Pot 1-2 (5-01) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released May 14, 2001, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. May Potato Stocks Record High, Up 28 Percent The 15 major potato States held a record high 111 million cwt of potatoes on May 1, 2001, up 28 percent from last year and 8 percent above the previous record set May 1, 1997. Potatoes in storage accounted for 24 percent of the 2000 fall storage States' production, up 3 percentage points from a year ago. Disappearance, at a record high 350 million cwt, was up 5 percent from last year and 3 percent above the previous record set during the 1996 season. Potatoes used for processing to May 1 totaled 170 million cwt, up 1 percent from last year in comparable States. April processing of 18.7 million cwt was 2 percent above last year in comparable States. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1991-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 376,954 249,410 217,300 185,490 153,435 115,170 72,860 1994 : 410,839 273,290 238,560 202,470 169,570 129,825 87,600 1995 : 394,785 256,710 223,550 189,360 156,020 115,855 75,870 1996 : 443,704 295,100 261,320 226,080 189,210 147,635 103,210 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 : 461,827 309,520 272,960 235,050 198,320 154,030 111,425 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 1997-2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 2/: Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal: 1997 : 26,880 33,950 41,050 49,470 57,620 65,750 91,450 1998 : 27,510 34,700 42,670 51,210 60,040 68,550 76,410 92,860 1999 : 27,970 34,490 40,790 49,220 57,820 66,080 74,110 88,210 2000 : 29,290 35,720 43,470 50,580 58,910 66,760 : ME 3/ : 1997 : 1,250 1,720 2,265 2,735 3,355 3,900 5,870 1998 : 1,430 1,935 2,530 2,985 3,595 4,180 4,705 5,945 1999 : 1,270 1,700 2,385 3,070 3,765 4,560 5,150 6,670 2000 : 1,845 2,475 3,105 3,695 4,225 4,790 : WA & OR-Oth: 1997 : 28,580 33,990 38,690 46,400 53,720 59,780 76,930 1998 : 33,630 38,890 45,650 53,290 60,930 67,180 74,190 83,730 1999 : 33,320 39,620 45,500 53,350 61,080 67,230 74,840 83,210 2000 : 34,770 40,970 47,720 55,250 62,860 69,920 : Oth Sts 4/ : 1997 : 11,645 13,960 17,115 19,905 23,515 26,365 37,842 1998 : 11,570 14,465 18,030 20,850 24,850 28,190 31,365 39,865 1999 : 12,455 15,035 17,950 20,855 24,305 27,220 30,410 36,435 2000 : 12,650 16,235 18,625 22,030 25,420 28,680 : Total : 1997 : 68,355 83,620 99,120 118,510 138,210 155,795 212,092 1998 : 74,140 89,990 108,880 128,335 149,415 168,100 186,670 222,400 1999 : 75,015 90,845 106,625 126,495 146,970 165,090 184,510 214,525 2000 : 78,555 95,400 112,920 131,555 151,415 170,150 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, and WI. 2/ Data not available prior to 1998. 3/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 4/ MN, NV, ND, SD, and WI in 2000. MI, MN, ND, and WI in 1997-1999. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on May 1, 2000-2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 1999 : Crop of 2000 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : May 1, : of : Prod : May 1, : of : : 2000 : Prod : : 2001 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 4,005 1,100 27 3,741 800 21 CO : 25,762 7,400 29 27,972 7,400 26 ID : 133,330 36,000 27 152,320 45,000 30 ME : 17,813 4,400 25 17,920 4,000 22 MI : 14,963 1,300 9 14,963 700 5 MN : 18,020 3,200 18 21,240 5,800 27 MT : 3,325 300 9 3,503 750 21 NE 2/ : 8,904 10,127 NY 2/ : 6,758 5,964 ND : 26,400 4,500 17 26,950 6,300 23 OH 2/ : 987 1,134 OR : 28,020 9,000 32 30,683 10,000 33 PA : 3,080 150 5 3,510 100 3 WA : 95,200 14,500 15 108,000 26,000 24 WI : 34,000 4,400 13 33,800 3,700 11 : Other States : 665 875 : 15 States : 420,567 86,915 21 461,827 111,425 24 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and seed to plant 2001 potatoes; 2000 crop seed usage total 29.7 million cwt. 2/ Nebraska, New York, and Ohio combined into "Other States". Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 15 Fall Storage States, 1997-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/: Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 1997 : 15.3 17.3 19.3 21.3 23.5 25.6 29.9 1998 : 18.4 20.6 22.7 24.7 26.9 29.0 30.9 33.3 1999 : 18.2 21.0 23.0 25.0 27.1 29.2 31.1 33.4 2000 : 19.5 22.5 27.9 31.5 35.4 37.