Pot 1-2 (3-01) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 14, 2001, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. March Potato Stocks Record High, Up 17 Percent The 15 major potato States held a record high 198 million cwt of potatoes on March 1, 2001, up 17 percent from last year and 5 percent above the previous record set March 1, 1997. Potatoes in storage accounted for 43 percent of the 2000 fall storage States' production, up 3 percentage points from a year ago. Disappearance, at a record high 264 million cwt, was up 5 percent from last year and 4 percent above the previous record set during the 1996 season. Potatoes used for processing to March 1 totaled 132 million cwt, up 2 percent from last year and 1 percent above two years ago. February processing of 18.6 million cwt fell 8 percent short of last year for comparable States. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1991-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 376,954 249,410 217,300 185,490 153,435 115,170 72,860 1994 : 410,839 273,290 238,560 202,470 169,570 129,825 87,600 1995 : 394,785 256,710 223,550 189,360 156,020 115,855 75,870 1996 : 443,704 295,100 261,320 226,080 189,210 147,635 103,210 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 : 461,827 309,520 272,960 235,050 198,320 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 1997-2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 2/: Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal: 1997 : 26,880 33,950 41,050 49,470 57,620 65,750 91,450 1998 : 27,510 34,700 42,670 51,210 60,040 68,550 76,410 92,860 1999 : 27,970 34,490 40,790 49,220 57,820 66,080 74,110 88,210 2000 : 29,290 35,720 43,470 50,580 : ME 3/ : 1997 : 1,250 1,720 2,265 2,735 3,355 3,900 5,870 1998 : 1,430 1,935 2,530 2,985 3,595 4,180 4,705 5,945 1999 : 1,270 1,700 2,385 3,070 3,765 4,560 5,150 6,670 2000 : 1,845 2,475 3,105 3,695 : WA & OR-Oth: 1997 : 28,580 33,990 38,690 46,400 53,720 59,780 76,930 1998 : 33,630 38,890 45,650 53,290 60,930 67,180 74,190 83,730 1999 : 33,320 39,620 45,500 53,350 61,080 67,230 74,840 83,210 2000 : 34,770 40,970 47,720 55,250 : Oth Sts 4/ : 1997 : 11,645 13,960 17,115 19,905 23,515 26,365 37,842 1998 : 11,570 14,465 18,030 20,850 24,850 28,190 31,365 39,865 1999 : 12,455 15,035 17,950 20,855 24,305 27,220 30,410 36,435 2000 5/ : 12,650 16,235 18,625 22,030 : Total : 1997 : 68,355 83,620 99,120 118,510 138,210 155,795 212,092 1998 : 74,140 89,990 108,880 128,335 149,415 168,100 186,670 222,400 1999 : 75,015 90,845 106,625 126,495 146,970 165,090 184,510 214,525 2000 5/ : 78,555 95,400 112,920 131,555 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, and WI. 2/ Data not available prior to 1998. 3/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 4/ MN, ND, NV, SD, and WI in 2000. MI, MN, ND, and WI in 1997-1999. 5/ January 1 and February 1 data revised. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on March 1, 2000-01 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 1999 : Crop of 2000 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Mar 1, : of : Prod : Mar 1, : of : : 2000 : Prod : : 2001 1/: Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 4,005 1,800 45 3,741 1,300 35 CO : 25,762 12,900 50 27,972 13,000 46 ID : 133,330 65,000 49 152,320 75,000 49 ME : 17,813 9,400 53 17,920 8,700 49 MI : 14,963 4,200 28 14,963 3,400 23 MN : 18,020 6,200 34 21,240 10,100 48 MT : 3,325 2,700 81 3,503 3,000 86 NE 2/ : 8,904 10,127 NY : 6,758 1,300 19 5,964 700 12 ND : 26,400 9,000 34 26,950 11,100 41 OH 2/ : 987 1,134 OR : 28,020 15,500 55 30,683 17,300 56 PA : 3,080 700 23 3,510 700 20 WA : 95,200 28,000 29 108,000 40,000 37 WI : 34,000 10,600 31 33,800 10,500 31 : Other States : 2,320 3,520 : 15 States : 420,567 169,620 40 461,827 198,320 43 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and seed to plant 2001 crop. Seed usage in 2000 totaled 29.7 million cwt. 2/ Blank States combined into "Other States". Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 15 Fall Storage States, 1997-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/: Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 1997 : 15.3 17.3 19.3 21.3 23.5 25.6 29.9 1998 : 18.4 20.6 22.7 24.7 26.9 29.0 30.9 33.3 1999 : 18.2 21.0 23.0 25.0 27.1 29.2 31.1 33.4 2000 : 19.5 22.5 27.9 31.