Pot 1-2 (4-99) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 14, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. April Potato Stocks Down 2 Percent The 15 major potato States held 131 million cwt of potatoes on April 1, 1999, down 2 percent from last year and 11 percent below April 1997. Storage accounted for 31 percent of 1998 fall production, 1 percent less than a year ago. Disappearance, at 294 million cwt, is up 5 percent from last year but 1 percent below the record high from the 1996 crop. Processor usage in the eight major States, totaled 149 million cwt, up 8 percent from last year. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1989-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1989 : 316,097 202,050 173,550 144,290 116,600 84,320 50,675 1990 : 344,200 225,500 194,460 162,850 134,470 101,150 63,040 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 376,954 249,410 217,300 185,490 153,435 115,170 72,860 1994 : 410,839 273,290 238,560 202,470 169,570 129,825 87,600 1995 : 394,785 256,710 223,550 189,360 156,020 115,855 75,870 1996 : 443,704 295,100 261,320 226,080 189,210 147,585 103,210 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 424,897 282,300 246,220 211,100 174,100 130,890 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 8 States, 1995-98 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Malheur Co : 1995 : 27,310 35,040 43,260 51,530 59,060 66,690 89,250 1996 : 31,060 38,210 45,420 54,640 62,570 70,720 96,970 1997 : 26,880 33,950 41,050 49,470 57,620 65,750 91,450 1998 : 27,510 34,700 42,670 51,210 60,040 : ME 2/ : 1995 : 1,455 1,850 2,430 2,850 3,435 3,965 5,725 1996 : 1,790 2,115 2,820 3,280 3,820 4,420 6,495 1997 : 1,250 1,720 2,265 2,735 3,355 3,900 5,870 1998 : 1,180 1,710 2,260 2,983 3,595 : WA & OR - Other : 1995 : 30,000 35,170 39,460 45,280 51,730 57,360 70,250 1996 : 31,670 36,660 41,700 48,740 55,570 62,320 80,970 1997 : 28,580 33,990 38,690 46,400 53,720 59,780 76,930 1998 : 33,460 38,895 45,650 53,290 60,930 : Oth Sts 3/ : 1995 : 12,650 15,630 18,815 21,985 25,510 28,610 33,580 1996 : 13,720 17,000 20,645 24,085 27,650 30,830 43,100 1997 : 11,645 13,960 17,115 19,905 23,515 26,365 37,842 1998 : 11,020 13,785 17,510 21,185 24,485 : Total : 1995 : 71,415 87,690 103,965 121,645 139,735 156,625 198,805 1996 : 78,240 93,985 110,585 130,745 149,610 168,290 227,535 1997 : 68,355 83,620 99,120 118,510 138,210 155,795 212,092 1998 : 73,170 89,090 108,090 128,668 149,050 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MI, MN, ND, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on April 1, 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 1997 : Crop of 1998 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Apr 1, : of : Prod : Apr 1, : of : : 1998 : Prod : : 1999 1/ : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 4,200 1,500 36 3,708 1,200 32 CO : 24,993 10,500 42 25,360 9,100 36 ID : 140,314 56,000 40 139,650 53,500 38 ME : 19,080 7,400 39 18,060 6,000 33 MI : 14,250 2,300 16 14,725 2,200 15 MN : 20,440 6,800 33 21,170 6,700 32 MT : 3,328 700 21 3,180 1,780 56 NE 2/ : 7,761 1,210 8,175 1,140 NY : 7,150 400 6 7,290 350 5 ND : 22,000 7,000 32 28,670 9,500 33 OH 2/ : 1,170 1,200 OR : 27,319 9,800 36 26,229 10,500 40 PA : 3,173 480 15 3,360 420 13 WA : 88,160 22,500 26 93,225 21,500 23 WI : 30,175 7,600 25 30,895 7,000 23 : 15 States : 413,513 134,190 32 424,897 130,890 31 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and seed to plant 1999 potatoes; 1998 crop seed usage totaled 30.0 million cwt. 2/ Combined to prevent disclosure of individual operations. NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past five years averaged 90.8 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaining 9.2 percent. Most seed for use the following year is still on hand April 1, but remains part of stocks until moved or planted. