Pot 1-2 (2-00) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released February 14, 2000, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. February Potato Stocks Down 2 Percent The 15 major potato States held 206 million cwt of potatoes in storage on February 1, 2000, down 2 percent from last year and 3 percent below two years ago. Stocks accounted for 49 percent of 1999 fall production, down 1 percentage point from a year ago. This year's storage held more russets but fewer reds than a year earlier. Disappearance of 215 million cwt, is up 1 percent from last year. Processing, at 106 million cwt is down 3 percent. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1990-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1990 : 344,200 225,500 194,460 162,850 134,470 101,150 63,040 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 376,954 249,410 217,300 185,490 153,435 115,170 72,860 1994 : 410,839 273,290 238,560 202,470 169,570 129,825 87,600 1995 : 394,785 256,710 223,550 189,360 156,020 115,855 75,870 1996 : 443,704 295,100 261,320 226,080 189,210 147,635 103,210 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 : 420,567 274,370 238,160 205,780 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 8 States, 1996-99 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 2/: Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal: 1996 : 31,060 38,210 45,420 54,640 62,570 70,720 96,970 1997 : 26,880 33,950 41,050 49,470 57,620 65,750 91,450 1998 : 27,510 34,700 42,670 51,210 60,040 68,550 76,410 92,860 1999 : 27,970 34,490 40,790 : ME 3/ : 1996 : 1,790 2,115 2,820 3,280 3,820 4,420 6,495 1997 : 1,250 1,720 2,265 2,735 3,355 3,900 5,870 1998 : 1,430 1,935 2,530 2,985 3,595 4,180 4,705 5,945 1999 : 1,375 1,670 2,310 : WA & OR-Oth: 1996 : 31,670 36,660 41,700 48,740 55,570 62,320 80,970 1997 : 28,580 33,990 38,690 46,400 53,720 59,780 76,930 1998 : 33,630 38,890 45,650 53,290 60,930 67,180 74,190 83,730 1999 : 33,440 39,620 45,500 : Oth Sts 4/ : 1996 : 13,720 17,000 20,645 24,085 27,650 30,830 43,100 1997 : 11,645 13,960 17,115 19,905 23,515 26,365 37,842 1998 : 11,615 14,550 18,150 20,900 24,710 27,855 31,635 37,662 1999 : 11,785 14,495 17,295 : Total : 1996 : 78,240 93,985 110,585 130,745 149,610 168,290 227,535 1997 : 68,355 83,620 99,120 118,510 138,210 155,795 212,092 1998 : 74,185 90,075 109,000 128,385 149,275 167,765 186,940 220,197 1999 : 74,570 90,275 105,895 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI. 2/ Data not available prior to 1998. 3/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 4/ MI, MN, ND, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on February 1, 1999-00 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 1998 : Crop of 1999 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Feb 1, : of : Prod : Feb 1, : of : : 1999 : Prod : : 2000 1/ : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 3,708 2,000 54 4,005 2,200 55 CO : 25,360 14,200 56 25,762 15,100 59 ID : 138,000 77,500 56 133,330 76,500 57 ME : 18,060 10,500 58 17,813 11,300 63 MI : 14,648 5,400 37 14,963 5,800 39 MN : 21,170 10,500 50 18,020 7,100 39 MT : 3,180 2,850 90 3,325 3,000 90 NE : 8,175 2,900 35 8,904 3,250 37 NY : 7,290 1,500 21 6,758 1,500 22 ND : 28,670 15,000 52 26,400 10,500 40 OH : 1,200 90 8 987 80 8 OR : 26,229 15,800 60 28,020 18,600 66 PA : 3,360 900 27 3,080 850 28 WA : 93,225 36,500 39 95,200 35,000 37 WI : 30,895 14,000 45 34,000 15,000 44 : 15 States : 423,170 209,640 50 420,567 205,780 49 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 11 Selected States, February 1, 1999-00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Potato Types :-------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds : Round Whites : Long Whites : Russets State :-------------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Percent : CO : 4 4 6 2 90 94 ID : 4 5 96 95 ME : 4 3 46 46 9 8 41 43 MI : 1 1 84 89 15 10 MN : 12 4 5 5 3 80 91 NY : 5 5 93 90 2 5 ND : 11 10 18 22 3 6 68 62 OR : 2 1 4 1 94 98 PA : 2 3 98 97 WA : 1 1 3 3 96 96 WI : 2 1 18 24 80 75 : 11 St Avg: 2 1 10 10 3 3 85 86 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Fall Potatoes: Production, February 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 1996-99 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :--------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Feb 