13,785 17,510 21,185 : Total : 1995 : 71,415 87,690 103,965 121,645 139,735 156,625 198,805 1996 : 78,240 93,985 110,585 130,745 149,610 168,290 227,535 1997 : 68,355 83,620 99,120 118,510 138,210 155,795 212,092 1998 : 73,170 89,090 108,090 128,668 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MI, MN, ND, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on March 1, 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 1997 : Crop of 1998 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Mar 1, : of : Prod : Mar 1, : of : : 1998 : Prod : : 1999 1/ : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 4,200 1,800 43 3,708 1,600 43 CO : 24,993 12,800 51 25,360 11,800 47 ID : 140,314 69,500 50 139,650 67,500 48 ME : 19,080 10,300 54 18,060 8,450 47 MI : 14,250 3,800 27 14,725 3,900 26 MN : 20,440 8,800 43 21,170 8,900 42 MT : 3,328 2,350 71 3,180 2,650 83 NE 2/ : 7,761 2,430 8,175 2,500 NY : 7,150 800 11 7,290 900 12 ND : 22,000 9,300 42 28,670 11,800 41 OH 2/ : 1,170 1,200 OR : 27,319 13,000 48 26,229 13,000 50 PA : 3,173 890 28 3,360 600 18 WA : 88,160 29,500 33 93,225 29,500 32 WI : 30,175 10,600 35 30,895 11,000 36 : 15 States : 413,513 175,870 43 424,897 174,100 41 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and seed to plant 1999 crop. Seed usage in 1998 totaled 30.0 million cwt. 2/ Combined to prevent disclosure of individual operations. NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.8 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaining 9.2 percent. Most seed for use the following year is still on hand March 1, but remains part of stocks until moved or planted. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1993-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1993 : 387,885 353,052 91.0 34,833 9.0 29,076 1994 : 422,345 380,818 90.2 41,527 9.8 29,428 1995 : 404,852 370,679 91.6 34,173 8.4 30,561 1996 : 454,388 408,247 89.8 46,141 10.2 29,138 1997 : 423,190 387,089 91.5 36,101 8.5 29,975 1998 : 434,368 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Production, March 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 States and Fall Season, 1995-98 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :--------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Mar 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Seed :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 1995: 5,330 2,300 242 10 460 4,860 : 1996: 4,600 2,200 200 23 472 4,105 : 1997: 4,200 1,800 206 20 340 3,840 : 1998: 3,708 1,600 CO : : : 1995: 23,808 11,200 1,950 1,285 2,048 20,475 : 1996: 29,175 15,500 1,925 1,485 3,975 23,715 : 1997: 24,993 12,800 1,895 1,340 2,773 20,880 : 1998: 25,360 11,800 ID : : : 1995: 132,657 62,500 8,700 1,785 8,920 121,952 : 1996: 142,800 70,000 8,600 1,500 10,100 131,200 : 1997: 140,314 69,500 8,700 1,130 9,258 129,926 : 1998: 139,650 67,500 ME : : : 1995: 17,160 8,500 1,716 420 1,025 15,715 : 1996: 21,175 11,200 1,584 395 1,800 18,980 : 1997: 19,080 10,300 1,430 275 1,760 17,045 : 1998: 18,060 8,450 MI : : : 1995: 16,350 4,800 962 168 690 15,492 : 1996: 13,800 3,300 768 300 1,300 12,200 : 1997: 14,250 3,800 864 200 1,300 12,750 : 1998: 14,725 3,900 MN : : : 1995: 20,790 8,700 1,573 346 1,757 18,687 : 1996: 24,600 11,000 1,348 445 4,158 19,997 : 1997: 20,440 8,800 1,640 450 1,717 18,273 : 1998: 21,170 8,900 MT : : : 1995: 2,940 