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. Fall Potatoes: Production, March 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 1997-2000 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Mar 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 1997: 4,200 1,800 206 20 340 3,840 : 1998: 3,708 1,600 157 29 720 2,959 : 1999: 4,005 1,800 179 17 383 3,605 : 2000: 3,741 1,300 CO : : : 1997: 24,993 12,800 1,895 1,340 2,773 20,880 : 1998: 25,360 12,000 1,930 1,615 2,615 21,130 : 1999: 25,762 12,900 1,971 1,705 2,967 21,090 : 2000: 27,972 13,000 ID : : : 1997: 140,314 69,500 8,700 1,130 9,258 129,926 : 1998: 138,000 66,000 8,300 1,280 9,756 126,964 : 1999: 133,330 65,000 8,700 1,150 9,300 122,880 : 2000: 152,320 75,000 ME : : : 1997: 19,080 10,300 1,430 275 1,760 17,045 : 1998: 18,060 8,450 1,430 360 1,740 15,960 : 1999: 17,813 9,400 1,408 330 1,850 15,633 : 2000: 17,920 8,700 MI : : : 1997: 14,250 3,800 864 200 1,300 12,750 : 1998: 14,648 4,100 888 200 1,348 13,100 : 1999: 14,963 4,200 1,005 213 1,300 13,450 : 2000: 14,963 3,400 MN : : : 1997: 20,440 8,800 1,640 450 1,717 18,273 : 1998: 21,170 8,900 1,400 254 1,440 19,476 : 1999: 18,020 6,200 1,254 170 1,980 15,870 : 2000: 21,240 10,100 MT : : : 1997: 3,328 2,350 244 152 208 2,968 : 1998: 3,180 2,650 253 145 265 2,770 : 1999: 3,325 2,700 288 151 213 2,961 : 2000: 3,503 3,000 NE 1/ : : : 1997: 7,761 462 203 380 7,178 : 1998: 8,175 469 166 881 7,128 : 1999: 8,904 598 209 742 7,953 : 2000: 10,127 NY : : : 1997: 7,150 800 607 139 315 6,696 : 1998: 7,290 800 572 110 330 6,850 : 1999: 6,758 1,300 484 95 323 6,340 : 2000: 5,964 700 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, March 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 1997-2000 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Mar 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 1997: 22,000 9,300 2,142 355 2,266 19,379 : 1998: 28,670 12,800 2,178 395 2,840 25,435 : 1999: 26,400 9,000 2,232 340 4,600 21,460 : 2000: 26,950 11,100 OH 1/ : : : 1997: 1,170 105 8 37 1,125 : 1998: 1,200 100 8 37 1,155 : 1999: 987 84 6 60 921 : 2000: 1,134 OR : : : 1997: 27,319 13,000 1,405 195 1,555 25,569 : 1998: 26,229 13,000 1,334 195 2,206 23,828 : 1999: 28,020 15,500 1,368 239 1,607 26,174 : 2000: 30,683 17,300 PA : : : 1997: 3,173 890 276 78 176 2,919 : 1998: 3,360 700 261 50 252 3,058 : 1999: 3,080 700 270 31 172 2,877 : 2000: 3,510 700 WA : : : 1997: 88,160 29,500 3,840 300 6,400 81,460 : 1998: 93,225 29,500 4,080 300 6,500 86,425 : 1999: 95,200 28,000 4,200 300 6,500 88,400 : 2000: 108,000 40,000 WI : : : 1997: 30,175 10,600 1,764 275 1,448 28,452 : 1998: 30,895 11,000 1,720 265 2,360 28,270 : 1999: 34,000 10,600 1,720 310 1,420 32,270 : 2000: 33,800 10,500 Other S: : : 1997: 2,430 : 1998: 2,150 : 1999: 2,320 : 2000: 3,520 15 Sts : : : 1997: 413,513 175,870 25,580 5,120 29,933 378,460 : 1998: 423,170 173,650 25,072 5,372 33,290 384,508 : 1999: 420,567 169,620 25,761 5,266 33,417 381,884 : 2000: 461,827 198,320 : : Fall St: 1997: 423,190 26,224 5,260 30,841 387,089 : 1998: 432,737 25,657 5,584 34,231 392,922 : 1999: 429,847 26,355 5,377 34,260 390,210 : 2000: 470,504 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks from States left blank combined into "Other States". Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 1997-1999 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 1997 : : 1998 : 13 12 13 11 10 12 10 8 7 4 : 1999 : 5 12 14 10 12 9 10 10 11 7 CO : : : 1997 : 1 4 8 9 11 10 8 11 11 10 10 7 : 1998 : 5 8 9 12 10 10 12 11 10 9 4 : 1999 : 4 7 10 10 10 10 12 11 10 10 6 ID : : : 1997 : 6 15 12 8 8 8 6 7 7 9 7 7 : 1998 : 6 11 20 6 6 7 6 8 9 9 6 6 : 1999 : 3 15 18 6 6 5 7 9 10 9 6 6 ME : : : 1997 : 1 6 7 8 8 10 9 15 17 10 9 : 1998 : 1 7 9 9 9 10 11 14 12 9 9 : 1999 : 3 6 7 7 9 10 10 12 16 11 9 MI : : : 1997 : 3 9 10 8 11 11 11 12 11 8 6 : 1998 : 3 8 9 9 9 12 14 9 12 10 5 : 1999 : 3 7 8 9 15 12 9 9 9 11 6 2 MN : : : 1997 : 5 22 25 11 7 5 6 7 7 5 : 1998 : 11 16 14 10 5 7 6 8 9 6 8 : 1999 : 8 12 13 11 8 8 7 9 8 6 5 5 NY : : : 1997 : 8 15 15 16 15 13 9 5 3 1 : 1998 : 7 16 16 16 15 11 8 6 4 1 : 1999 : 4 21 18 11 9 10 8 9 10 ND : : : 1997 : 1 12 16 13 8 12 9 9 8 6 5 1 : 1998 : 3 13 14 10 10 8 7 7 9 10 6 3 : 1999 : 2 13 20 7 10 12 7 7 8 7 6 1 OR : : : 1997 : 1 9 14 30 8 6 5 6 6 5 6 3 1 : 1998 : 2 12 15 27 8 5 4 5 6 6 4 4 2 : 1999 : 2 13 10 21 7 6 7 8 7 7 7 3 2 PA : : : 1997 : 1 13 13 12 12 12 10 8 7 8 3 1 : 1998 : 14 12 11 12 15 11 9 7 6 2 1 : 1999 : 14 13 12 12 13 11 9 7 6 2 1 WA : : : 1997 : 12 14 31 7 4 4 4 6 6 6 5 1 : 1998 : 16 13 25 7 3 5 6 7 5 6 6 1 : 1999 : 17 14 24 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 