Pot 1-2 (2-01) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released February 14, 2001, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. February Potato Stocks Record High, Up 13 Percent The 15 major potato States held a record high 235 million cwt of potatoes on February 1, 2001, up 13 percent from last year and 4 percent above the previous record set in February 1997. Potatoes in storage accounted for 51 percent of the 2000 fall storage States' production, up 2 percentage points from a year ago. This year's storage held more reds but fewer round whites than a year earlier. Disappearance, at a record high 227 million cwt, is up 6 percent from last year and 4 percent above the previous record set during the 1996 season. Also, potatoes used for processing to February 1 was a record high 113 million cwt, up 4 percent from last year and less than 1 percent above the previous record set during the 1996 season for comparable States. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1991-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 376,954 249,410 217,300 185,490 153,435 115,170 72,860 1994 : 410,839 273,290 238,560 202,470 169,570 129,825 87,600 1995 : 394,785 256,710 223,550 189,360 156,020 115,855 75,870 1996 : 443,704 295,100 261,320 226,080 189,210 147,635 103,210 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 : 461,827 309,520 272,960 235,050 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 1997-2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 2/: Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal: 1997 : 26,880 33,950 41,050 49,470 57,620 65,750 91,450 1998 : 27,510 34,700 42,670 51,210 60,040 68,550 76,410 92,860 1999 : 27,970 34,490 40,790 49,220 57,820 66,080 74,110 88,210 2000 : 29,290 35,720 43,470 : ME 3/ : 1997 : 1,250 1,720 2,265 2,735 3,355 3,900 5,870 1998 : 1,430 1,935 2,530 2,985 3,595 4,180 4,705 5,945 1999 : 1,270 1,700 2,385 3,070 3,765 4,560 5,150 6,670 2000 : 1,845 2,475 3,105 : WA & OR-Oth: 1997 : 28,580 33,990 38,690 46,400 53,720 59,780 76,930 1998 : 33,630 38,890 45,650 53,290 60,930 67,180 74,190 83,730 1999 : 33,320 39,620 45,500 53,350 61,080 67,230 74,840 83,210 2000 : 34,770 40,970 47,720 : Oth Sts 4/ : 1997 : 11,645 13,960 17,115 19,905 23,515 26,365 37,842 1998 : 11,570 14,465 18,030 20,850 24,850 28,190 31,365 39,865 1999 : 12,455 15,035 17,950 20,855 24,305 27,220 30,410 36,435 2000 5/ : 12,650 15,860 18,255 : Total : 1997 : 68,355 83,620 99,120 118,510 138,210 155,795 212,092 1998 : 74,140 89,990 108,880 128,335 149,415 168,100 186,670 222,400 1999 : 75,015 90,845 106,625 126,495 146,970 165,090 184,510 214,525 2000 5/ : 78,555 95,025 112,550 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, and WI. 2/ Data not available prior to 1998. 3/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 4/ MN, ND, NV, SD, and WI in 2000. MI, MN, ND, and WI in 1997-1999. 5/ January 1 data revised. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on February 1, 2000-01 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 1999 : Crop of 2000 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Feb 1, : of : Prod : Feb 1, : of : : 2000 : Prod : : 2001 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 4,005 2,200 55 3,741 1,700 45 CO : 25,762 15,100 59 27,972 15,100 54 ID : 133,330 76,500 57 152,320 86,500 57 ME : 17,813 11,300 63 17,920 10,900 61 MI : 14,963 5,800 39 14,963 5,200 35 MN : 18,020 7,500 42 21,240 11,600 55 MT : 3,325 3,000 90 3,503 3,150 90 NE : 8,904 3,250 37 10,127 