2,500 239 128 147 2,665 : 1996: 3,213 2,700 239 137 221 2,855 : 1997: 3,328 2,350 244 152 208 2,968 : 1998: 3,180 2,650 NE 1/ : : : 1995: 3,680 1,420 292 187 284 3,209 : 1996: 4,402 1,930 451 169 439 3,794 : 1997: 7,761 2,430 462 203 380 7,178 : 1998: 8,175 2,500 NY : : : 1995: 7,425 900 594 155 290 6,980 : 1996: 7,420 800 583 127 341 6,952 : 1997: 7,150 800 607 139 315 6,696 : 1998: 7,290 900 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, March 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 States and Fall Season, 1995-98 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :--------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Mar 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Seed :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 1995: 25,410 9,200 2,211 280 2,800 22,330 : 1996: 28,820 12,400 2,188 360 5,270 23,190 : 1997: 22,000 9,300 2,142 355 2,266 19,379 : 1998: 28,670 11,800 OH 1/ : : : 1995: 1,404 107 4 10 1,390 : 1996: 1,275 109 5 35 1,235 : 1997: 1,170 105 8 37 1,125 : 1998: 1,200 OR : : : 1995: 24,788 9,900 1,475 148 1,450 23,190 : 1996: 30,124 16,000 1,345 305 2,560 27,259 : 1997: 27,319 13,000 1,405 195 1,555 25,569 : 1998: 26,229 13,000 PA : : : 1995: 4,080 800 314 20 102 3,958 : 1996: 4,160 880 266 81 320 3,759 : 1997: 3,173 890 276 78 176 2,919 : 1998: 3,360 600 WA : : : 1995: 80,850 25,000 3,912 300 6,400 74,150 : 1996: 94,990 30,000 3,648 300 6,800 87,890 : 1997: 88,160 29,500 3,840 300 6,400 81,460 : 1998: 93,225 29,500 WI : : : 1995: 28,113 8,300 1,806 298 1,350 26,465 : 1996: 33,150 11,300 1,710 320 1,425 31,405 : 1997: 30,175 10,600 1,764 275 1,448 28,452 : 1998: 30,895 11,000 15 Sts : : : 1995: 394,785 156,020 26,093 5,534 27,733 361,518 : 1996: 443,704 189,210 24,964 5,952 39,216 398,536 : 1997: 413,513 175,870 25,580 5,120 29,933 378,460 : 1998: 424,897 174,100 23 Fall: : : 1995: 404,852 26,813 5,569 28,604 370,679 : 1996: 454,388 25,608 6,054 40,087 408,247 : 1997: 423,190 26,224 5,260 30,841 387,089 : 1998: 434,368 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Combined to prevent disclosure of individual operations. Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 1995-97 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CO : : : 1995 : 4 8 10 10 11 10 10 12 10 9 6 : 1996 : 4 7 9 9 10 9 10 11 10 11 10 : 1997 : 1 4 8 9 11 10 8 11 11 10 10 7 ID : : : 1995 : 4 16 17 6 7 6 6 9 8 8 7 6 : 1996 : 6 14 18 7 5 6 6 9 8 8 6 7 : 1997 : 6 15 12 8 8 8 6 7 7 9 7 7 ME : : : 1995 : 2 5 7 9 9 11 11 17 18 7 4 : 1996 : 1 8 7 7 8 10 9 14 16 9 11 : 1997 : 1 6 7 8 8 10 9 15 17 10 9 MI : : : 1995 : 5 11 15 13 13 11 6 9 11 6 : 1996 : 1 9 10 11 11 9 12 11 10 9 5 2 : 1997 : 3 9 10 8 11 11 11 12 11 8 6 MN : : : 1995 : 2 30 26 6 4 5 5 6 8 6 2 : 1996 : 6 22 19 11 5 5 7 8 8 5 4 : 1997 : 5 22 25 11 7 5 6 7 7 5 NY : : : 1995 : 6 15 15 17 16 12 8 6 4 1 : 1996 : 7 17 17 14 14 10 8 7 4 2 : 1997 : 8 15 15 16 15 13 9 5 3 1 ND : : : 1995 : 3 14 16 9 10 9 9 8 9 11 2 : 1996 : 4 12 22 8 7 7 8 10 7 6 7 2 : 1997 : 1 12 16 13 8 12 9 9 8 6 5 1 OR : : : 1995 : 1 12 16 25 7 6 6 5 5 7 7 1 2 : 1996 : 1 14 16 26 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 5 1 : 1997 : 1 9 14 30 8 6 5 6 6 5 6 3 1 PA : : : 1995 : 18 18 18 13 13 9 5 3 2 1 : 1996 : 1 12 15 13 11 9 10 8 9 6 4 2 : 1997 : 1 13 13 12 12 12 10 8 7 8 3 1 WA : : : 1995 : 16 13 32 7 3 4 4 7 5 4 4 1 : 