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 1996: 4,600 2,500 200 23 472 4,105 : 1997: 4,200 2,100 206 20 340 3,840 : 1998: 3,708 2,000 171 29 720 2,959 : 1999: 4,005 2,200 CO : : : 1996: 29,175 18,100 1,925 1,485 3,975 23,715 : 1997: 24,993 14,700 1,895 1,340 2,773 20,880 : 1998: 25,360 14,200 1,930 1,615 2,615 21,130 : 1999: 25,762 15,100 ID : : : 1996: 142,800 82,000 8,600 1,500 10,100 131,200 : 1997: 140,314 81,000 8,700 1,130 9,258 129,926 : 1998: 138,000 77,500 8,400 1,280 9,756 126,964 : 1999: 133,330 76,500 ME : : : 1996: 21,175 13,100 1,584 395 1,800 18,980 : 1997: 19,080 12,100 1,430 275 1,760 17,045 : 1998: 18,060 10,500 1,496 360 1,740 15,960 : 1999: 17,813 11,300 MI : : : 1996: 13,800 4,600 768 300 1,300 12,200 : 1997: 14,250 5,500 864 200 1,300 12,750 : 1998: 14,648 5,400 888 200 1,348 13,100 : 1999: 14,963 5,800 MN : : : 1996: 24,600 13,200 1,348 445 4,158 19,997 : 1997: 20,440 10,500 1,640 450 1,717 18,273 : 1998: 21,170 10,500 1,400 254 1,440 19,476 : 1999: 18,020 7,100 MT : : : 1996: 3,213 2,850 239 137 221 2,855 : 1997: 3,328 2,980 244 152 208 2,968 : 1998: 3,180 2,850 253 145 265 2,770 : 1999: 3,325 3,000 NE : : : 1996: 4,402 2,440 451 169 439 3,794 : 1997: 7,761 3,300 462 203 380 7,178 : 1998: 8,175 2,900 469 166 881 7,128 : 1999: 8,904 3,250 NY : : : 1996: 7,420 1,400 583 127 341 6,952 : 1997: 7,150 1,500 607 139 315 6,696 : 1998: 7,290 1,500 572 110 330 6,850 : 1999: 6,758 1,500 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, February 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 1996-99 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :--------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Feb 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 1996: 28,820 15,000 2,188 360 5,270 23,190 : 1997: 22,000 11,900 2,142 355 2,266 19,379 : 1998: 28,670 15,000 2,250 395 2,840 25,435 : 1999: 26,400 10,500 OH : : : 1996: 1,275 90 109 5 35 1,235 : 1997: 1,170 82 105 8 37 1,125 : 1998: 1,200 90 100 8 37 1,155 : 1999: 987 80 OR : : : 1996: 30,124 19,000 1,345 305 2,560 27,259 : 1997: 27,319 16,000 1,405 195 1,555 25,569 : 1998: 26,229 15,800 1,382 195 2,206 23,828 : 1999: 28,020 18,600 PA : : : 1996: 4,160 1,300 266 81 320 3,759 : 1997: 3,173 1,200 276 78 176 2,919 : 1998: 3,360 900 261 50 252 3,058 : 1999: 3,080 850 WA : : : 1996: 94,990 36,500 3,648 300 6,800 87,890 : 1997: 88,160 36,500 3,840 300 6,400 81,460 : 1998: 93,225 36,500 4,080 300 6,500 86,425 : 1999: 95,200 35,000 WI : : : 1996: 33,150 14,000 1,710 320 1,425 31,405 : 1997: 30,175 13,200 1,764 275 1,448 28,452 : 1998: 30,895 14,000 1,720 265 2,360 28,270 : 1999: 34,000 15,000 15 Sts : : : 1996: 443,704 226,080 24,964 5,952 39,216 398,536 : 1997: 413,513 212,562 25,580 5,120 29,933 378,460 : 1998: 423,170 209,640 25,372 5,372 33,290 384,508 : 1999: 420,567 205,780 23 Fall: : : 1996: 454,388 25,608 6,054 40,087 408,247 : 1997: 423,190 26,224 5,260 30,841 387,089 : 1998: 432,737 25,929 5,584 34,231 392,922 : 1999: 429,847 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 1996-98 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 1996 : : 1997 : : 1998 : 13 12 13 11 10 12 10 8 7 4 CO : : : 1996 : 4 7 9 9 10 9 10 11 10 11 10 : 1997 : 1 4 8 9 11 10 8 11 11 10 10 7 : 1998 : 5 8 9 12 10 10 12 11 10 9 4 ID : : : 1996 : 6 14 18 7 5 6 6 9 8 8 6 7 : 1997 : 6 15 12 8 8 8 6 7 7 9 7 7 : 1998 : 6 11 20 6 6 7 6 8 9 9 6 6 ME : : : 1996 : 1 8 7 7 8 10 9 14 16 9 11 : 1997 : 1 6 7 8 8 10 9 15 17 10 9 : 1998 : 1 7 9 9 9 10 11 14 12 9 9 MI : : : 1996 : 1 9 10 11 11 9 12 11 10 9 5 2 : 1997 : 3 9 10 8 11 11 11 12 11 8 6 : 1998 : 3 8 9 9 9 12 14 9 12 10 5 MN : : : 1996 : 6 22 19 11 5 5 7 8 8 5 4 : 1997 : 5 22 25 11 7 5 6 7 7 5 : 1998 : 11 16 14 10 5 7 6 8 9 6 8 NY : : : 1996 : 7 17 17 14 14 10 8 7 4 2 : 1997 : 8 15 15 16 15 13 9 5 3 1 : 1998 : 7 16 16 16 15 11 8 6 4 1 ND : : : 1996 : 4 12 22 8 7 7 8 10 7 6 7 2 : 1997 : 1 12 16 13 8 12 9 9 8 6 5 1 : 1998 : 3 13 14 10 10 8 7 7 9 10 6 3 OR : : : 1996 : 1 14 16 26 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 5 1 : 1997 : 1 9 14 30 8 6 5 6 6 5 6 3 1 : 1998 : 2 12 15 27 8 5 4 5 6 6 4 4 2 PA : : : 1996 : 1 12 15 13 11 9 10 8 9 6 4 2 : 1997 : 1 13 13 12 12 12 10 8 7 8 3 1 : 1998 : 14 12 11 12 15 11 9 7 6 2 1 WA : : : 1996 : 17 11 31 8 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 2 : 1997 : 12 14 31 7 4 4 4 6 6 6 5 1 : 1998 : 16 13 25 7 3 5 6 7 5 6 6 1 WI : : : 1996 : 1 6 20 14 10 