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1993-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1993 : 387,885 353,052 91.0 34,833 9.0 29,076 1994 : 422,345 380,818 90.2 41,527 9.8 29,428 1995 : 404,852 370,679 91.6 34,173 8.4 30,561 1996 : 454,388 408,247 89.8 46,141 10.2 29,138 1997 : 423,190 387,089 91.5 36,101 8.5 29,975 1998 : 434,368 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Production, April 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 States and Fall Season, 1995-98 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :--------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Apr 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Seed :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 1995: 5,330 1,700 242 10 460 4,860 : 1996: 4,600 1,700 200 23 472 4,105 : 1997: 4,200 1,500 206 20 340 3,840 : 1998: 3,708 1,200 CO : : : 1995: 23,808 9,100 1,950 1,285 2,048 20,475 : 1996: 29,175 12,900 1,925 1,485 3,975 23,715 : 1997: 24,993 10,500 1,895 1,340 2,773 20,880 : 1998: 25,360 9,100 ID : : : 1995: 132,657 49,500 8,700 1,785 8,920 121,952 : 1996: 142,800 56,000 8,600 1,500 10,100 131,200 : 1997: 140,314 56,000 8,700 1,130 9,258 129,926 : 1998: 139,650 53,500 ME : : : 1995: 17,160 5,700 1,716 420 1,025 15,715 : 1996: 21,175 8,400 1,584 395 1,800 18,980 : 1997: 19,080 7,400 1,430 275 1,760 17,045 : 1998: 18,060 6,000 MI : : : 1995: 16,350 2,700 962 168 690 15,492 : 1996: 13,800 1,900 768 300 1,300 12,200 : 1997: 14,250 2,300 864 200 1,300 12,750 : 1998: 14,725 2,200 MN : : : 1995: 20,790 6,800 1,573 346 1,757 18,687 : 1996: 24,600 8,500 1,348 445 4,158 19,997 : 1997: 20,440 6,800 1,640 450 1,717 18,273 : 1998: 21,170 6,700 MT : : : 1995: 2,940 1,750 239 128 147 2,665 : 1996: 3,213 1,900 239 137 221 2,855 : 1997: 3,328 700 244 152 208 2,968 : 1998: 3,180 1,780 NE 1/ : : : 1995: 3,680 705 292 187 284 3,209 : 1996: 4,402 1,025 451 169 439 3,794 : 1997: 7,761 1,210 462 203 380 7,178 : 1998: 8,175 1,140 NY : : : 1995: 7,425 400 594 155 290 6,980 : 1996: 7,420 350 583 127 341 6,952 : 1997: 7,150 400 607 139 315 6,696 : 1998: 7,290 350 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, April 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 States and Fall Season, 1995-98 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :--------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Apr 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Seed :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 1995: 25,410 7,000 2,211 280 2,800 22,330 : 1996: 28,820 10,000 2,188 360 5,270 23,190 : 1997: 22,000 7,000 2,142 355 2,266 19,379 : 1998: 28,670 9,500 OH 1/ : : : 1995: 1,404 107 4 10 1,390 : 1996: 1,275 109 5 35 1,235 : 1997: 1,170 105 8 37 1,125 : 1998: 1,200 OR : : : 1995: 24,788 7,500 1,475 148 1,450 23,190 : 1996: 30,124 13,300 1,345 305 2,560 27,259 : 1997: 27,319 9,800 1,405 195 1,555 25,569 : 1998: 26,229 10,500 PA : : : 1995: 4,080 400 314 20 102 3,958 : 1996: 4,160 410 266 81 320 3,759 : 1997: 3,173 480 276 78 176 2,919 : 1998: 3,360 420 WA : : : 1995: 80,850 18,000 3,912 300 6,400 74,150 : 1996: 94,990 23,000 3,648 300 6,800 87,890 : 1997: 88,160 22,500 3,840 300 6,400 81,460 : 1998: 93,225 21,500 WI : : : 1995: 28,113 4,600 1,806 298 1,350 26,465 : 1996: 33,150 8,200 1,710 320 1,425 31,405 : 1997: 30,175 7,600 1,764 275 1,448 28,452 : 1998: 30,895 7,000 15 Sts : : : 1995: 394,785 115,855 26,093 5,534 27,733 361,518 : 1996: 443,704 147,585 24,964 5,952 39,216 398,536 : 1997: 413,513 134,190 25,580 5,120 29,933 378,460 : 1998: 424,897 130,890 23 Fall: : : 1995: 404,852 26,813 5,569 28,604 370,679 : 1996: 454,388 25,608 6,054 40,087 408,247 : 1997: 423,190 26,224 5,260 30,841 387,089 : 1998: 434,368 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Combined to prevent disclosure of individual operations. Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 1995-97 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CO : : : 1995 : 4 8 10 10 11 10 10 12 10 9 6 : 1996 : 4 7 9 9 10 9 10 11 10 11 10 : 1997 : 1 4 8 9 11 10 8 11 11 10 10 7 ID : : : 1995 : 4 16 17 6 7 6 6 9 8 8 7 6 : 1996 : 6 14 18 7 5 6 6 9 8 8 6 7 : 1997 : 6 15 12 8 8 8 6 7 7 9 7 7 ME : : : 1995 : 2 5 7 9 9 11 11 17 18 7 4 : 1996 : 1 8 7 7 8 10 9 14 16 9 11 : 1997 : 1 6 7 8 8 10 9 15 17 10 9 MI : : : 1995 : 5 11 15 13 13 11 6 9 11 6 : 1996 : 1 9 10 11 11 9 12 11 10 9 5 2 : 1997 : 3 9 10 8 11 11 11 12 11 8 6 MN : : : 1995 : 2 30 26 6 4 5 5 6 8 6 2 : 1996 : 6 22 19 11 5 5 7 8 8 5 4 : 1997 : 5 22 25 11 7 5 6 7 7 5 NY : : : 1995 : 6 15 15 17 16 12 8 6 4 1 : 1996 : 7 17 17 14 14 10 8 7 4 2 : 1997 : 8 15 15 16 15 13 9 5 3 1 ND : : : 1995 : 3 14 16 9 10 9 9 8 9 11 2 : 1996 : 4 12 22 8 7 7 8 10 7 6 7 2 : 1997 : 1 12 16 13 8 12 9 9 8 6 5 1 OR : : : 1995 : 1 12 16 25 7 6 6 5 5 7 7 1 2 : 1996 : 1 14 16 26 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 5 1 : 1997 : 1 9 14 30 8 6 5 6 6 5 6 3 1 PA : : : 1995 : 18 18 18 13 13 9 5 3 2 1 : 1996 : 1 12 15 13 11 9 10 8 9 6 4 2 : 1997 : 1 13 13 12 12 12 10 8 7 8 3 1 WA : : : 1995 : 16 13 32 7 3 4 4 7 5 4 4 1 : 1996 : 17 11 31 8 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 2 : 1997 : 12 14 31 7 4 4 4 6 6 6 5 1 WI : : : 1995 : 1 9 17 13 12 7 10 9 11 8 3 : 1996 : 1 6 20 14 10 7 8 11 9 7 4 3 : 1997 : 1 7 17 14 10 9 8 11 10 7 4 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potato Stocks Down 2 Percent April 1, 1999 potato stocks totaled 131 million cwt, down 2 percent from a year ago and 11 percent below two years ago. Storage accounted for 31 percent of 1998 fall production, 1 percent less than a year ago. Disappearance from the start of harvest to April 1 totaled 294 million cwt, up 5 percent from last year but 1 percent below the record high two years ago. March disappearance totaled a record high 43.2 million cwt, 4 percent above the last two years. Shrink and loss to date is estimated at 27.7 million cwt, up 18 percent from last year but 1 percent below two years ago. Processing of 1998 crop potatoes so far this season totaled 149 million cwt, up 8 percent from the 1997 crop but less than 1 percent below the 1996 crop. March processing used a record 20.4 million cwt of raw potatoes, up 3 percent from last year and 8 percent above two years ago. Eastern States stored 6.8 million cwt of potatoes on April 1, 1999, down 18 percent from a year ago and 26 percent below two years ago. Maine's holdings were down 19 percent from a year ago. New York's and Pennsylvania's stocks were off 12 percent. Central States accounted for 26.5 million cwt of potato stocks this April, up 7 percent from April 1998 but 10 percent below two years ago. North Dakota's stocks were up 36 percent from last year but all other Central States were down. Wisconsin's stocks were off 8 percent, Michigan was down 4 percent, and Minnesota was down 1 percent from last year. Western States held 97.6 million cwt of potatoes in storage on April 1, 1999, down 3 percent from last year and 10 percent below April 1997. Idaho's stocks were down 4 percent and account for 55 percent of the Western States' total. California's stocks were down 20 percent and Colorado dropped 13 percent. Washington's stocks were down 4 percent but Oregon stored 7 percent more than a year ago. Montana's seed movement is late with remaining storage 154 percent above last year. Reliability of April 1 Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 stocks estimate is 5.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 131 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 5.1 percent or approximately 6.7 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 8.8 percent or approximately 11.5 million cwt. The 10-year (1989-98) record of the differences between the April 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 5.3 million cwt, ranging from 0.7 million to 12.8 million cwt. During the 10-year period, the April 1 stocks forecast has been below the final 9 out of 10 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final April Stocks, United States, 1988-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1988 : 86,745 93.7 92,585 1989 : 83,540 99.1 84,320 1990 : 91,910 90.9 101,150 1991 : 109,600 100.7 108,865 1992 : 103,010 89.0 115,785 1993 : 108,455 94.2 115,170 1994 : 123,285 95.0 129,825 1995 : 112,925 97.5 115,855 1996 : 143,235 97.1 147,585 1997 : 129,340 96.4 134,190 1998 : 130,890 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on May 14, 1999. 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