4,200 41 NY : 6,758 1,800 27 5,964 1,300 22 ND : 26,400 11,000 42 26,950 13,300 49 OH : 987 100 10 1,134 150 13 OR : 28,020 18,600 66 30,683 20,500 67 PA : 3,080 1,000 32 3,510 950 27 WA : 95,200 35,000 37 108,000 47,000 44 WI : 34,000 15,000 44 33,800 13,500 40 : 15 States : 420,567 207,150 49 461,827 235,050 51 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 11 Selected States, February 1, 2000-2001 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Potato Types :-------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds : Round Whites : Long Whites : Russets State :-------------------------------------------------------------- : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Percent : CO : 4 5 2 2 94 93 ID : 5 6 95 94 ME : 3 4 46 45 8 2 43 49 MI : 1 1 89 86 10 13 MN : 4 9 5 4 91 87 NY : 5 5 90 90 5 5 ND : 10 12 22 15 6 3 62 70 OR : 1 1 1 98 99 PA : 3 3 97 97 WA : 1 1 3 3 96 96 WI : 1 4 24 36 75 60 : 11 St Avg: 1 2 10 9 3 3 86 86 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Fall Potatoes: Production, February 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 1997-2000 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Feb 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 1997: 4,200 2,100 206 20 340 3,840 : 1998: 3,708 2,000 157 29 720 2,959 : 1999: 4,005 2,200 179 17 383 3,605 : 2000: 3,741 1,700 CO : : : 1997: 24,993 14,700 1,895 1,340 2,773 20,880 : 1998: 25,360 14,200 1,930 1,615 2,615 21,130 : 1999: 25,762 15,100 1,971 1,705 2,967 21,090 : 2000: 27,972 15,100 ID : : : 1997: 140,314 81,000 8,700 1,130 9,258 129,926 : 1998: 138,000 77,500 8,300 1,280 9,756 126,964 : 1999: 133,330 76,500 8,700 1,150 9,300 122,880 : 2000: 152,320 86,500 ME : : : 1997: 19,080 12,100 1,430 275 1,760 17,045 : 1998: 18,060 10,500 1,430 360 1,740 15,960 : 1999: 17,813 11,300 1,408 330 1,850 15,633 : 2000: 17,920 10,900 MI : : : 1997: 14,250 5,500 864 200 1,300 12,750 : 1998: 14,648 5,400 888 200 1,348 13,100 : 1999: 14,963 5,800 1,005 213 1,300 13,450 : 2000: 14,963 5,200 MN : : : 1997: 20,440 10,500 1,640 450 1,717 18,273 : 1998: 21,170 10,500 1,400 254 1,440 19,476 : 1999: 18,020 7,500 1,254 170 1,980 15,870 : 2000: 21,240 11,600 MT : : : 1997: 3,328 2,980 244 152 208 2,968 : 1998: 3,180 2,850 253 145 265 2,770 : 1999: 3,325 3,000 288 151 213 2,961 : 2000: 3,503 3,150 NE : : : 1997: 7,761 3,300 462 203 380 7,178 : 1998: 8,175 2,900 469 166 881 7,128 : 1999: 8,904 3,250 598 209 742 7,953 : 2000: 10,127 4,200 NY : : : 1997: 7,150 1,500 607 139 315 6,696 : 1998: 7,290 1,500 572 110 330 6,850 : 1999: 6,758 1,800 484 95 323 6,340 : 2000: 5,964 1,300 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, February 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 1997-2000 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Feb 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 1997: 22,000 11,900 2,142 355 2,266 19,379 : 1998: 28,670 15,000 2,178 395 2,840 25,435 : 1999: 26,400 11,000 2,232 340 4,600 21,460 : 2000: 26,950 13,300 OH : : : 1997: 1,170 82 105 8 37 1,125 : 1998: 1,200 90 100 8 37 1,155 : 1999: 987 100 84 6 60 921 : 2000: 1,134 150 OR : : : 1997: 27,319 16,000 1,405 195 1,555 25,569 : 1998: 26,229 15,800 1,334 195 2,206 23,828 : 1999: 28,020 18,600 1,368 239 1,607 26,174 : 2000: 30,683 20,500 PA : : : 1997: 3,173 1,200 276 78 176 2,919 : 1998: 3,360 900 261 50 252 3,058 : 1999: 3,080 1,000 270 31 172 2,877 : 2000: 3,510 950 WA : : : 1997: 88,160 36,500 3,840 300 6,400 81,460 : 1998: 93,225 36,500 4,080 300 6,500 86,425 : 1999: 95,200 35,000 4,200 300 6,500 88,400 : 2000: 108,000 47,000 WI : : : 1997: 30,175 13,200 1,764 275 1,448 28,452 : 1998: 30,895 14,000 1,720 265 2,360 28,270 : 1999: 34,000 15,000 1,720 310 1,420 32,270 : 2000: 33,800 13,500 15 Sts : : : 1997: 413,513 212,562 25,580 5,120 29,933 378,460 : 1998: 423,170 209,640 25,072 5,372 33,290 384,508 : 1999: 420,567 207,150 25,761 5,266 33,417 381,884 : 2000: 461,827 235,050 Fall St: : : 1997: 423,190 26,224 5,260 30,841 387,089 : 1998: 432,737 25,657 5,584 34,231 392,922 : 1999: 429,847 26,355 5,377 34,260 390,210 : 2000: 470,504 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 1997-1999 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 1997 : : 1998 : 13 12 13 11 10 12 10 8 7 4 : 1999 : 5 12 14 10 12 9 10 10 11 7 CO : : : 1997 : 1 4 8 9 11 10 8 11 11 10 10 7 : 1998 : 5 8 9 12 10 10 12 11 10 9 4 : 1999 : 4 7 10 10 10 10 12 11 10 10 6 ID : : : 1997 : 6 15 12 8 8 8 6 7 7 9 7 7 : 1998 : 6 11 20 6 6 7 6 8 9 9 6 6 : 1999 : 3 15 18 6 6 5 7 9 10 9 6 6 ME : : : 1997 : 1 6 7 8 8 10 9 15 17 10 9 : 1998 : 1 7 9 9 9 10 11 14 12 9 9 : 1999 : 3 6 7 7 9 10 10 12 16 11 9 MI : : : 1997 : 3 9 10 8 11 11 11 12 11 8 6 : 1998 : 3 8 9 9 9 12 14 9 12 10 5 : 1999 : 3 7 8 9 15 12 9 9 9 11 6 2 MN : : : 1997 : 5 22 25 11 7 5 6 7 7 5 : 1998 : 11 16 14 10 5 7 6 8 9 6 8 : 1999 : 8 12 13 11 8 8 7 9 8 6 5 5 NY : : : 1997 : 8 15 15 16 15 13 9 5 3 1 : 1998 : 7 16 16 16 15 11 8 6 4 1 : 1999 : 4 21 18 11 9 10 8 9 10 ND : : : 1997 : 1 12 16 13 8 12 9 9 8 6 5 1 : 1998 : 3 13 14 10 10 8 7 7 9 10 6 3 : 1999 : 2 13 20 7 10 12 7 7 8 7 6 1 OR : : : 1997 : 1 9 14 30 8 6 5 6 6 5 6 3 1 : 1998 : 2 12 15 27 8 5 4 5 6 6 4 4 2 : 1999 : 2 13 10 21 7 6 7 8 7 7 7 3 2 PA : : : 1997 : 1 13 13 12 12 12 10 8 7 8 3 1 : 1998 : 14 12 11 12 15 11 9 7 6 2 1 : 1999 : 14 13 12 12 13 11 9 7 6 2 1 WA : : : 1997 : 12 14 31 7 4 4 4 6 6 6 5 1 : 1998 : 16 13 25 7 3 5 6 7 5 6 6 1 : 1999 : 17 14 24 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 1 WI : : : 1997 : 1 7 17 14 10 9 8 11 10 7 4 2 : 1998 : 1 6 18 13 10 10 10 9 9 8 4 2 : 1999 : 2 7 16 12 11 9 8 10 9 9 5 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potato Stocks Record High, Up 13 Percent February 1, 2001 potato stocks totaled a record high 235 million cwt, up 13 percent from last year and 4 percent above the previous record set in February 1997. Potatoes in storage accounted for 51 percent of the fall storage States' production, up 2 percentage points from a year ago. Stocks by type were 2 percent reds, 9 percent round whites, 3 percent long white, and 86 percent russets, with more reds but fewer round whites than a year ago. Disappearance from the start of harvest to February 1 was a record high 227 million cwt. This disappearance was up 6 percent from last year and 4 percent above the previous record set during the 1996 season. January disappearance of 37.9 million cwt was also record high for the month. Shrink and loss to this point in the season was 27.9 million cwt, up 21 percent from last year and 23 percent above two years ago. This disappearance and loss includes potatoes diverted and destroyed by growers under a cooperative program to reduce surpluses. Processing of 2000 crop potatoes totaled a record high 113 million cwt to February 1, up 4 percent from the 1999 crop and less than 1 percent above the previous record set during the 1996 season for comparable States. In January, processors used 17.5 million cwt of potatoes, up 10 percent from a year ago for comparable States. Revisions in