7 8 11 9 7 4 3 : 1997 : 1 7 17 14 10 9 8 11 10 7 4 2 : 1998 : 1 6 18 13 10 10 10 9 9 8 4 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potato Stocks Down 2 Percent February 1, 2000 potato stocks totaled 206 million cwt, down 2 percent from a year ago and 3 percent below two years ago. Storage accounted for 49 percent of fall production, down 1 percentage point from a year ago. Stocks by type were 1 percent reds, 10 percent round whites, 3 percent long white (Shepodys), and 86 percent russets, with more russets but fewer reds than a year ago. Disappearance from the start of harvest to February 1 totaled 215 million cwt this season, up 1 percent from last year and 7 percent above two years ago. January disappearance of 32.4 million cwt was 12 percent below last year and down 5 percent from two years ago. Shrink and loss of 23.4 million cwt was down 1 percent from last year but 21 percent above two years ago. Processing of 1999 crop potatoes so far this season totaled 106 million cwt, down 3 percent from the 1998 crop but 7 percent above the 1997 crop. In January, processors used 15.6 million cwt of potatoes, down 17 percent from last year but 1 percent above two years ago. Eastern States stored 13.7 million cwt of potatoes on February 1, 2000, up 6 percent from a year ago but 8 percent below two years ago. Maine's holdings were up 8 percent, New York's were the same, but Pennsylvania's stocks were off 6 percent from last year. Central States accounted for 41.7 million cwt of potato stocks this February, down 13 percent from 1999 and 6 percent below 1998. Minnesota's stocks dropped by 32 percent and North Dakota's stocks fell 30 percent from last year. Michigan and Wisconsin were up 7 percent each. Nebraska's stocks were up 12 percent, while Ohio was off 11 percent. Western States held 150 million cwt of potatoes in storage on February 1, 2000, up 1 percent from last year but 2 percent below 1998. Oregon's stocks were up 18 percent from a year ago, but were mostly offset by a 4 percent decline in Washington and a 1 percent dip in Idaho. Colorado's stocks were up 6 percent and Montana's were up 5 percent. California's potato stocks were up 10 percent. Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 15 Fall Storage States, 1996-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 1996 : 24.2 26.1 28.2 30.0 32.3 34.8 39.2 1997 : 15.3 17.3 19.3 21.3 23.5 25.6 30.0 1998 : 19.8 21.7 23.6 25.3 27.3 29.2 30.9 33.1 1999 : 17.2 21.1 23.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reliability of February 1 Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 stocks estimate is 3.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 206 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.3 percent or approximately 6.8 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.6 percent or approximately 11.5 million cwt. The 10-year (1990-99) record of differences between the February 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates were up an average of 5.3 million cwt, ranging from 14.2 million cwt below the final to 1.46 million cwt above. During the 10-year period, the February 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 8 out of 10 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final February 1 Stocks, United States, 1989-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1989 : 143,150 99.2 144,290 1990 : 154,310 94.8 162,850 1991 : 178,965 100.3 178,515 1992 : 170,385 92.3 184,560 1993 : 178,070 95.7 186,090 1994 : 196,005 96.8 202,470 1995 : 184,755 97.6 189,360 1996 : 220,465 97.5 226,080 1997 : 205,850 96.8 212,562 1998 : 211,100 100.7 209,640 1999 : 205,780 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.7 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaining 9.3 percent. Most seed for use the following year is still on hand February 1st, but remains part of stocks until moved or planted. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1994-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1994 : 422,345 380,818 90.2 41,527 9.8 29,428 1995 : 404,852 370,679 91.6 34,173 8.4 30,561 1996 : 454,388 408,247 89.8 46,141 10.2 29,138 1997 : 423,190 387,089 91.5 36,101 8.5 29,975 1998 : 432,737 392,922 90.8 39,815 9.2 29,516 1999 : 429,847 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on March 14, 2000. 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