1 WI : : : 1997 : 1 7 17 14 10 9 8 11 10 7 4 2 : 1998 : 1 6 18 13 10 10 10 9 9 8 4 2 : 1999 : 2 7 16 12 11 9 8 10 9 9 5 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potato Stocks Record High, Up 17 Percent March 1, 2001 potato stocks totaled a record high 198 million cwt, up 17 percent from last year and 14 percent above two years ago. Potatoes in storage accounted for 43 percent of the fall storage States' production, up 3 percentage points from a year ago. This year's record high stocks exceeded the previous record set March 1, 1997 by 5 percent. Disappearance from the start of harvest to March 1 was a record high 264 million cwt. This disappearance was up 5 percent from last year and 4 percent above the previous record set during the 1996 season. The disappearance during February was 36.7 million cwt, down 2 percent from the record high February disappearance established last year. Shrink and loss to this point in the season was 31.5 million cwt, up 26 percent from last year and 27 percent above two years ago. This disappearance and loss total includes potatoes diverted and destroyed by growers under a cooperative program to reduce surpluses. Processing of 2000 crop potatoes totaled 132 million cwt to March 1, up 2 percent from the 1999 crop and 1 percent above two years ago in comparable States. In February, processors used 18.6 million cwt of potatoes, down 8 percent from last year in comparable States. Eastern States stored 10.1 million cwt of potatoes on March 1, 2001, down 11 percent from a year ago but 2 percent above two years ago. Maine's holdings were down 7 percent and New York's stocks were off 46 percent from last year. Pennsylvania's storage was equal to last year. Central States accounted for 38.6 million cwt of potato stocks this March 1, 19 percent above March 2000 but 1 percent below 1999. Minnesota's stocks were up 63 percent and the Nebraska-Ohio combination was up 52 percent. Stocks in North Dakota were up 23 percent from last year. Wisconsin's stocks were down 1 percent and Michigan's potato stocks were 19 percent below a year ago. Western States held 150 million cwt of potatoes in storage on March 1, 2001, up 19 percent from last year and 20 percent above 1999. Washington's potato stocks were up 43 percent from a year ago, while Idaho's stocks increased 15 percent, and Oregon's were up 12 percent. Colorado's stocks were up 1 percent from last year and Montana was up 11 percent. California's potato stocks were down 28 percent from a year ago. Reliability of March 1 Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 stocks estimate is 3.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 198 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.7 percent or approximately 7.3 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.4 percent or approximately 12.7 million cwt. The 10-year (1991-2000) record of differences between the March 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 5.0 million cwt, ranging from 0.45 million cwt above the final to 13.1 million cwt below the final. During the 10-year period, the March 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 7 years and above 3 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final March 1 Stocks, United States, 1990-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1990 : 126,030 93.7 134,470 1991 : 146,180 100.2 145,820 1992 : 139,665 91.4 152,795 1993 : 146,080 95.2 153,435 1994 : 163,305 96.3 169,570 1995 : 152,255 97.6 156,020 1996 : 184,565 97.5 189,210 1997 : 170,325 96.8 175,870 1998 : 174,100 100.3 173,650 1999 : 170,050 100.3 169,620 2000 : 198,320 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Note: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.9 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage and loss and home use accounted for the remaining 9.1 percent. Most seed for use the following crop year is on hand and remains part of stocks until moved or planted. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1995-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1995 : 404,852 370,679 91.6 34,173 8.4 30,561 1996 : 454,388 408,247 89.8 46,141 10.2 29,138 1997 : 423,190 387,089 91.5 36,101 8.5 29,975 1998 : 432,737 392,922 90.8 39,815 9.2 29,217 1999 : 429,847 390,210 90.8 39,637 9.2 29,726 2000 : 470,504 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on April 12, 2001. 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