1996 : 17 11 31 8 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 2 : 1997 : 12 14 31 7 4 4 4 6 6 6 5 1 WI : : : 1995 : 1 9 17 13 12 7 10 9 11 8 3 : 1996 : 1 6 20 14 10 7 8 11 9 7 4 3 : 1997 : 1 7 17 14 10 9 8 11 10 7 4 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potato Stocks Down 1 Percent March 1, 1999 potato stocks totaled 174 million cwt, down 1 percent from a year ago and 8 percent below two years ago. Storage accounted for 41 percent of 1998 fall production, down 2 percentage points from a year ago. Disappearance from the start of harvest to March 1 totaled 251 million cwt, up 6 percent from last year but 1 percent below the record high two years ago. February disappearance totaled a record high 37.0 million cwt, 1 percent above last year and up slightly from two years ago. Shrink and loss to date of 25.2 million cwt was up 17 percent from last year but 3 percent below two years ago. Processing of 1998 crop potatoes so far this season totaled 129 million cwt, up 9 percent from the 1997 crop but 2 percent below the 1996 crop. February processing used a record 20.6 million cwt of raw potatoes, up 6 percent from last year and 2 percent above the previous record two years ago. Eastern States stored 9.9 million cwt of potatoes on March 1, 1999, down 17 percent from a year ago and 23 percent below two years ago. Maine's holdings were down 18 percent from a year ago and Pennsylvania's stocks were off 33 percent. New York's stocks were up 13 percent from last year. Central States accounted for 38.1 million cwt of potato stocks this March, up 9 percent from 1998 but 5 percent below two years ago. North Dakota's stocks were up 27 percent and Wisconsin was up 4 percent. Michigan was up 3 percent and Minnesota was 1 percent above last year. Western States held 126 million cwt of potatoes in storage on March 1, 1999, down 2 percent from last year and 8 percent below March 1997. Idaho's stocks were down 3 percent and accounted for 54 percent of the Western total. California's stocks were down 11 percent and Colorado dropped 8 percent. Washington and Oregon potato stocks were equal to last year. Montana's storage was up 13 percent. Reliability of March 1 Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 stocks estimate is 3.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 174 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.9 percent or approximately 6.8 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.7 percent or approximately 11.7 million cwt. The 10-year (1989-98) record of the differences between the March 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 5.5 million cwt, ranging from 0.4 million to 13.1 million cwt. During the 10-year period, the March 1 estimate has been below the final 9 out of 10 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final March Stocks, United States, 1988-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1988 : 118,960 95.6 124,485 1989 : 115,780 99.3 116,600 1990 : 126,030 93.7 134,470 1991 : 146,180 100.2 145,820 1992 : 139,665 91.4 152,795 1993 : 146,080 95.2 153,435 1994 : 163,305 96.3 169,570 1995 : 152,255 97.6 156,020 1996 : 184,565 97.5 189,210 1997 : 170,325 96.8 175,870 1998 : 174,100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on April 14, 1999. 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