processing data places December usage at 16.5 million cwt instead of the 18.5 million previously reported. Eastern States stored 13.2 million cwt of potatoes on February 1, 2001, down 7 percent from a year ago but 2 percent above two years ago. Maine's holdings were down 4 percent and New York's stocks were off 28 percent from last year. Pennsylvania's storage was down 5 percent from a year ago. Central States accounted for 48.0 million cwt of potato stocks this February 1, 12 percent above 2000 and slightly above 1999. Minnesota's stocks were up 55 percent and Nebraska's were up 29 percent. Stocks in North Dakota were up 21 percent and Ohio was up 50 percent from last year. Wisconsin's and Michigan's potato stocks were each down 10 percent from a year ago. Western States held 174 million cwt of potatoes in storage on February 1, 2001, up 16 percent from last year and 17 percent above 1999. Washington's potato stocks were up 34 percent from a year ago, while Idaho's stocks were up 13 percent, and Oregon's were up 10 percent. Colorado was equal to last year and Montana was up 5 percent. California's potato stocks were down 23 percent from a year ago. Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 15 Fall Storage States, 1997-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/: Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 1997 : 15.3 17.3 19.3 21.3 23.5 25.6 29.9 1998 : 18.4 20.6 22.7 24.7 26.9 29.0 30.9 33.3 1999 : 18.2 21.0 23.0 25.0 27.1 29.2 31.1 33.4 2000 : 19.5 22.5 27.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. Reliability of February 1 Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 stocks estimate is 3.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 235 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.2 percent or approximately 7.5 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.6 percent or approximately 13.2 million cwt. The 10-year (1991-2000) record of differences between the February 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 5.7 million cwt, ranging from 1.46 million cwt above the final to 14.2 million cwt below the final. During the 10-year period, the February 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 8 years and above 2 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final February 1 Stocks, United States, 1990-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1990 : 154,310 94.8 162,850 1991 : 178,965 100.3 178,515 1992 : 170,385 92.3 184,560 1993 : 178,070 96.0 185,490 1994 : 196,005 96.8 202,470 1995 : 184,755 97.6 189,360 1996 : 220,465 97.5 226,080 1997 : 205,850 96.8 212,562 1998 : 211,100 100.7 209,640 1999 : 205,780 99.3 207,150 2000 : 235,050 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Note: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.9 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage and loss and home use accounted for the remaining 9.1 percent. Most seed for use the following crop year is on hand and remains part of stocks until moved or planted. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1995-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1995 : 404,852 370,679 91.6 34,173 8.4 30,561 1996 : 454,388 408,247 89.8 46,141 10.2 29,138 1997 : 423,190 387,089 91.5 36,101 8.5 29,975 1998 : 432,737 392,922 90.8 39,815 9.2 29,217 1999 : 429,847 390,210 90.8 39,637 9.2 29,726 2000 : 470,504 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on March 14, 2001. 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