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. Fall Potatoes: Production, May 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 1997-2000 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: May 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 1997: 4,200 1,200 206 20 340 3,840 : 1998: 3,708 900 157 29 720 2,959 : 1999: 4,005 1,100 179 17 383 3,605 : 2000: 3,741 800 CO : : : 1997: 24,993 7,700 1,895 1,340 2,773 20,880 : 1998: 25,360 6,600 1,930 1,615 2,615 21,130 : 1999: 25,762 7,400 1,971 1,705 2,967 21,090 : 2000: 27,972 7,400 ID : : : 1997: 140,314 41,500 8,700 1,130 9,258 129,926 : 1998: 138,000 37,000 8,300 1,280 9,756 126,964 : 1999: 133,330 36,000 8,700 1,150 9,300 122,880 : 2000: 152,320 45,000 ME : : : 1997: 19,080 4,500 1,430 275 1,760 17,045 : 1998: 18,060 3,800 1,430 360 1,740 15,960 : 1999: 17,813 4,400 1,408 330 1,850 15,633 : 2000: 17,920 4,000 MI : : : 1997: 14,250 1,000 864 200 1,300 12,750 : 1998: 14,648 800 888 200 1,348 13,100 : 1999: 14,963 1,300 1,005 213 1,300 13,450 : 2000: 14,963 700 MN : : : 1997: 20,440 4,500 1,640 450 1,717 18,273 : 1998: 21,170 4,300 1,400 254 1,440 19,476 : 1999: 18,020 3,200 1,254 170 1,980 15,870 : 2000: 21,240 5,800 MT : : : 1997: 3,328 150 244 152 208 2,968 : 1998: 3,180 290 253 145 265 2,770 : 1999: 3,325 300 288 151 213 2,961 : 2000: 3,503 750 NE 1/ : : : 1997: 7,761 462 203 380 7,178 : 1998: 8,175 469 166 881 7,128 : 1999: 8,904 598 209 742 7,953 : 2000: 10,127 NY 1/ : : : 1997: 7,150 100 607 139 315 6,696 : 1998: 7,290 75 572 110 330 6,850 : 1999: 6,758 484 95 323 6,340 : 2000: 5,964 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, May 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 1997-2000 Crop Years (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: May 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 1997: 22,000 4,700 2,142 355 2,266 19,379 : 1998: 28,670 7,500 2,178 395 2,840 25,435 : 1999: 26,400 4,500 2,232 340 4,600 21,460 : 2000: 26,950 6,300 OH 1/ : : : 1997: 1,170 105 8 37 1,125 : 1998: 1,200 100 8 37 1,155 : 1999: 987 84 6 60 921 : 2000: 1,134 OR : : : 1997: 27,319 6,500 1,405 195 1,555 25,569 : 1998: 26,229 7,000 1,334 195 2,206 23,828 : 1999: 28,020 9,000 1,368 239 1,607 26,174 : 2000: 30,683 10,000 PA : : : 1997: 3,173 190 276 78 176 2,919 : 1998: 3,360 130 261 50 252 3,058 : 1999: 3,080 150 270 31 172 2,877 : 2000: 3,510 100 WA : : : 1997: 88,160 16,000 3,840 300 6,400 81,460 : 1998: 93,225 14,500 4,080 300 6,500 86,425 : 1999: 95,200 14,500 4,200 300 6,500 88,400 : 2000: 108,000 26,000 WI : : : 1997: 30,175 4,500 1,764 275 1,448 28,452 : 1998: 30,895 4,800 1,720 265 2,360 28,270 : 1999: 34,000 4,400 1,720 310 1,420 32,270 : 2000: 33,800 3,700 Other Sts : : : 1997: 300 : 1998: 200 : 1999: 665 : 2000: 875 15 Sts : : : 1997: 413,513 92,840 25,580 5,120 29,933 378,460 : 1998: 423,170 87,895 25,072 5,372 33,290 384,508 : 1999: 420,567 86,915 25,761 5,266 33,417 381,884 : 2000: 461,827 111,425 Fall Sts : : : 1997: 423,190 26,224 5,260 30,841 387,089 : 1998: 432,737 25,657 5,584 34,231 392,922 : 1999: 429,847 26,355 5,377 34,260 390,210 : 2000: 470,504 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Nebraska, New York, and Ohio combined into "Other States". Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 1997-1999 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 1997 : : 1998 : 13 12 13 11 10 12 10 8 7 4 : 1999 : 5 12 14 10 12 9 10 10 11 7 CO : : : 1997 : 1 4 8 9 11 10 8 11 11 10 10 7 : 1998 : 5 8 9 12 10 10 12 11 10 9 4 : 1999 : 4 7 10 10 10 10 12 11 10 10 6 ID : : : 1997 : 6 15 12 8 8 8 6 7 7 9 7 7 : 1998 : 6 11 20 6 6 7 6 8 9 9 6 6 : 1999 : 3 15 18 6 6 5 7 9 10 9 6 6 ME : : : 1997 : 1 6 7 8 8 10 9 15 17 10 9 : 1998 : 1 7 9 9 9 10 11 14 12 9 9 : 1999 : 3 6 7 7 9 10 10 12 16 11 9 MI : : : 1997 : 3 9 10 8 11 11 11 12 11 8 6 : 1998 : 3 8 9 9 9 12 14 9 12 10 5 : 1999 : 3 7 8 9 15 12 9 9 9 11 6 2 MN : : : 1997 : 5 22 25 11 7 5 6 7 7 5 : 1998 : 11 16 14 10 5 7 6 8 9 6 8 : 1999 : 8 12 13 11 8 8 7 9 8 6 5 5 NY : : : 1997 : 8 15 15 16 15 13 9 5 3 1 : 1998 : 7 16 16 16 15 11 8 6 4 1 : 1999 : 4 21 18 11 9 10 8 9 10 ND : : : 1997 : 1 12 16 13 8 12 9 9 8 6 5 1 : 1998 : 3 13 14 10 10 8 7 7 9 10 6 3 : 1999 : 2 13 20 7 10 12 7 7 8 7 6 1 OR : : : 1997 : 1 9 14 30 8 6 5 6 6 5 6 3 1 : 1998 : 2 12 15 27 8 5 4 5 6 6 4 4 2 : 1999 : 2 13 10 21 7 6 7 8 7 7 7 3 2 PA : : : 1997 : 1 13 13 12 12 12 10 8 7 8 3 1 : 1998 : 14 12 11 12 15 11 9 7 6 2 1 : 1999 : 14 13 12 12 13 11 9 7 6 2 1 WA : : : 1997 : 12 14 31 7 4 4 4 6 6 6 5 1 : 1998 : 16 13 25 7 3 5 6 7 5 6 6 1 : 1999 : 17 14 24 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 1 WI : : : 1997 : 1 7 17 14 10 9 8 11 10 7 4 2 : 1998 : 1 6 18 13 10 10 10 9 9 8 4 2 : 1999 : 2 7 16 12 11 9 8 10 9 9 5 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potato Stocks Record High, Up 28 Percent May 1, 2001 potato stocks totaled a record high 111 million cwt, up 28 percent from last year and 27 percent above two years ago. Potatoes in storage accounted for 24 percent of the fall storage States' production, up 3 percentage points from a year ago . This year's record high stocks exceeded the previous record set May 1, 1997 by 8 percent. Disappearance from the start of harvest to May 1 was a record high 350 million cwt. This disappearance was up 5 percent from last year and 3 percent above the previous record set during the 1996 season. The disappearance during April was 42.6 million c wt, up 3 percent from last year but 4 percent below the record in April 1997. Shrink and loss, to this point in the season, was 37.6 million cwt, up 29 percent from the last two years. This disappearance and loss total includes potatoes diverted and destroyed by grower s under a cooperative program to reduce surpluses. Potatoes sold and disposed of under a government program are included in the disappearance. Processing of 2000 crop potatoes totaled 170 million cwt to May 1, up 1 percent from last year in comparable States. In April, processors used 18.7 million cwt of potatoes, a gain of 2 percent from last year in comparable States. Eastern States stored 4.13 million cwt of potatoes on May 1, 2001, down 11 percent from a year ago but 3 percent above two years ago. Maine's holdings were down 9 percent and Pennsylvania's storage was down 33 percent from last year. Central States accounted for 17.4 million cwt of potato stocks this May 1, 24 percent above last year but 1 percent below 1999. Minnesota's stocks were up 81 percent and stocks in North Dakota were up 40 percent from last year. Wisconsin's stocks were down 16 percent and Michigan's potato stocks were 46 percent below a year ago. Western States held 90.0 million cwt of potatoes in storage on May 1, 2001, up 32 percent from the last year and 36 percent above two years ago. Washington's potato stocks were up 79 percent from a year ago, while Idaho's were up 25 percent. Oregon's s tocks were up 11 percent and Montana's swelled 150 percent. Colorado's stocks were equal to last year but California's were down 27 percent. Reliability of May 1 Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the May 1 potato stocks estimate is 7.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 111 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 7.3 percent or approximately 8.1 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 12.6 percent or about 14.0 million cwt. The 10-year (1991-2000) record of differences between the May 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 4.5 million cwt, ranging from 0.91 million cwt above the final to 11.5 million cwt below the final. During the 10-year period, the May 1 es timate has been below the final estimate 9 years and above 1 year. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final May 1 Stocks, United States, 1990-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1990 : 54,400 86.3 63,040 1991 : 70,020 101.3 69,110 1992 : 63,550 84.7 75,040 1993 : 68,060 93.4 72,860 1994 : 81,495 93.0 87,600 1995 : 72,210 95.2 75,870 1996 : 100,780 97.6 103,210 1997 : 87,113 93.8 92,840 1998 : 87,640 99.7 87,895 1999 : 85,670 98.6 86,915 2000 : 111,425 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Note: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoe s for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.9 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage and loss and home use accounted for the remaining 9.1 percent. Most seed for use the following crop year is on hand and remains part of stocks until moved or planted. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1995-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : Year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1995 : 404,852 370,679 91.6 34,173 8.4 30,561 1996 : 454,388 408,247 89.8 46,141 10.2 29,138 1997 : 423,190 387,089 91.5 36,101 8.5 29,975 1998 : 432,737 392,922 90.8 39,815 9.2 29,217 1999 : 429,847 390,210 90.8 39,637 9.2 29,726 2000 : 470,504 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on June 14, 2001. 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